ETHIOPIA: PURGED AIR FORCE COMMANDER SAYS MILITARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001324

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PURGED AIR FORCE COMMANDER SAYS MILITARY
SUFFERS FROM ETHNIC DIVISION

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reason: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. Alemshet Degiffe, an Oromo
Major-General purged in 2006 while serving as commander of
the Ethiopian Air Force, told the Ambassador on May 12 that
the Ethiopian military suffers from ethnic division and
Tigrayan dominance. Alemshet said Ethiopian Prime Minister
Meles cannot afford to fight a war against Eritrea because
the military lacks the will to fight and a war would
exacerbate the growing cracks in the Ethiopian state. Lastly,
he noted based on his continuing contacts with some military
officials that the Ethiopian military was limiting itself to
small-scale tactical operations in Somalia only and was not
conducting any major offensive operations. END SUMMARY.

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PURGED AFTER 2005 ELECTIONS
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2. (C/NF) General Alemshet opened by explaining that he was
"purged" from the Ethiopian military in 2006, in the fall-out
of the 2005 national elections, while serving as commander of
the Air Force because he was Oromo and that the government,
particularly Chief of Defense (CHOD) General Samora, wanted
him out. Alemshet said that although he had supported
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles in the 2001 split in the
Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Central Committee, he
had also been a supporter of ousted CHOD Lieutenant General
Tsadkan and that Samora had never forgiven him for that.
(Note: The Ethiopian military conducted a major purge of
over 1,000 mostly Oromo officers from the military on
ethnically based suspicion of their loyalty to the ethnic
Tigrayan-led ruling party.)


3. (C/NF) After the 2005 elections, the government accused
him of conspiring with the political opposition and claimed
he was the leader of opposition activities within the
military. Alemshet insisted that he had no contact with the
opposition and to this day has no contact with them. He said
after he was purged he was kicked out of his government house
and that the Ethiopian security services followed him for six
months. He stated that he is unable to get a job because
potential employers fear retribution from the government if
they hire him. Alemshet said some day he hopes to be a
contributor again to his country, but for now, to stay safe
and out of prison, he must keep a low profile and stay away
from the opposition.


4. (C/NF) Alemshet added that in the lead up to the 2005
elections the military expected a change in government and
that the military would serve whatever government was
elected. He noted that after the election the military
understood that the Tigrayan government served itself and
only itself.

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ETHIOPIAN MILITARY SUFFERS FROM ETHNIC DIVISION
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5. (C/NF) Alemshet said, "there is no one army in
Ethiopia." He stated that the Ethiopian military was "built
the wrong way" when the current government came to power and
that it was fractured along ethnic lines. Alemshet, who
fought in the 1977-78 Ogaden War, and against the Eritrean
rebels, and later in the 1998-2000 Border War, said ethnicity
in the military was much less a factor in the Derg army than
it is now. He commented that the current government had 17
years of practice at "systematic segregation" and that they
were good at it.


6. (C/NF) Alemshet continued that the Amhara and Oromo in
the military know they serve the Tigrayan elite and not the
broader interests of the Ethiopian state. He estimated that
since the purge in late 2006, Tigrayans constituted 60-70
percent of the officer corps. He said the soldiers continue
in military because they need the jobs to get paid.
Nevertheless, he said they resent the way they are treated
and they are unhappy. Before the 2005 election the soldiers
voiced their complaints, but since the election they have

ADDIS ABAB 00001324 002 OF 002


learned to keep quiet or face discharge from the service or
imprisonment.


7. (C/NF) The general thought that the status quo would
continue in the military in the short term where soldiers
accept their position and the problems with it, but in the
longer term he did not know what could happen and he feared
for the integrity of the army. He noted that every Oromo and
Amhara soldier knows they have limited prospects for
advancement.

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"BORDER STATUS QUO WILL CONTINUE, WAR UNLIKELY"
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8. (C/NF) Alemshet, referring to the Ethiopian military's
deployment along the Eritrean border, said "the weapon is
there, but its morale and political condition will not allow
it to fight." He added that neither Eritrean President
Isaias nor Prime Minister Meles can afford to fight a war.
He said Isaias fears he would lose and Meles fears that the
level of dissatisfaction in the military and the country is
too high. Alemshet speculated that Meles fears a war could
widen current Ethiopian "economic and political cracks" to
where Meles could no longer hold the country together.

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MILITARY ONLY CONDUCTING TACTICAL OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA
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9. (C/NF) The Ethiopian military is limiting itself to
tactical operations only in Somalia, Alemshet said based on
continuing contacts with military officers, rather than
conducting large offensives. He stated that most of the
military's casualties were coming from ambushes and roadside
bombs. He said that the army could deploy another one or two
divisions from the Eritrean border to Somalia without
weakening the border, but that there was no need for the
redeployment because the army wasn't that active. Alemshet,
who was involved in the initial planning for the Somalia
operation, added that Meles never intended for a lengthy
deployment to Somalia. He did not know how long the military
might stay.

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COMMENT
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10. (C/NF) Alemshet's comments about the Ethiopian military
provide a rare insight into an institution that is by nature
secretive and difficult to access for outsiders. His
reporting of widespread dissatisfaction for the Tigrayan
dominated government within the military is consistent with
the views of the government held by the broader non-Tigrayan
population. The morale problems within the military are
certain to worsen in the next several years unless the
government changes course and becomes more inclusive,
something that at present they appear to have little interest
in doing. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO