ERITREA: OPPOSITION GROUPS EXPLORING FORMATION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000084

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: KDEM PREL PBTS ET ER
SUBJECT: ERITREA: OPPOSITION GROUPS EXPLORING FORMATION OF
NEW UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3101


B. ADDIS ABABA 3016

Classified By: Amb. Donald Yamamoto for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. On January 9, PolCouns and PolOff met
with Noor M. Idris, Chairman of the opposition Eritrean Nahda
Party (ENP),to discuss current opposition efforts to form a
new, more inclusive umbrella group. Noor explained that at
least 11 opposition parties would hold a conference in Addis
Ababa starting January 15 to lay the groundwork for a new
alliance of opposition parties. The goal of the conference
would be to gain consent from the parties for the concept of
a new organization and to elect a preparatory committee to
move it forward. If successful, Eritrean opposition parties,
religious leaders, civil society, NGOs, and some diplomatic
representatives would be invited to a conference in 2-3
months where the new umbrella group would be formally
established. Lastly, Noor hoped that Washington would send a
delegate to the conference or provide a written statement to
be read to the delegates in hopes of motivating the parties
to support a new alliance. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
PARTIES TO HOLD JANUARY 15 PREPARATORY CONFERENCE
-------------- --------------


2. (C/NF) Noor opened by stating that representatives from
at least 11 Eritrean opposition groups were preparing to hold
a conference in Addis Ababa beginning January 15 to lay the
groundwork for the formation of a new Eritrean opposition
umbrella group after the last attempt, the Eritrea Democratic
Alliance (EDA),dissolved in February 2007 (Ref A). The
eleven groups included the three parties from Bloc-1, the
seven parties from Bloc-2, and the ENP. He also said that
Adhanom Gebremariam's Eritrean People's Movement and the
Eritrean People's Congress (formerly Eritrean Islamic Jihad)
may also be invited to participate.


3. (C/NF) The goal of the conference would be to gain
formal consent from all parties to the idea of the formation
of a new umbrella organization and then to elect a
preparatory/steering committee to guide the process. The
steering committee would be tasked with 1) drafting a charter
for the new organization, 2) drafting the bylaws, and 3)
drawing up a list of invitees for a follow-on conference in
2-3 months where the parties would formally adopt the work of
the steering committee and establish the new organization.
Noor said that the goal would be to invite not only
opposition groups but also civil society, NGOs, religious
leaders, elders, and diplomatic representatives. Noor
suggested that the steering committee would serve as a point
of contact for the diplomatic community, coordinate public
relations, and in the event the Isaias government fell in the
interim, serve as a transitional Eritrean government until a
national conference could be held.


4. (C/NF) Noor commented that he would be meeting with
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum on January 14 and he
intended to ask the Ethiopian government to pressure the
parties to ensure a successful conference outcome. Noor said
one of the reasons the EDA fell apart was because of a lack
of Ethiopian intervention in pressing them to work together.
Noor speculated that the conference might last as long as
five days, but that if nothing was accomplished in that time
frame, there was little hope that the Eritrean opposition
could ever come together as a cohesive unit.


5. (C/NF) Lastly, Noor inquired whether the United States
might send a representative to the conference or provide a
written statement to be read to the assembly. He emphasized
that any expression of support from Washington would help
motivate the parties to accept a new alliance.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C/NF) The long-outstanding differences between the

ADDIS ABAB 00000084 002 OF 002


opposition groups (Ref A),which do not appear to have been
resolved yet, suggests that even if the parties agree to the
formation of a new umbrella organization it will remain weak.
Nevertheless, this initiative appears to represent the only
current way forward for the formation of any real political
opposition to the Isaias government and the chance for
democracy in Eritrea. Post recommends Washington consider
providing a written statement to be delivered at the
conference. This may be a good opportunity to send a strong
message in support of democracy and good governance for
Eritrea and deliver a tough message to the parties to
coordinate for the good of the Eritrean people. Post will
continue to monitor Eritrean opposition activities and report
on the outcome of the January conference as warranted. END
COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO