Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ABUJA2125
2008-10-29 07:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: BUHARI'S CAMP ON THE PRESIDENTIAL

Tags:  PGOV PINR NI 
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INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
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RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002125 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI'S CAMP ON THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION CASE

REF: ABUJA 2091

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002125

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI'S CAMP ON THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION CASE

REF: ABUJA 2091

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 24, Buba Galadima, ANPP National
Campaign Secretary for General Mohammadu Buhari, accompanied
by Bassey Ekpo Bassey, Obong of Calabar, told PolCouns and
PolOffs there were different factions at work attempting to
influence the outcome of the ongoing presidential election
case currently before the Supreme Court. Galadima and Bassey
urged the USG to engage with the Supreme Court justices to
encourage them to let justice prevail. Galadima came with a
strong warning that if "justice does not prevail" (read: the
election is not overturned),that no one will trust the
courts in the future and individuals will take matters into
their own hands. Both interlocutors believed that President
Yar'Adua has underestimated the power former President
Obasanjo still holds and that the Yar'Adua administration was
too weak to make any significant changes. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In an October 24 meeting with PolCouns and PolOffs,
Buba Galadima, ANPP National Campaign Secretary for General
Mohammadu Buhari, said he was pleased with Buhari's lawyers'
work and that they had a strong case that only "extraneous or
political issues" could puncture. Galadima was unsure when
the final judgment would be announced. He noted that several
of Buhari's lawyers were former students of Justice Niki
Tobi, hinting that this would bode well for Buhari. (COMMENT:
Justice Niki Tobi was particularly critical of the cases put
forth by lawyers for President Yar'Adua and the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) during presentation of
final arguments on October 23. See Ref A. END COMMENT.)


3. (C) Galadima agreed with PolCouns that there were several
factions (as many as ten, Galadima maintained) attempting to
influence the Supreme Court's decision, noting that each had
their own motives. Galadima suggested that some were
pressuring the Supreme Court not only to annul the election
of Yar'Adua, but to declare a winner, as the electoral act
empowers them to do (presumably Buhari, at least in
Galadima's mind). On the other hand, he said there were
powerful Northern rulers, such as the Sultan of Sokoto and

Emir of Kano, who were pressuring the judges to maintain the
"status quo" and uphold the election.


4. (C) If the election were annulled and a rerun ordered,
Galadima suggested that current Secretary of the Government
of the Federation (SGF) Yayale Ahmed would be the likely PDP
candidate, intimating that Yar'Adua moved Ahmed into the SGF
position in order to begin projecting him as a likely
candidate. Galadima claimed that allies of former President
Obasanjo, including Andy Uba, Senate President David Mark and
former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC) Nuhu Ribadu, had expressed to Buhari's camp
their support for an annulment. Galadima asserted that if
the election were annulled and Senate President David Mark
sworn in as interim President, Obasanjo would once again be
in complete control of the administration. Bassey added that
Yar'Adua's administration was weak and underestimated the
power Obasanjo still held both inside the GON and within the
nation as a whole. According to both interlocutors, Obasanjo
still controlled a majority of members of the National
Assembly, and would play a significant role once the judgment
was announced.


5. (C) Galadima requested the international community,
including the USG, to engage with the Supreme Court justices
and encourage them to "let justice prevail," adding that if
justice is done, Buhari will emerge victorious. He suggested
that if the court does not find in favor of justice (read:
annul the election),people would not trust the judiciary in
the future and would be forced to take matters into their own
hands. "We are capable and can do it," he warned. PolCouns
noted that the USG has repeatedly made clear the importance
we attach to the rule of law, but added that we would also
not want to do anything which give the appearance of
interfering in the Supreme Court's deliberations.


6. (C) COMMENT: Galadima is a staunch long-term supporter of

ABUJA 00002125 002 OF 002


Buhari and clearly believes Buhari was the legitimate winner
of the 2007 elections. We note his warning that individuals
might take matters into their own hands. Buhari spent two
years in court following the 2003 election and had to be
prodded into pursuing the tribunal process again this time.
If the hope of a fair hearing in the tribunals completely
dries up, future Nigerian elections could prove to be even
more "do or die" than we have seen in the recent past. End
Comment.


7. (C) Bio note: Galadima has been a contact of the Mission
since 1994. He supported Buhari during the 2003 election and
tribunal process and remains a close confidante and advisor.
We believe Galadima speaks for Buhari in expressing
frustration with the electoral and judicial processes.


8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Sanders