ERITREAN OPPOSITION PARTIES AGREE TO FORM NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000216

SIPDIS

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SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2018
TAGS: KDEM PREL PBTS ET ER
SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION PARTIES AGREE TO FORM NEW
UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 84

B. ADDIS ABABA 3101

C. ADDIS ABABA 3016

Classified By: Amb. Donald Yamamoto for Reason 1.4 (D).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. On January 24, Ambassador and Embassy
Officers met with the newly appointed three-man Liaison
Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) Secretariat--Hussein
Khalifa of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF),Mengesteab
Asmerom of the Eritrean Liberation Front-Revolutionary
Council (ELF-RC),and Nur Idris of the Eritrean Nahda Party
(ENP)--to discuss the results of the Eritrean Democratic
Alliance (EDA) constituent parties' January 15-18 opposition
conference in Addis Ababa. Hussein said that the conference
had been a success and that the EDA, now a grouping of 13
opposition parties, would hold an open congress beginning
March 30 in Addis Ababa to stand up the new umbrella
organization with participation from Eritrean civil society,
religious groups, diplomatic missions, and the media.
Mengesteab reported that the goal of the group was to
overthrow the government of President Isaias by popular
uprising. He said that Ethiopia did not want a war with
Eritrea and all three leaders agreed that Eritreans would
unite against any Ethiopian occupation, even if it was to
oust Isaias. None of the three wanted to be seen as an
Ethiopian puppet. Post recommends Washington consider
providing a written statement and or sending USG
representation to the upcoming conference. END SUMMARY.

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OPPOSITION TO HOLD CONGRESS ON MARCH 30
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2. (C/NF) Hussein opened by announcing that the January
15-18 conference (REF A) successfully concluded with an
agreement by the 11 Eritrean opposition parties of the EDA to
form a new umbrella organization to be stood up at a March 30
congress in Addis Ababa. He noted that the two EDA Blocs
agreed to reunite for the common purpose of overthrowing the
regime of President Isaias. He said the parties recognized
that their disunity was only benefiting Isaias and hurting
the suffering Eritrean people. (Note: The EDA in February
2007 split into two factions, Bloc-I and Bloc-II when the
parties were unable to agree on who to elect to the
leadership. Mengesteab had been the leader of Bloc-I and
Hussein had been the leader of Bloc-II. Nur is head of the
ENP, the one EDA party that remained outside of the two
blocs.)


3. (C/NF) Mengesteab added that two additional opposition
parties, Adhanom Gebremariam's Eritrean People's Movement
(EPM) and Hassan Salman's Islamic Congress Party (ICP) had
accepted the EDA's invitation to join the larger group and
would attend the upcoming congress. He said that the
congress would be open and would include representatives from
Eritrean civil society, religious figures, prominent
personalities who had played a role in Eritrean affairs,
diplomats, and international media.


4. (C/NF) Nur commented that preparatory committees would
begin meeting in mid-February to prepare the group's charter,
bylaws, and protocols for a transition plan for Eritrea once
Isaias' regime is toppled for discussion and approval by the
broader group at the March congress. The foundation
documents of the former EDA would be used as a starting
point, but he added that, "everything was on the table and
open for discussion," including the name EDA.

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"OUR GOAL IS A PUBLIC UPRISING, NOT ETHIOPIAN INTERVENTION"
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5. (C/NF) When queried concerning the strategy of the
group, Mengesteab replied that the group sought to overthrow
Isaias through a public uprising. He said that when the
opposition was divided, the Eritrean people did not know who
to support and therefore had not seriously resisted Isaias'
government. Megesteab expressed hope that now with the

ADDIS ABAB 00000216 002 OF 002


unification of the opposition the Eritrean people would be
inspired to rise up. Nur added that the group's next step
would be to garner support for the group from the Eritrean
people, neighboring countries, and the international
community. He noted that the new umbrella party would serve
as an interim transitional government when Isaias was deposed.


6. (C/NF) Mengesteab emphasized that one should not expect
to see an army of Eritrean rebels seeking to confront the
Eritrean government in a conventional type war, rather the
opposition would use propaganda to help inform the people and
motivate them to resist. He said the group's limited
military capability would be used primarily for
self-protection as teams crossed the border supplying
information and support to Eritrean opposition members inside
Eritrea. He underscored that the group did not want to make
an enemy of the Eritrean army, but to win them over so that
when the uprising came the army would be an ally or at least
stand aside.


7. (C/NF) When queried whether the unification of the
Eritrean opposition might encourage the Ethiopian government
to remove Isaias by force and install the new umbrella party
into power, all three leaders stressed that only the Eritrean
people were responsible for any change of government in
Asmara. Mengesteab asserted that Ethiopian Prime Minister
Meles does not want war with Eritrea and that it was not in
Ethiopia's interest to do so. He stressed that the Eritrean
people were fiercely nationalistic and that they would unite
to fight any Ethiopian occupation. The leaders also agreed
that in such a scenario, the new umbrella group would appear
to the Eritrean people as an Ethiopian puppet which would
undermine the its credibility.

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COMMENT
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8. (C/NF) Eritrean opposition leaders are clearly sensitive
to suggestions that they are tools of the Ethiopian
government. They claim to understand that they are risking
support from the Eritrean people by appearing too close to
Addis Ababa. However, the warming of relations between
Asmara and Khartoum over the last two years, and the
resulting restrictions on Eritrean opposition activities by
the Sudanese government, has helped push the opposition to
deal more closely with Ethiopia.


9. (C/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED. The upcoming March opposition
congress represents a reasonable chance for the emergence of
a truly unified Eritrean opposition that could form the
building blocks of a new democratic Eritrean government if
the parties are able to overcome a legacy of factionalization
and infighting. Historically, the EDA never functioned as a
unified entity under a common leadership and existed in name
only. The addition of Adhanom's EPM and Hassen's IPC to the
alliance -- the last two significant holdout parties --
represents the unification of all of the leading parties on
both sides of their historic divide between the parties who
split from the original Eritrean Liberation Front who were
driven out of Eritrea by Isaias during the revolution and the
parties who are made up of former members of Isaias' party
and government. Post recommends Washington consider providing
a written statement and or sending USG representation as an
observer to the upcoming congress as a way of sending a
strong message in support of democracy and good governance
for the Eritrean people. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO