Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ABUJA2339
2008-12-01 13:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: BUHARI SUPPORTS CONSTITUTION IN EVENT OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR NI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002339 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI SUPPORTS CONSTITUTION IN EVENT OF
POWER TRANSFER

Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002339

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI SUPPORTS CONSTITUTION IN EVENT OF
POWER TRANSFER

Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PolCouns and PolOff (notetaker) traveled to
Kaduna to meet with former Head of State General Muhammudu
Buhari on November 26. Buhari conveyed his optimism to
PolCouns about his legal case before the Supreme Court, which
seeks to annul the 2007 presidential election. He reiterated
the failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC),under the leadership of its current Chair, Maurice
Iwu, which he hoped would be reflected in a favorable Supreme
Court ruling, and was confident that he could galvanize
widespread popular support during the three-months allowed
under the constitution for a rerun of the election. When
asked for his perspective on possible successors if Yar'Adua
was unable to continue as President due to ill health, Buhari
affirmed his faith in the rule of law and the constitution,
which meant that, in such a situation, VP Jonathan should be
accepted as President. Buhari also reiterated his "deep
appreciation" to the USG for its support for free and fair
elections, but asserted that Nigeria's future will be
determined only by Nigerians and the level of sacrifice they
are willing and able to make for the sake of democracy. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to Buhari, his legal team presented a strong
case to the Supreme Court, which drew upon the
inconsistencies and contradictions of INEC's announced
election results and highlighted violations of the
constitution and the electoral act. He pointed to evidence
that in some states elections did not even occur. Buhari
also concluded that conditions made it impossible for voter
turnout to reach more than 30 percent (Note: INEC claimed
nearly 60 percent). Buhari told PolCouns that there was no
indication when the Supreme Court would make its ruling,
suggesting that "it is now in the hands of the judges to
determine the integrity of the constitution."


3. (C) In the event that the 2007 elections are annulled,
Buhari told PolCouns that he "expects the Supreme Court to
suggest the removal of INEC Commissioner Iwu in its ruling."
Buhari also upheld that his political structure "stands
ready" to galvanize voter support, a process made easier by
the fact that the candidates chosen for the 2007 elections
will remain the same. He acknowledged, however, that if
President Yar'Adua were not able to stand for health reasons,
the PDP would be entitled to replace him. Buhari added that
"the real challenge will be for INEC, not the candidates or
their parties, as INEC is responsible for successfully
holding new elections within the three months allowed by the
constitution."


4. (C) On the possibility that Yar'Adua might be unable to
complete his term due to ill health, Buhari revealed that he
had been telling other northern leaders that "no
extra-constitutional measures should be taken and that the
rule of law should be followed" (i.e., that VP Goodluck
Jonathan should take over as President). He said any other
course would violate the constitution, which "would go
against everything" he is standing for with his current
appeal before the Supreme Court. Buhari then concluded that
making progress on the issues of poverty, health, and
development should trump the informal North-South rotation of
the presidency. "Ultimately, it is a question of who can
better solve Nigeria's most pressing problems," he said.


5. (C) COMMENT: Buhari made clear the only options he
supports favor the rule of law. He may be calculating,
however, that this tack presents the best argument to
northern elites for annuling the elections, as Vice President
Jonathan would be slated to take the reigns from the ailing
President if the elections are upheld. Buhari has invested
(once again) considerable time, money, and energy into his
Supreme Court case, and it is clear he expects a
high-yielding return. End comment.


6. (U) This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Sanders