Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ABUJA2148
2008-10-30 14:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NORTHERN NIGERIA EXPERIENCES A RELATIVE REPRIEVE

Tags:  KIRF KISL PGOV NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002148 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: KIRF KISL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN NIGERIA EXPERIENCES A RELATIVE REPRIEVE
IN EXTREMIST ACTIVITY, RELIGOUS VIOLENCE

REF: ABUJA 321

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002148

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: KIRF KISL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN NIGERIA EXPERIENCES A RELATIVE REPRIEVE
IN EXTREMIST ACTIVITY, RELIGOUS VIOLENCE

REF: ABUJA 321

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) Summary: Over the last several months there has been
relative calm in Northern Nigeria; there have been few
religious conflicts and no indications of extremist activity.
Several factors have contributed to this reduction in
activity, including: a settling of reactions to Sharia law
implementation, satisfaction that the President is again a
Northerner, a reduction in the central government's
interference in religion, distractions by political events,
and the timing of Ramadan. However, Post believes three
major factors remain present that could lead to increased
religious extremism and violence: poverty, lack of electoral
reform, and corruption. Locally engaged staff (LES) report
that Nigeria's economic situation and the attitude and
responsibilities of the country's political leadership are
frequent topics of sermons - meaning that the economic and
political challenges Nigeria faces are regularly brought to
the attention of the average Muslim Northern Nigerian. In
addition, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is
frequently addressed by imams following statements or actions
by the USG. We remain vigilant of the situation in Kano
where Sharia authorities, known as Hisbah, have increasingly
targeted members of the entertainment industry (both over
content and failure to submit material for censorship),and
in Sokoto where continued tension between the Sunni and Shia
communities could again devolve into violence. Although we
would not go as far as to say extremism is declining in
Northern Nigeria, there has not been any recent significant
evidence to suggest an increase. End Summary.

Relative Calm
--------------

2. (C) Over the last several months there has been relative
calm in Northern Nigeria; there have been very few religious
conflicts and no indications of extremist activity. There
have been no assassinations, no major national or
international events to spark conflict, and less media
attention on religious issues, all of which likely
contributed to the reduction in incidents of violence. As

Dr. Hameed Bobboyi, Special Assistant to the Sultan of Sokoto
and former Director of Arewa House, told Poloff on October
22, there has been "no major event to change the status quo."
While there have been some cases of inter-religious conflict
between Muslims and Christians in Kwara State, the events
appear isolated and proper legal action is being taken.
Additionally, in Kano State, Sharia police have arrested and
prosecuted entertainment industry professionals for allegedly
violating state censorship laws (such as failure to register
with the State Censorship Board),but these cases are also
isolated and have not led to any violence. In Sokoto,
violence between Sunni and Shia groups has declined in the
past several months; and recent reports indicate that calm
has returned to the region. (Comment: Although we would not
go so far as to say extremism is declining in northern
Nigeria, there has not been any significant evidence to
suggest an increase. Even in the events in Kwara and Kano
States cited above, the conflicts do not seem to be part of a
larger movement toward extremist activities. Sokoto,
however, continues to be an area of concern which Post will
monitor. End Comment.)

Factors Contributing to the Reprieve
--------------

3. (C) Several factors have contributed to a reprieve in
extremist activity and religious conflict, including: a
settling of reactions to Sharia, representation of
Northerners in the Presidency, a reduction in the central
government's involvement in religion, distractions by
political events, and the timing of Ramadan.

-- Over time, reactions to Sharia have died down.
Non-Muslims who were previously opposed to Sharia have ceased
to protest, largely because it has proved less onerous for
non-Muslims in practice than previously feared, and the

ABUJA 00002148 002 OF 004


implementation of Sharia has diminished tempers of Muslim
extremists who no longer have anything to demand.

-- As a Northern Muslim, President Yar'Adua has provided
Northern Nigerians with some sense of being better
represented in government than they were under former
President Obasanjo, an evangelical Christian from the
Southwest. In addition, Yar'Adua is seen as a Muslim who is
part of the broad Muslim community, not part of any
particular group or sect.

-- The central government has paid little attention to
religious groups, at least publicly. PolAssistant noted
that, unlike in the past several years, recently there have
not been the sorts of harsh crackdowns on religious
minorities, such as the suppression of Shia rallies, by the
State Security Service (SSS) or other security forces. While
there are unproven rumors the SSS was involved in the July
2007 assassination of the outspoken Sunni Imam Umaru
Dan-Maishiya (see reftel),there have been no similar
incidents more recently. (Comment: Whether the SSS was
actually involved in the assassination is less relevant as a
cause of religious tensions than the perception of the
community at large. End Comment.)

-- The political climate has likely distracted Nigerians from
religious issues. Given President Yar'Adua's health, and the
focus on electoral reform, Northerners are likely too
concerned about the North's stake in the Presidency to become
involved in religious conflicts. Radio news such as VOA
Hausa and BBC Hausa Service are extremely popular in Northern
Nigeria. As a result, nearly everyone, including the farmer
and the trader, follows the nation's political situation and
it is a common topic of discussion.

-- During Ramadan it is unlikely for conflict to occur
because Northern Muslims are focused on fasting, charity, and
prayer. Dr. Bobboyi, the Special Assistant to the Sultan,
told Poloff that no one will incite conflict during the month
long observance. End Note.)

Factors That Could Lead to Violence
--------------

4. (C) Despite the relative calm, Post believes three major
factors remain present that could lead to increased religious
extremism and violence in the future: poverty, lack of
electoral reform, and corruption.

-- Poverty in Nigeria has been increasing, especially in the
North. Although Nigeria avoided a food crisis this year,
lack of rain and increased desertification in the North mean
more competition for already scarce resources. As a result
of the extreme poverty large numbers of unemployed youth have
poured into urban centers throughout the North. Such
unemployed youth can serve as a breeding ground for extremist
ideology if sparked by the right kind of leadership.
Likewise, the almajiri represent a relatively easy target for
recruitment by extremist groups; almajiri are young children
whose impoverished parents send them away to be taught by an
Islamic teacher or "Malam", who in turn sends the children to
engage in street begging. Growing up outside a stable family
environment, this group of children and youths is
particularly susceptible to recruitment by extremist factions
or criminal groups.

-- Religious conflicts in Nigeria are rarely initiated due to
differing belief systems; rather they are generally sparked
by economic events. It is our sense that the lack of ability
of the political establishment to address economic and social
welfare concerns results in frustration and desperation,
which contribute to both ethnic and religious violence.

-- Finally, corruption of leaders in the government and
religious organizations could contribute to Northerners'
discontent. One of the motives behind the implementation of
Sharia law was the moral decay that Northerners observed
among the political elite. The public hoped that Sharia
would reinstate order and justice. However, Sharia has not

ABUJA 00002148 003 OF 004


fulfilled those hopes, and the elite continue to function
outside of the legal system. As a result, we believe that
Northern Muslims will likely seek justice in more fundamental
forms of Islam.

Sermons and Imams
--------------

5. (C) Post's locally engaged staff report that Nigeria's
economic situation and the attitude and responsibilities of
the country's political leadership are frequent topics of
sermons in their Mosques (in Abuja, Kaduna, and Zaria) -
meaning that Nigeria's economic and political challenges are
regularly brought to the attention of the average Muslim
northern Nigerian. In addition, sermons often comment on USG
statements or actions related to Middle East, particularly in
regard to U.S. policies on Iraq and Iran. In September,
Post's Cultural Affairs Assistant heard an imam in Kaduna
preach that the United States is using the nuclear issue in
Iran as an excuse to attack the country. LES report that
there is a general feeling in the North that Islamic culture
is under attack by the West. On the other hand, Post's
Cultural Affairs Assistant noted that he has observed growing
awareness among some Northern Nigerians of the "other side"
of U.S. foreign policy, including a realization that the
United States is improving Nigeria through development
projects. Still, PolAssistant cautioned that this awareness
is limited in scope and that the USG needs to expand on its
promotion of assistance programs to the Nigerian public.
PolAssistant also reported that many imams are calling on
their congregations to be honest, mindful of their duties,
good to their neighbors, and to respect authority.


6. (C) LES opined that younger imams often address
contemporary issues and tend to be more outspoken (likely as
a result of globalization and increased access to media),
whereas older imams are more cautious and conservative with
their statements. The younger generation is often critical
of the USG and its policies, and also criticizes Nigerian and
Arab leaders for aligning with the United States.

Areas of Concern
--------------

7. (C) Although isolated to Kano, over the past few months
the Hisbah have increasingly targeted members of the
entertainment industry. Entertainment professionals
(including movie directors, actors, comedians, and writers)
have been arrested for alleged violations of the Kano State
censorship law, including operating without registration with
the State Censorship Board, producing movies and publishing
books without censorship, and including nudity and "immoral
acts" in films. Additionally, LES report that there were
several book burnings in Kano which aim to destroy "Kano
Market Literature" - cheaply bound romance novels that
address courtship, polygamous marriage, and the meaning of
love and often critique the corrupt elite and failures of the
older generation. It is too early to call these incidents a
trend. But it appears that Islamic sects are engaged in a
battle to determine who is most Islamic. However, this
varies by region. Like Kano, Plateau State is reportedly a
very tense location; while in Kaduna the population growth
and movement of people (both Christian and Muslim) within the
city indicate a growing confidence among its residents that
conflicts have subsided.


8. (C) The number of Shia in Nigeria is growing, as people
who are frustrated by their economic positions are recruited
or convert from other Islamic sects. In Sokoto, tensions
between Sunni and Shia resulted in several conflicts last
year, including the attacks on scholars of both sects and the
murder of Sunni Imam Dan-Maishiya in July 2007. However,
since then the situation has been improving and several
individuals have been convicted or are currently standing
trial for these crimes. Sheik Abubakar Jibril, Chief Imam of
Faru Faru Juma'a Friday Mosque in Sokoto, told PolAssistant
on October 28 that things have now calmed down in Sokoto,
especially in the last few weeks. (Comment: The reason for
the cease of conflict between the Sunni and Shia in Sokoto is
unknown. Post will continue to monitor the area closely and

ABUJA 00002148 004 OF 004


watch for any signs of increased tension. End Comment.)


9. (U) This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Sanders