ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: UNMEE OFFICE HEAD SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000506

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: UNMEE OFFICE HEAD SAYS
REGROUPING GOING WELL

REF: 08 ADDIS ABABA 117

Classified By: Amb. Donald Yamamoto. Reason: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 26, United Nations Mission in
Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) Head of Addis Ababa Office
Joseph Stephanides told visiting Combined Joint Task
Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) POLAD and PolOff that UNMEE's
relocation to Asmara was going well and that UNMEE was in no
danger of running out of food. Stephanides speculated that
in his personal opinion Eritrean President Isaias would let
UNMEE leave as long as it did not redeploy to Ethiopia. He
also advocated the dissolution of UNMEE and that the UN
should establish a new observer mission to be placed on the
Ethiopian side of the border. Stephanides assessed that the
Ethiopian government was not looking for war, and he
disclosed that the Japanese government was looking to play a
role in mediating the Ethiopian-Eritrean impasse. Lastly, he
said the Russian DCM to Ethiopia told him that the Ethiopian
government was attempting to establish an Eritrean government
in exile from the Eritrean opposition that could be used to
justify Ethiopian military action against the Isaias
government. END SUMMARY.

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UNMEE'S "REGROUPING" GOING WELL, FOOD SITUATION OVERBLOWN
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2. (C) Stephanides opened by reporting that UNMEE's
relocation to Asmara was going well and that all UNMEE
personnel would be in the city by the end of February. He
noted that the Secretary General would be issuing a report on
the situation within days. When queried, Stephanides said
UNMEE was in no danger of running out of food, but that the
UN had exaggerated the issue in order to pressure the
Eritrean Government. He stated that Asmara was refusing
permission for UNMEE's contractor to distribute the food to
UNMEE team sites, but that UNMEE itself had now taken over
food transportation from Massawa to Asmara. He added that
President Isaias had made no attempt to starve the force.

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"ISAIAS WILL LET UNMEE LEAVE"
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3. (C) Stephanides speculated that in his personal opinion
Isaias was "too smart" to hold UNMEE. He said UNMEE probably
would be forced to leave through its initial entry points at
Asmara Airport, Massawa, and Assab. Stephanides opined that
Isaias was surprised by UNMEE's attempt to rapidly relocate
to Ethiopia and that Isaias was concerned that the United
States was trying to "get UNMEE out of the way" so that
Ethiopia could attack Eritrea.

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ADVOCATES DISSOLVING UNMEE, STARTING OVER
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4. (C) On the issue of where to go next, Stephanides said
that in his view the UN should "clear the deck" and start
over with a new mission, new mandate, and new staff. He
asserted that the current UNMEE staff was not configured for
what should now be a monitoring mission on the Ethiopian side
of the border and that new actors would allow Isaias to
re-engage. He said that the infantry battalions were
unnecessary in Ethiopia and that the current force commander
was incompetent and that relocating him to Ethiopia would not
solve the problem. He emphasized that the new force should
be staffed primarily from countries who could provide highly
trained "literate" officers capable of performing military
intelligence tasks.


5. (C) However, Stephanides cautioned that careful work
would be required to convince the Ethiopians to accept such a
force. He was adamant that the Ethiopians would never accept
a force that looked like it was deployed to monitor the
Ethiopian military. He also said Ethiopian Chief of Defense
Staff General Samora would reject a force that occupied fixed
positions or was a hindrance or imposition to the military.


ADDIS ABAB 00000506 002 OF 002


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SPECULATES ETHIOPIA NOT LOOKING FOR WAR
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6. (C) Stephanides assessed that in his personal opinion
the Ethiopian government was not looking for war and that
taking military action was "more useful as an option than in
exercise." He insisted that Ethiopia would act if they
believed it was in their interest, but that they were not
motivated to attack Eritrea. He suggested that the United
States should help reinforce Ethiopia's no war policy.

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JAPAN LOOKING FOR BORDER ROLE
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7. (C) Stephanides confided that the Japanese government
was quietly looking for a diplomatic role on the border
issue. He said the Japanese government had approached him
seeking an opportunity to put forward a Japanese official as
some type of special envoy if the political conditions
improved to the point where such an arrangement might show
promise.

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ETHIOPIA LOOKING TO STAND-UP ERITREAN GOVERNMENT IN EXILE
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8. (C) Lastly, Stephanides disclosed that the Russian DCM
to Ethiopia, who he said often exceeded Moscow's
instructions, told Stephanides that the Ethiopian government
was attempting to set up an Eritrean government in exile with
the Eritrean opposition. The Russian told Stephanides that
once established, the government in exile could openly call
for Ethiopian assistance and give Ethiopia international
justification for removing Eritrean President Isaias. (Note:
A counselor at the Russian Embassy here separately told
Embassy officers the same thing.)

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Post concurs that work will have to be done to sell
a reconfigured or new UN mission to the Ethiopian government
that would sit only on the Ethiopian side of the border. As
Post has previously reported (REF),Prime Minister Meles sees
little utility in UNMEE once it departs Eritrea.


10. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. Post has regular contact with
the Eritrean opposition groups and there is little secret
that the opposition hopes to establish an organization
capable of serving as an interim government in the event the
Isaias government falls, but we have no information to
corroborate the assertion that the Ethiopian government
intends to use the opposition as justification to remove
Isaias. Eritrean opposition members have repeatedly told
Embassy officers that Ethiopian support for the opposition
risks severely undermining the opposition's legitimacy in the
eyes of the Eritrean people. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO