THE RETURN OF AHMED OUYAHIA - FUTURE PRESIDENT ?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 000509

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV AG
SUBJECT: THE RETURN OF AHMED OUYAHIA - FUTURE PRESIDENT ?

REF: 07 ALGIERS 1658

Classified By: Ambassador Robert S. Ford; reasons 1.4 (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister and current head of the
ruling coalition National Democratic Rally (RND) party, Ahmed
Ouyahia has recently been tapped by President Bouteflika to
represent him on several high-profile foreign trips and even
representing Bouteflika at the party congress of one of the
ruling coalition parties. Bouteflika had brusquely dismissed
Ouyahia in 2006, and the former PM has been out of government
since. The suddenly elevated profile of Ouyahia has fueled
as much speculation about a powerful future role for Ouyahia
in Bouteflika's government as it has about why Bouteflika has
turned to Ouyahia for these assignments instead of the more
obvious choices, Prime Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem or
Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci. Some here speculate
privately that these unexpected assignments hint that Ouyahia
may well be named vice-president if the Algerian constitution
is changed to establish that post. As vice-president,
Ouyahia would be the likely eventual successor to Bouteflika.
END SUMMARY.

AN AFRICA HAND BECOMES BOUTEFLIKA'S ENVOY
--------------


2. (C) Ouyahia's recent travels began in early April, with
the April 7 announcement on Algerian television that
Bouteflika had appointed him as his personal representative
to the Africa-India summit in New Delhi on April 8 and 9.
Ouyahia then was sent to lead the Algerian delegation at the
12th UNCTAD conference on April 20 in Ghana. Then he was
sent by the Presidency as the head of the Algerian delegation
to an Africa-specific meeting of the UN Security Council on
April 16 in New York. RND spokesperson Miloud Chorfi told us
on April 26 that, given Ouyahia's extensive foreign affairs
experience, "it is normal that his experience is called
upon." Born in 1952, Ouyahia began his career as a diplomat,
becoming known as "Mr. Africa" for his expertise on the
continent. After joining the MFA in 1978, Ouyahia served in
Cote d'Ivoire from 1981, moving on the UN Mission in New
York in 1984. He became Algeria's co-representative to the
Security Council in 1988, then returned to Algiers to serve
as Director General of African Affairs at the MFA. In 1992
he became Ambassador to Mali, helping negotiate a peace
agreement between the Malian government and a Tuareg
rebellion.


3. (C) Ouyahia's career became decidedly more political when
he was nominated as President Liamine Zeroual's Chef de
Cabinet in 1994, then serving in his first of two stints as
Prime Minister from 1994 to 1999. He became the head of the
RND party in 2000, serving as Minister of Justice during
Bouteflika's first term and passing the aggressive Penal Code
of 2001 which is considered tough on Islamist activities.
Bouteflika also tasked Ouyahia with working on the peace
negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a deal was
signed in Algiers in December 2000. Ouyahia served a second
mandate as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2006, resigning over
political differences with Bouteflika's flagship National
Liberation Front (FLN) party.

A MESSAGE TO THE RULING PARTIES?
--------------


4. (C) Press reports have trumpeted Ouyahia's recent travels
as "the comeback of the child prodigy." However, according
to journalist Rosa Mansouri of French-language daily Le Soir
d'Algerie, Ouyahia "is so close to the Army leadership that
he was never really out of the picture." Said Sadi, the
leader of the opposition Rally for Culture and Democracy
(RCD) party, categorized Bouteflika's Ouyahia gambit in blunt
terms, saying "Bouteflika is a person who uses and discards
people whenever it suits him" and is not sending a political
message in turning to the former Prime Minister instead of
Belkhadem. However, RND insider Noureddine Benbrahem, also
head of the Algerian Muslim Scouts, told us on April 29 that
Bouteflika has become slowly fed up with the internal
grumblings of a visibly divided FLN (reftel) and may have
turned to Ouyahia in an effort to pressure Belkhadem and the
FLN to get their act together. At a time of popular
discontent about unemployment and uncertainty over an as-yet
unannounced third term drive for Bouteflika, Mansouri

ALGIERS 00000509 002.2 OF 002


conceded that, with his reputation for organization and
efficiency, there was no one better than Ouyahia "to create
the perception of stability."

COMMENT: BORN WITH A MOUSTACHE
--------------


5. (C) In popular parlance, Ouyahia and his RND are often
referred to cynically as "born with a moustache" - political
entities that emerged fully prepared from within the FLN's
historical single-party machine rather than developing
outside of it as an independent force. Given Ouyahia's tough
stance on Islamists dating back to his first tour as Prime
Minister in the 1990s, and the economic woes Algeria suffered
during his Prime Ministerial tours, Ouyahia is not the most
popular political figure in Algeria. His surprise speech at
the opening of the (Muslim Brotherhood) Movement for a
Society of Peace (MSP) party congress on April 29 was an
interesting exercise in political outreach, Algerian style.
Ouyahia extended an olive branch to the MSP by praising key
figures of the party's past and called MSP leader Abujarra
Soltani "my dear brother and partner" when relations between
the two men have not always been warm. No representative of
the FLN spoke at the opening of the MSP congress, by
contrast. Ouyahia's name is one of those many believe to be
on a short list of candidates for vice-president, should the
rumored constitutional amendment to create the position
actually take place. If he were named vice-president, he
would be the strong favorite to replace Bouteflika whenever
Bouteflika leaves Mouradia Palace.

FORD