FORMER NIGERIAN PRES GOWON - NO NEED FOR CONCERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002147

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI
SUBJECT: FORMER NIGERIAN PRES GOWON - NO NEED FOR CONCERN
ON PRESIDENT'S HEALTH, SUPREME COURT WILL UPHOLD ELECTION

REF: ABUJA 2123

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador met with former Nigerian
President Yakubu Gowon (1966-1975) on October 28 to discuss
the Supreme Court case on the 2007 presidential elections and
President Yar'Adua's health (Poloff was notetaker). Gowon
assured the Ambassador there is "no reason for concern." He
believed the Supreme Court will "act in the best interest of
Nigeria" and uphold Yar'Adua's election. The anticipated
Cabinet reshuffle was delayed not because of Yar'Adua's
health, he maintained, but due to competing political
interests and Yar'Adua's insistence on "getting it right."
Gowon said he was not aware of any health issues other than
Yar'Adua's kidney problems. He had not recently seen or met
with the President, though he was hopeful he would meet with
him in the next several days. Gowon does not appear to have
regular access to the President (although he recently spoke
with him for the Sala celebrations) or his inner circle of
advisors, so he is likely not privy to current information on
Yar'Adua's health or the thinking inside the villa on the
Supreme Court verdict. Ambassador asked Gowon if he heard
soemthing that made him change his above stated opinion,
would he let her know; Gowon agreed. Gowon does not belong
to any of the political parties, thus he said he presents his
personal views. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ambassador met with former Nigerian President Yakubu
Gowon (Nigeria's second military, and longest serving, Head
of State, 1966-1975) on October 28 to discuss the pending
Supreme Court case regarding the 2007 presidential election
and President Yar'Adua's health (Poloff was notetaker). On
the Supreme Court decision, Gowon said he believed that the
justices will "act in the best interest of Nigeria," and that
he is confident they will uphold the election results. He
assured the Ambassador that there is "no reason for concern"
and was adamant that Yar'Adua would have won even if the
elections had been free and fair -- though not by such a
large margin. He pointed out that the Peoples' Democratic
Party (PDP) was the only cohesive, organized party with a
truly national reach and alluded to Obasanjo's reference in
winning the 2007 elections as a "do or die affair" for the
PDP, noting that the PDP did "all it could" (read corrupt
practices) to win. Gowon indicated that Vice President
Goodluck Jonathan had never wanted to be Vice President and
was disappointed to have to leave the position of Bayelsa
Governor, hinting that the Governorship was much more
lucrative. Gowon indicated that Obasanjo's desire all along,
however, was to have a south-south president and that he
calculated on Yar'Adua's weak health as a vehicle to achieve
this.


3. (C) Gowon said he tried to convince former President and
2007 presidential candidate Mohammadu Buhari to accept the
outcome of the 2007 elections. In the absence of such
acceptance, Gowon said he counseled Buhari to limit his
criticism to the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) and former President Obasanjo, seeing them as
ultimately responsible for the elections. Gowon told the
Ambassador that Buhari refused to attend the one Council of
State meeting Yar'Adua called since taking office because of
his objections to the elections and Obasanjo's participation
in the meeting. (NOTE: The Council of State is an official
body including the President, Vice President, all living
former presidents, former Supreme Court chief justices,
standing governors, the Attorney General, the Senate
President, and Speaker of the House; the constitution
requires that it be consulted on certain kinds of decisions.)
Gowon concluded that once the Supreme Court had announced
its verdict, Buhari would resume attendance and use the
Council as a venue to advise and counsel the Yar'Adua
administration.


4. (C) The Ambassador told Gowon there is considerable
concern within the USG about the pace of the Yar'Adua
government and the appearance that the government is adrift
as a result of Yar'Adua's health and uncertainty over the

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electoral case. Gowon assured the Ambassador that things are
getting better -- that Yar'Adua will be able to take charge
and move forward after the Supreme Court ruling. He
maintained that the anticipated Cabinet reshuffle was delayed
not because of Yar'Adua's health, but due to competing
interests and Yar'Adua's insistence on getting it right. He
said Yar'Adua is very focused and consumed right now with
budget issues, in particular the benchmark oil price.


5. (C) The Ambassador told Gowon that rumors had surfaced
that Yar'Adua might suffer from something more serious than
kidney problems, including the possibility of lung cancer.
She relayed to Gowon that she spoke to First Lady Turai
Yar'Adua on October 27 and expressed concern over the
President's health, offering assistance and access to
information on medical facilities in the U.S. as might be
needed. Gowon said he was not aware of any medical problem
aside from the kidney disease that had become public
knowledge during the campaign. He said Yar'Adua had
undergone a successful kidney transplant (he believed from a
family member donor). Gowon told the Ambassador he had tried
unsuccessfully to arrange a meeting with Yar'Adua during the
early October Sala (end of Ramadan) holiday. He said
Yar'Adua called him a few days later and that his speech
sounded "weak." Gowon hoped to see Yar'Adua in the next few
days. Gowon praised the Ambassador for her handling of the
health question with the First Lady, noting that she could
gain access through the First Lady even when it is not
possible to gain access to the President.


6. (C) COMMENT. Gowon, who is 75, is an aging former
military president who, despite remaining active in his
speaking and religious activities, does not appear to have
regular access either to the President or his inner circle of
advisors. That he may be unaware of the President's current
health condition is not unlikely -- he relayed to us that
former dictator Abacha was buried before he was informed of
his death, though this was largely due to his travels.
Still, we cannot rule out the possibility that health rumors
may be circulating and perpetuating themselves amongst a
small group of Abuja elite. That a Supreme Court decision to
uphold Yar'Adua's election is clearly "in the best interest
of Nigeria" is not a new concept -- Governor Saraki (reftel)
expressed a similar sentiment in his October 27 discussions
with the Ambassador. END COMMENT.


7. (U) This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Sanders