ERITREAN OPPOSITION UNITES, AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 001564

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2018
TAGS: KDEM PREL PBTS ET ER
SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION UNITES, AGAIN

REF: A. 07 ADDIS ABABA 3016

B. 07 ADDIS ABABA 3101

C. ADDIS ABABA 84

D. ADDIS ABABA 216

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reason: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The May 5-11, 2008 Eritrean political
opposition congress in Addis Ababa reformed and expanded the
Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) to serve as the umbrella
organization for all Eritrean opposition groups. Embassy
officers spoke with more than a dozen opposition leaders and
civil society representatives before, during, and after the
conference to obtain a read-out of the week-long meeting.
The congress established that the objective of the EDA was to
"pave the way for a democratic transformation" in Eritrea,
and sought to hold at a future date a national reconciliation
conference with all interested Eritrean parties and
organizations, including the Eritrean government if the
government was willing. The EDA established a 13 member
executive council headed by Tewelde Ghebreselasse and a 13
member legislative council chaired by Abdalla Mahmoud. The
fundamental operating principle of the EDA is that all
important decisions must be made by unanimous consent. The
congress was nearly derailed on May 8 when the 13 parties
were unable to agree upon who would become the secretary
general, but they compromised on Tewelde. For the first
time, Eritrean civil society organizations formally
interacted with the EDA as observers, and all sides agreed
that the observers had a positive impact on the congress.
EDA leaders were sensitive to criticism that they were a
puppet of Ethiopia and would prefer to hold future
conferences elsewhere if given sufficient funding. Lastly,
three of the EDA organizations are descendants of the
Eritrean Islamic Jihad, and Post would appreciate guidance
from Washington, in consultation with Embassy Asmara, on how
to deal with this sensitive issue. END SUMMARY.

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MAY 2008 EDA CONGRESS "SUCCESSFUL"
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2. (U) The May 5-11, 2008 Eritrean political opposition
congress in Addis Ababa was considered to be a "great
success" by the participants and resulted in the
re-establishment of an expanded Eritrean Democratic Alliance
to serve as the umbrella organization for all Eritrean
opposition groups. The conference was attended by 43
representatives from 13 different Eritrean opposition groups
and 33 observers, including several exiled religious leaders
and representatives of Eritrean civil society organizations
from Africa, the Middle East, Europe, North America, and
Australia. (Note: The plethora of Eritrean opposition
groups have been attempting to unify against President Isaias
since 1999 when they established the Alliance of Eritrean
National Forces (AENF) in Khartoum with Sudanese assistance.
The AENF became the Eritrean National Alliance (ENA) in 2002
and then transformed into the EDA in 2004 or 2005. Until the
May 2008 conference, the various opposition coalitions
existed in name only and never functioned as a unified
element. The EDA in February 2007, while in the process of
trying to establish itself after several years of failure,
formally split into two factions, Bloc I and Bloc II, when
the parties were unable to agree on who to elect to the
leadership. End Note.)

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COMPOSITION OF THE EDA
--------------


3. (U) The EDA is now composed of 13 organizations; the
three groups from EDA Bloc I, the seven groups from EDA Bloc
II, and three previously independent groups who formally
joined the EDA during the conference. The Bloc I groups
include: the Eritrean Democratic Party (EDP),the Eritrean
Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC),and the
Eritrean National Salvation Front (ENSF). The Bloc II groups
include the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF),the Democratic
Movement for the Liberation of Eritrean Kunama (DMLEK),the

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Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO),the Eritrean
Federal Democratic Movement (EFDM),the Eritrean Islamic
Party for Justice and Development (EIPJD),the Eritrean
Popular Congress (EPC),and the Eritrean Popular Democratic
Front (EPDF). The three additional organizations include the
Eritrean Nahda Party (ENP),the Eritrean People's Movement
(EPM),and the Eritrean Islamic Congress (EIC).

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CONGRESS SEEKS "DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION" IN ERITREA
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4. (U) The concluding statement of the congress included
the following points:

-Announced the EDA's readiness to study means of holding a
dialogue with the Eritrean regime, provided Asmara shows its
readiness to find a peaceful means to resolve the political
crisis in Eritrea by paving the way for a democratic
transformation and establishing a constitutional rule that
conforms to the will of the people and their aspiration for
security and stability;

-Called on the Eritrean Defense Forces to side with the will
of the people;

-Called on all governments, and local and international
organizations, to boycott the Eritrean regime and redirect
their assistance to the Eritrean people through their
national political forces (i.e. the EDA);

-Called on all stake holders--civil societies, political
forces, intellectuals and leaders of the society--to a
national dialogue conference to address problems created by
the regime, particularly those dealing with challenges to
national unity.


5. (U) EDA leaders agreed that they are not seeking a
military overthrow of the Isaias regime and are publicly
calling for the Eritrean government to join the EDA, and any
other Eritrean organizations that are willing, in a national
dialogue conference intended to initiate a "democratic
transformation." EDA leaders said that they would be pleased
to hold the national conference inside Eritrea with the
participation of Isaias' People's Front for Democracy and
Justice (PFDJ),but readily admitted that PFDJ participation
was highly unlikely. With or without the Eritrean
government, the EDA intends to go forward with the national
conference and one EDA leader said they hope to hold it by
the end of 2008.

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EDA SEEKS POPULAR UPRISING AGAINST ISAIAS
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6. (C) Privately, the EDA leaders said they are seeking a
popular uprising against Isaias from within Eritrea. When
queried, however, the new EDA leaders could not articulate a
clear strategy for how to organize and execute such an
uprising. The EDA leaders said that they do not want to make
war against their countrymen who are forced to serve in the
army, rather they want to co-opt the military to support the
EDA. (Note: The reported May 30, 2008 attack on the
Eritrean Army near Massawa by the RSADO suggests that not all
of the parties subscribe to the no war principle.)

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EDA ORGANIZATION
--------------


7. (U) The EDA conference established a 13 member executive
council and a 13 member legislative council to oversee and
run the organization. Of the 13 groups, 12 are allotted one
seat each on both councils while the thirteenth group holds
the secretary general or chairman position. The EDA elected
Tewelde Ghebreselasse from the EPDF as seQtary general of
the executive council and nominal head of the EDA. According
to EDA members, the position of secretary general is meant to
be as a coordinator or facilitator rather than that of a true

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executive, and the officeholder is limited to a one year
term.


8. (U) The 12 members of the executive council organized
themselves into four departments, each with a different task.
The staffing of the departments took place during the week
of May 18 following the conference. The Department of
Finance and Administration is staffed by Hajji Abdelnur from
the EDP, Ahmed Mohammed Sefer from the EIPJD, and Ramadan
Mohammed Nur from the EIC.


9. (U) The Department of Information is tasked with
informing the public, the diaspora, and in particular,
Eritreans inside Eritrea concerning the EDA's activities and
program. This department is staffed by Kernelios Osman from
the DMLEK, Hassan Ali Asad from the ELF, and Ghebremichael
Askale from the ENSF.


10. (U) The Department of Foreign Relations is tasked with
liaising with the international community. This department
is staffed by Nur Mohammed Idris from the ENP, Adhanom
Ghebremariam from the EPM, and Beshir Isaak from the EFDM.


11. (U) The Department of Social and Public Affairs is
tasked with working issues related to the diaspora and
refugees. This department is staffed by Ibrahim Harun from
the RSADO, Mohammed Tahir Shengeb from the EPC, and Mohammed
Ali Ibrahim from the ELF-RC.


12. (U) Abdalla Mahmoud from the ENSF was elected by the
conference to serve as chairman of the legislative council.
The job of the legislative council is to set the program for
the executive council to implement. The chairman serves for
a one year term. One civil society member said that Abdalla,
who does not speak English, could be a good leader and
considered him "an intellectual and charismatic, yet
reserved."

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EDA OPERATES BY CONSENSUS
--------------


13. (U) The basic operating principle of the EDA is that
all important decisions must be made by consensus. EDA
leaders admitted privately that unanimity is required because
of the lack of trust between the parties and they admitted
that this rule makes the decision-making process lengthy and
difficult. One EDA leader said that the consensus principle
is a "fatal flaw" in the organization, but noted that the EDA
would not be possible without it.

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LEADERSHIP IMPASSE NEARLY DERAILED CONGRESS
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14. (U) According to EDA leaders and civil society members,
the conference nearly broke down on May 8 in a fight between
Bloc I and Bloc II over who would be elected secretary
general and a failure to achieve consensus, the same issues
that derailed the EDA in 2007. The impasse arose when
Hussein Khalifa, chairman of the ELF and Bloc II, announced
that ELF would not put forward any candidates for the top two
offices and announced that neither would they accept the
candidacy of Mengesteab Asmerom, an ELF-RC member and
chairman of Bloc I. An EDA leader explained that Hussein and
Mengesteab, as original ELF members, have a long and bitter
history and neither was willing to submit himself to the
other's leadership. The impasse continued into the evening
when the civil society observers told the EDA that they could
not leave the room until they had settled on a leader. The
civil society members then left the room and kept the doors
closed until the secretary general was selected. After
several hours inside the room, ELF-RC finally relented and
withdrew its candidate. The new candidates to emerge were:
Sheikh Khalil Mohammed Amir, chairman of EIPJD; Tewelde
Ghebreselasse, chairman of the EPDF; Adhanom Ghebremariam,
chairman of EPM; Abdalla Mahmoud, head of information for
ENSF; Beshir Isaac, chairman of the EFDM; and Nur Mohammed
Idris, chairman of ENP.

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15. (U) One by one the candidates withdrew their
nominations for the sake of EDA unity until only Tewelde
Ghebreselasse remained, making him the secretary general by
consensus. One EDA leader said that Tewelde, originally from
the ELF, was a strong supporter of Ethiopian-style ethnic
federalism, but noted that he was the least controversial
candidate for the top position. When queried, once civil
society member said Tewelde "has resolve and consistency."
He also said that Tewelde was not a strong leader, but
insisted that "the timing is not right for strong leaders."
Another EDA member said that the leaders picked by the
congress were not intended to be future leaders of Eritrea,
those leaders would come from the younger generation.

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ERITREAN CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION "HISTORIC"
-------------- --


16. (U) The participation of Eritrean civil society groups
was their first formal interaction with the political
opposition in the history of the opposition to Eritrean
President Isaias, according to conference attendees. Civil
society members said that until now they had viewed the
opposition with disdain as too fractured and self-serving.
The civil society members noted that there was now a growing
sentiment within most Eritrean groups that they need to work
together to bring change to Eritrea. EDA leaders said that
allowing the participation of civil society was at first a
contentious issue, but that after the conference there was
universal acknowledgment that their involvement was a
positive change. EDA leaders and civil society members
highlighted that it was the civil society observers who
forced the opposition leaders into a closed room on May 8
until they had solved their leadership impasse. Ad hoc
committees have been formed among the civil society groups to
support the EDA's four departments in an effort to
institutionalize the civil society-EDA relationship.

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EDA-ETHIOPIAN RELATIONSHIP A THORNY ISSUE
--------------


17. (C) The Ethiopian government provided the venue for the
conference and Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin spoke at the
opening and closing ceremonies, but no Ethiopian officials
were permitted to attend the daily working sessions. EDA
leaders, when queried, admitted that the perception of the
EDA as an Ethiopian puppet was a problem for the diaspora
because it undermined the EDA's credibility in their eyes.
The leaders made it clear, however, that they held the
conference in Ethiopia because they had no choice; they
lacked the financial resources to hold the meeting in Europe
or elsewhere. The leaders noted that they would be pleased
to hold the next conference outside Ethiopia if the United
States provided financial support. One civil society member
said that the location was of only secondary importance to
the fact that the conference heralded a new era of
cooperation between the opposition groups.


18. (C) Ethiopian support was channeled through the Sanaa
Forum, the organization created by Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen
to serve as their interlocutor with the Eritrean opposition.
The Sanaa Forum representative attended the conference's
opening and closing ceremonies and facilitated some of the
logistical requirements for the meeting.

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ERITREAN ISLAMIC JIHAD DESCENDANTS ARE EDA MEMBERS
-------------- --------------


19. (C) Three of the EDA member groups are factions from
Eritrean Islamic Jihad, according to EDA leaders and Post's
research. EIJ is believed to be responsible for the murder
of a British national in Eritrea in 2003 and other terrorist
acts in Eritrea. The three groups are: the Eritrean Islamic
Party for Justice and Development, also known as Alkhalas,
led by Sheikh Mohammed Khalil Amir; the Eritrean People's
Congress, also known as the Eritrean Popular Congress, led by

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Mohammed Tahir Shengeb; and the Eritrean Islamic Congress led
by Hassan Salman. The Eritrean People's Congress is
associated with another EIJ descendant, the Eritrean Islamic
Reform (Islah) Movement. Although Post has avoided direct
contact with these groups, EDA leaders claim the Islamic
groups have moderated their political platforms and have
abandoned their previously radical positions. The EDA
leadership has repeatedly recommended that Post engage with
the three groups to gain a better understanding of them and
has insisted that excluding them from contact is
counterproductive.

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COMMENT
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20. (C/NF) The 13 EDA parties have clearly demonstrated a
unity of purpose--the end of the Isaias government--but they
have yet to display a true unity of effort in nine years of
trying. The May 2008 EDA conference appears at this early
stage to be the closest they have come to unity of effort
thus far, but it remains to be seen if the 13 parties have
truly entered a new era of cooperation. With a couple of
exceptions, the EDA is led by the "old guard," veteran
fighters from Eritrea's war for independence who still think
more like 1970s insurgents than contemporary political
leaders. Mistrust runs high between the leaders many of whom
either split from each other or fought against each other
during the Eritrean People's Liberation Front's (EPLF) forced
expulsion of the ELF from Eritrea in the 1980s. Post assesses
that a true change of mindset by the senior leadership is
required if the organization is to develop fully into an
instrument of democratic transformation in Eritrea. The
participation of Eritrean civil society groups is a positive
sign because they bring younger, western educated leaders
into the fold and show promise of being able to inject more
open and democratic thinking to the EDA. Nevertheless, the
EDA most certainly would benefit from capacity building
assistance in basic democratic principles, as well as public
relations education and media training.


21. (C/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED. The inclusion of the three
Islamic groups will make it increasingly difficult for
Embassy officers to avoid contact with them and Post would
welcome guidance clarification from the intelligence
community on the extent of associations between EIJ and the
EIJ-derived parties as well as the degree of concern that
these derived parties retain extremist elements or
ideologies. Post would further welcome guidance from
Washington, in consultation with Embassy Asmara, on how to
deal with this sensitive issue. Embassy Addis Ababa stands
prepared to manage and implement U.S. assistance to Eritrean
opposition or civil society organizations operating in
Ethiopia, such as through Eritrea-allocated Special Self Help
funds, Democracy and Human Rights Funds, or public affairs
programming. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO