GHANA PRE-ELECTION POLLING-- A WIDE MARGIN FOR

UNCLAS ACCRA 001382 SUSPECTED DUPLICATE 001392

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM KDEM GH
SUBJECT: GHANA PRE-ELECTION POLLING-- A WIDE MARGIN FOR
ERROR

REF: REFTEL A: ACCRA 01107


1. (U) Summary. There is limited polling data available
ahead of Ghana's December 7 presidential election. The polls
that are available show a tight race between the ruling New
Patriotic Party and the opposition National Democratic
Congress, with neither party strong enough to win a first
round election. End Summary.


2. (U) A March, 2008 Afro-Barometer survey found Ghanaians
overwhelmingly supportive of multi-party politics and
democracy. The wide-ranging survey found strong support for
the New Patriotic Party government, with respondents giving
it good marks for the economy, health care and education
services. The survey asked respondents their voting
preference, with 46% saying they supported the NPP and 23%
the NDC, and 27% providing no response. The level of support
for the NPP was down from 52% in a 2005 Afro-Barometer. The
Afro-Barometer survey was partially funded by USAID.


3. (SBU) In April the Government of Ghana completed, but
apparently did not disseminate, an "Opinion Poll on Issues of
Concern to the Ghanaian Voter in Election 2008." (Note: Post
obtained a copy from a GOG employee. End Note.) The study was
conducted through interviews of citizens by field workers
from the Research Department of the National Commission for
Civic Education (NCCE). The NCCE interviewed twenty-four
respondents in each of the country's 230 parliamentary
constituencies. Respondents across Ghana cited the quality
and accessibility of education as their top concern, followed
by health care and agricultural development. Respondents
were asked by researchers which party they thought would win
the election, with the opposition NDC getting a positive
response from 42.9% of respondents and the ruling NPP
receiving 42.6%. The Convention Peoples Party received
support from 6.3% of respondents.

4.(U) Ben Ephson, editor of the Accra-based "The Daily
Dispatch" has been conducting pre-election polling. His
August polling found the NDC with a slight lead over the NPP,
but without sufficient support for a first round victory.
(See Reftel). Ephson is planning a final round of polling in
late October. (Note: Ephson's polling was partially
supported through a US Embassy Democracy grant. End Note.)

5.(U). Both NDC and NPP officials tell EMBOFFs that they have
polling data, and their polls-- which they have not shared
with EMBOFFs reportedly show their respective parties heading
for resounding victories in the first round of voting.

6.(SBU) A former United States government official working in
a private capacity in West Africa has shared information from
a survey of Ghanaian voters done by a "European University."
The limited survey information available shows the NPP and
NDC in a statistical tie with 30.4% and 29.3% with over 30%
of the voters undecided.


7. (SBU) INR is in the process of contracting with Research
International to conduct a pre-election poll in Ghana. A
draft questionnaire has been reviewed by POLOFFs.


8. (SBU) Comment. Polling data is not widely available in
Ghana. There is a risk, as with the party generated data,
that "polling results" are meant to either influence voters
or justify a post-election claim of election malfeasance and
prove a stolen election. The quality of polling data is also
difficult to evaluate in a country where micro-level nuances
of ethnicity and language can influence voting behavior. The
GOG and Afro-Barometer polls were conducted months ago,
before the parties had selected vice-presidential candidates
or begun active campaigning. Polls asking Ghanaian voters
"who are you planning to vote for?" may also derive false
responses, as respondents may try to provide a response they
believe the pollster wants. End Comment.









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