NIGERIA: ANPP OFFICIAL ON PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002354

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANPP OFFICIAL ON PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL
SCENARIOS, INTERNAL PARTY POLITICS

REF: ABUJA 2339

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Poloff met with Sule Hamma (strictly
protect),All Nigerian Peoples' Party (ANPP) Presidential
Campaign Council Director General, on November 28 to discuss
the pending Supreme Court decision on ANPP candidate General
Mohammadu Buhari's election tribunal appeal and reports of
dissention within the ANPP. Hamma believed the "best option"
for the Supreme Court, in terms of protecting the interest of
northern elites, would be to overturn the elections and
designate Buhari the winner. Hamma told Poloff he worries
that no matter what the Supreme Court decision, it will
likely be met with violence and he maintained that a military
coup remains a serious threat. Hamma contended that recent
reports of internal squabbles within the ANPP over some
members' participation in the Government of National Unity
(GNU) are now behind the party, with the majority of members
clear they want nothing to do with the GNU. He lamented the
lack of internal party democracy, including within the ANPP,
though he said no senior leaders in any of the parties are
interested in changing the status quo. Hamma is part of the
mid-level party leadership and we believe his opinions, while
possibly not informed by direct, frequent meetings with
Buhari and other senior party leaders, are indicative of what
the working level within the party is thinking. The best
guess right now is the Supreme Court could make a decision on
the election by the end of year. END SUMMARY.

Supreme Court - Scenarios for Overturning the Election
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2. (C) Poloff met with ANPP Presidential Campaign Council
Director General Sule Hamma on November 28 to discuss General
Buhari's appeal to the Supreme Court, ANPP preparations for a
possible rerun of the presidential elections, and internal
party politics. With regard to the Supreme Court decision on
the 2007 Presidential election, Hamma maintained the Supreme
Court has several options if it overturns the election.
Firstly, the Court could simply overturn the election and
call for a rerun. Secondly, it could overturn and stipulate
conditions under which a rerun election should be held. And
thirdly, the Court could overturn and decide that enough
evidence was presented that it could declare Buhari the
winner.


3. (C) Hamma contended to Poloff that the "worst" of these
three scenarios would be a decision without announcing a
winner or putting stipulations on the conduct of rerun
elections. He noted Senate President David Mark's "political
ambitions" and worried that Mark would be "in the right" to
ask for a six month extension to prepare for the elections,
noting that neither the ANPP nor the international community
could object to the request as there has been no electoral
reform to address the underlying problems from the 2007 poll.
He contended Mark would then use the extended time not to
prepare for elections, but rather to shore up his own claim
to power (or at least to be the PDP candidate in place of
Yar'Adua); Hamma claimed Mark would push for constitutional
changes if necessary to stay in power. This scenario, he
noted, was clearly not in the interest of the northern elite
-- who want power to stay in the north. He raised the
spectre of a military coup if Mark were seen as manuevering
to stay in office extralegally.


4. (C) At a minimum, Hamma contended the Court should place
specific conditions on rerun elections in its decision. He
recognized the separation of powers, he insisted, but the
Court should stipulate the dissolution of INEC -- the
incompetence and/or corruption of which was blamed for the
chaos of the 2007 election -- and its reconstitution with
representatives from all political parties, its reform to
make it truly independent of the executive, and a rethinking
of how results are announced. The "smart" scenario he
contended, at least from the perspective of the northern
elite's interests, would be for the Court to pronounce Buhari
the winner of the 2007 elections. Hamma maintained there was
enough evidence that Buhari actually won the polls in enough

ABUJA 00002354 002 OF 002


states to make this a possibility. (Comment: We doubt that
this is actually the view of most members of the northern
elite, and question whether Buhari could be reasonably judged
the winner, as this would require him to have won both an
overall majority and at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds
of the states. End comment.)


5. (C) Whether the Supreme Court overturns the elections or
not, Hamma told Poloff he believes violence and chaos will
follow the announcement. He contended that a military coup
remains a strong possibility if the Court upholds the
elections. Regarding timing of the Supreme Court
announcement, Hamma felt Friday afternoon prior to the long
weekend of the December 8-9 Eid-el-Adha holidays would be a
"good time for an announcement" as government agencies and
press would be on reduced staff and the public focused on the
holidays. That said, he also worried that the long Eid
holiday would be a perfect time for a coup (for much the same
reasons) and believed the Court may specifically choose to
delay the announcement past then. (Comment: we have seen
no/no evidence of an imminent coup. End comment.)


6. (C) Hamma said the ANPP is not currently making
contingency plans for another election. He maintained that
the "political machinery" was still in place, with no major
changes to the ANPP party structure since the April 2007
elections. With the same candidate and the existing
structure, Hamma said they could quickly mobilize for fresh
polls. (Note: General Buhari told PolCouns the same in their
November 23 meeting. Reftel.)

Internal ANPP Dynamics - PDP Failed to Undermine ANPP
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7. (C) Hamma contended that recent reports of dissention
within the ANPP and disagreement over the acceptance by some
ANPP members of positions within the Government of National
Unity (GNU) were not a significant concern. According to
Hamma, the PDP created the GNU to try to fragment and break
up the ANPP and Action Congress (AC),the main "opposition"
political parties, by attacting key members into alliances
with the ruling party. Hamma pointed to the report of the
ANPP National Reconciliation Committee, which concluded that
a majority of ANPP members oppose the GNU and do not want the
party to be seen as an ally of the PDP. Those within the
party that have joined the GNU, Hamma contended, have been
sent a strong message that they should either resign from the
GNU or they will be removed from the ANPP. The PDP, he told
Poloff, "has failed to destroy us."


8. (C) Despite his clear allegiance to the ANPP, Hamma told
Poloff he is disappointed that there is no internal party
democracy (in ANPP or any of the other parties) and that the
senior leadership is not interested in changing the status
quo. He claimed he is in touch with others in the AC and PDP
who also recognize the need for internal democracy, but none
can get the senior leadership onboard. Hamma blamed the
cronyism brought about as a result of the lack of internal
party democracy as a key factor in the rampant corruption and
poor governance in Nigeria.

Comment
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9. (C) Comment. We find Hamma to be a credible source for
insights into the working levels of the ANPP. We do not
believe he has regular, direct access to General Buhari, but
we know he is close to Buhari's Presidential Campaign
Secretary, Buba Galadima. His comments about the likelihood
of a military coup seem not in keeping with what we hear from
military contacts and what we know of the large scale
retirements from the senior military ranks carried out by
both Obasanjo and Yar'Adua. We find it encouraging that
there are mid-level leaders within the ANPP and other
political parties who recognize both the need for internal
democracy and the harm that the current cronyism brings. End
Comment.

This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Sanders