PM'S ADVISOR BEREKET DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND VOA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 000215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, AF/PD, AND DRL/AE
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR R -- MJACOBS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV KPAO PREL ET
SUBJECT: PM'S ADVISOR BEREKET DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND VOA
WITH PDAS

REF: ADDIS 4

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a broad-ranging discussion with visiting Africa
Bureau PDAS Linda Thomas-Greenfield on January 17, Special
Advisor to the Prime Minister, BEREKET Simon, offered his
version of history and less than wholly accurate assurances
to comfort the USG that the Government and ruling Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party are
taking all possible steps to establish a level playing
field and to conduct Ethiopia's coming local elections in a
free and fair manner. Despite sensitive reports to Post
otherwise, BEREKET argued that considerations for parole
for two still detained civil society leaders remains solely
a judicial decision. Confronted by the PDAS's extremely
direct inquiry into Ethiopian Government (GoE) plans to stop
jamming the Voice of America (VOA) radio signal, BEREKET
vacillated between denying that the GoE is jamming that
signal and arguing that the GoE must take any steps it deems
appropriate to counter VoA's attacks "aimed at destabilizing
Ethiopia." End summary.

ELECTIONS PLANNING GOING SWIMMINGLY...
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2. (SBU) Africa Bureau PDAS Linda Thomas-Greenfield opened
her January 17 meeting with BEREKET Simon, EPRDF Central
Committee member and senior advisor to the Prime Minister,
by inquiring about preparations for the local elections
scheduled for April 13 and 20, 2008. BEREKET replied
confidently by highlighting the new electoral law passed in
June, consultations with the opposition, and preparations
by the new National Electoral Board (NEB) installed in
July. In an effort to highlight the ruling party's
magnanimity, BEREKET argued that the electoral law was
prepared through a process of broad discussions with all
parties in Parliament and that all "except a few" of the
opposition's proposals for that law were accepted. BEREKET
went on to applaud the new NEB arguing that for the first
time in history, NEB candidates were nominated, screened,
and selected in concert with the opposition. BEREKET
commended the EPRDF's participation in an inter-party
dialogue process with the opposition throughout late 2006
and into 2007, and defended the EPRDF's refusal to resume
such dialogue, after several opposition groups walked out,
until those parties formally apologize. When asked about
the issues of contention in the dialogue process, BEREKET
claimed that the opposition walked out because it wanted
permanent NEB offices at the local level and wanted
foreign and domestic election observers to have equal
rights. The EPRDF, he argued, preferred part-time local
NEB offices due to the cost of maintaining such a
presence and favored granting local election observers the
"right" to observe while requiring foreign observers to
seek permission to do so.


3. (SBU) Diverging notably from guidance that Post has
received from the NEB itself as well as from the provisions
in the electoral law, BEREKET informed PDAS Thomas-
Greenfield that under the current law, domestic election
observers have only to "show-up" to be able to observe
elections, whereas foreigners must apply to observe
elections. BEREKET argued that, in principle, the EPRDF
sees no difference between domestic and foreign observers,
but confided that due to the bad experience Ethiopia had
in 2005 with foreign election observers, the GoE retains
the right to permit/prevent foreigners from observing
elections. BEREKET took under advisement the PDAS's hope
that the GoE would not bar any particular category of
election observers and explained that the EPRDF
understands that its task is to "put its own house in
order democratically."


4. (SBU) BEREKET noted that nearly 14 million voters have
already registered since late-December, and that the GoE
expects final voter registration to be around 20 million

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people, or 90% of eligible voters. The only challenge, he
noted, was that the current harvest period may impede rural
voters from registering. The NEB is now working with the
Ministry of Information to establish arrangements for the
allocation of airtime among political parties as stipulated
in the electoral law. In preparation for the campaign
season, the EPRDF has produced a Code of Conduct manual to
train its members with an objective of creating a conducive
atmosphere for the elections.

...EXCEPT FOR OPPOSITION EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE THEM
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) When pressed by the PDAS on whether he or the
party would make a public declaration calling for the
cooperation of all EPRDF cadres -- as he had done to strong
positive effect in the run-up to the 2005 national
elections -- BEREKET stated that he would do so. BEREKET
quickly moved to highlight the "illegal" activities of some
opposition parties aimed at undermining the electoral
process. When pressed to provide examples, BEREKET noted
that some opposition groups are 1) telling the people not
to register to vote, 2) belittling the local government
institutions, and 3) encouraging voters not to turn out
for the elections as a means to express their rejection of
the system. When the PDAS inquired whether such actions
were illegal, BEREKET conceded that they are not but,
rather, that they are "not healthy politically."
Scampering for an example, BEREKET finally argued that
the opposition was destroying signposts directing the
public to voting stations where they could register.

JUDICIAL INTEGRITY AND CIVIL SOCIETY DETAINEES
-------------- -


6. (SBU) Shifting to a new subject, PDAS asked about the
continued detention of Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie,
the two civil society detainees convicted in late-December
who have yet to be released on parole in contrast to
standard Ethiopian judicial practice (see reftel). Despite
credible reports to Post that the EPRDF Central Committee
is driving the treatment of these political detainees,
BEREKET punted by arguing that a judicial review of their
eligibility for parole remains on-going, but that they
would definitely be released before the local elections,
"if a judicial decision is made." Despite the PDAS's
friendly recommendation that the two be released prior to
the elections, BEREKET simply argued that the GoE would
address this legal matter in a legal way.

VOA IN LINE WITH TERRORISTS, BUT WE'RE NOT JAMMING THE SIGNAL
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) PDAS Thomas-Greenfield pointedly asked BEREKET
(himself a former Information Minister and still a major
decision-maker on media and GoE information issues) if
there was any movement by the GoE to cease jamming VoA's
signal. (Note: The Federal Communications Commission has
positively confirmed that VoA's signal is being jammed from
within Ethiopia. Post notes that the incidence of jamming
increases in line with GoE protests about VoA content.
Further, the GoE publicly announced in early January that
it had begun using a similar method to jam the Eritrean
TV signal in the region.) BEREKET replied defensively that
the GoE is not jamming VoA, but argued that Ethiopia has
been on the receiving end of VoA's efforts to undermine
the GoE for years. BEREKET went on to argue that "VoA is
working with the Eritrean Government, opposition groups,
and terrorists" to undermine Ethiopia and the USG has
never responded to the GoE's appeals for redress.
Rejecting the notion that VoA is an independent entity,
BEREKET argued that VoA is not good for the strategic
bilateral relationship and that if the USG runs VoA, it
can make them balance their content. PDAS Thomas-
Greenfield reaffirmed VoA's independence noting that the
USG can only convey perceptions of problems to VoA, not
force a change in action. "If VoA is truly independent,"
BEREKET argued, "let the GoE deal with VoA directly about
our concerns without the State Department intervening."


ADDIS ABAB 00000215 003 OF 004



8. (SBU) Reaffirming his talking point, BEREKET argued that
the GoE does not think that jamming is the right solution
and stressed that the GoE does not have a problem with
freedom of expression. Undermining that talking point in
the very next breath, however, BEREKET emphasized that the
GoE "would not sit idle if VoA is fighting tooth and nail
to destroy us." BEREKET asked rhetorically why the GoE is
being criticized if it is VoA that is the "attack dog."
Defensively, BEREKET argued that the GoE has not attacked
any USG interests, but VoA doesn't know its limits. If
there is no resolution, he concluded, the GoE itself "must
do what is necessary in the sake of peace and security."
The Ambassador noted the appointment of a new VoA Horn of
Africa Service Chief and Post's recommendations that he
come to Ethiopia for consultations and dialogue with the
GoE very early in his tenure. BEREKET dismissed the
suggestion saying that the GoE has no chance of being
heard and that he was unsure whether such discussions
would bear fruit.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Ever the embodiment of the EPRDF's hard-core
members, BEREKET's confirmation of an ever-accommodating
ruling party on the domestic political scene and his
dogmatic responses to inquiries on VoA were consistent
with the GoE's stated positions not to accommodate the
VOA and pursue opportunities to undercut the opposition.
Despite his assurances that the GoE views domestic and
foreign election monitors as equal, in principle, but
foreign observers will need to apply for access. The
NEB Chairman has confirmed to Post that foreign
observers will not be permitted for the coming local
elections and the electoral law is even stricter noting
that foreign observers may only participate if the GoE
invites them "as deemed necessary." Similarly,
domestic observers may not just "show up," but must
petition the NEB to observe, must meet the as-yet-
unspecified procedural and competency requirements, and
receive a license from the NEB, of which none has yet
been issued. Foreigners can provide capacity training
of Ethiopian observers, but it must be under the
guidance and oversight of the NEB. While the ruling
and opposition parties did engage in dialogue about the
composition of the NEB and the content of the draft
electoral law, BEREKET neglected points, such as the
fact that the ruling party rejected the majority of
opposition-nominated NEB candidates and the ruling
party's refusal to negotiate on specific opposition
recommendations for the electoral law which was what
prompted their walk-out.


10. (C) While BEREKET's responses were not surprising,
they do offer a glimpse of the hard-line stance by the GoE
and EPRDF to undercut the opposition by legal-though-
questionable means, and giving the appearance of
advocating for a transparent and open democratic process.
P/DAS was effective in getting the message to the EPRDF
Central Committee that the international community is
focused on the elections and expects the GoE to make
efforts to ensure a credible process. Only by re-echoing
this message with interlocutors at every level of the GoE/
EPRDF at every opportunity as the elections approach will
we be able to spark actions by the EPRDF which more closely
reflect its rhetoric.


11. (SBU) Finally, the U.S. Embassy is working diligently
behind the scenes to energize the EU diplomats to support
U.S. led efforts to support the opposition's right to
participate in the local election. Currently, the largest
group, the former CUD members, have been effectively barred
from participating when their political party, the CUDP,
was handed over to an anti-CUD pro-government advocate. The
general public is not happy with the turn of events and the
fear of boycott by the opposition or low voter turnout
threatens to make these local elections meaningless.
Additionally, the U.S. has been working with the Ethiopian
elders to find a solution to the detention of two British
NGO workers, Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie. The U.S.

ADDIS ABAB 00000215 004 OF 004


will coordinate and continue to lead efforts on greater
openness and transparency in the political process, a very
tough road. End Comment.


12. (U) PDAS Thomas-Greenfield was unable to clear this
cable before departing Addis Ababa.
YAMAMOTO