Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ABUJA2123
2008-10-28 19:09:00
SECRET
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH GOVERNOR SARAKI -

Tags:  PGOV NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #2123/01 3021909
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 281909Z OCT 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4292
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1454
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0449
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 0148
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002123 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH GOVERNOR SARAKI -
DISCUSSES NIGERIA'S MEDIUM TERM FUTURE, SAYS YAR'ADUA DOES
NOT HAVE CANCER

REF: A. ABUJA 00211

B. ABUJA 2065

C. ABUJA 2095

ABUJA 00002123 001.3 OF 004


Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (B & D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002123

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH GOVERNOR SARAKI -
DISCUSSES NIGERIA'S MEDIUM TERM FUTURE, SAYS YAR'ADUA DOES
NOT HAVE CANCER

REF: A. ABUJA 00211

B. ABUJA 2065

C. ABUJA 2095

ABUJA 00002123 001.3 OF 004


Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (B & D)


1. (S) Summary: Ambassador held an October 27 one-on-one
meeting with influential Governor's Forum Chairman, PDP inner
circle member, and close Presidential confidant Kwara
Governor Bukola Saraki to get his viewpoint on the pending
Supreme Court (SC) decision on the 2007 presidential election
and the "what if " scenarios associated with the SC's
decision. Ambassador included in the discussion USG concerns
about President Yar'Adua's health as well as our sense that
Nigeria seems adrift and lacking in direction. After a quick
blank look and a missed beat in responding to Ambassador's
question on whether Yar'Adua has lung cancer, Saraki said he
did not think so, was only aware of his serious kidney
problems, and had no other specifics. He did admit he had
heard the rumors as well. On what scenario he thought was the
best for the SC to make for the country, Saraki said,
responding as a PDP politician, that an SC annulment would
produce the most chaos as there is no PDP leader around which
the party would coalesce. Expecting an SC decision in late
November, Saraki was most worried about the role of Senate
President David Mark. He described Mark as severely
ambitious, particularly given his military background,
closeness to Obasanjo, and his strongman personality. He
doubted he would call elections in 90 days, using lack of
capacity of the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) as the reason not do so. He noted Mark as "acting
President" can determine when the country or INEC are ready
for new elections when he sees fit. (Note: Our understanding
of the Constitution contradicts Saraki, but we will continue
to check. End Note). Hence, a former (but ambitious)
military man with this much power to determine the future of
Nigeria's democracy is something Saraki said he did not want
see. He mentioned that the leading Niger Delta Minister
candidate is septuagenarian Gabriel Onsoyede (sic),a former
British Petroleum and Celtel CEO, who is from Delta State.
The Ambassador also used the occasion to re-raise USG

concerns about any role by ex-Delta Governor Ibori in a
Yar'Adua administration. The atmosphere in Abuja (not so
much in the States) is tenuous as clearly political players,
including Saraki, former Vice President and AC presidential
candidate Atiku and others, are jockeying for their next
strategic move. Rumors persist that efforts by all camps,
including Yar'Adua's, are making overtures to the Supreme
Court judges. We are still hearing, however, good things
about the integrity of SC Chief Justice Kutigi. Portuguese
Ambassador told Ambassador evening of October 27 that her
contacts are saying Yar'Adua needs another kidney transplant.
End Summary.

--------------

Yar'Adua's Health

--------------


2. (S) Ambassador held a one-on-one lunch at the residence
for leading Northern Nigerian political figure and Governor
of Kwara State Bukola Saraki on Oct 27. Saraki, a medical
doctor, is also chairman of the influential Northern
Governor's Forum, ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)
insider, and a close confident of President Yar'Adua. He
came to the residence directly after having had a two hour
meeting with Yar'Adua. Ambassador began the lunch by asking
after the President given the persistent rumors about his
health. She then asked Saraki whether Yar'Adua had lung
cancer, underscoring that this was the current rumor
circulating not only in Nigeria, but also in the
international press and within diplomatic circles. She also
noted how concerned the USG was about the health of the
President and there was also a sense that the country was
adrift because of this as well as the pending Supreme Court
(SC) case. Ambassador added that she had just returned from

ABUJA 00002123 002.4 OF 004


Washington and that there was a high level of worry as to
where Nigeria is headed in the short and medium term as not
much progress has been made on key issues such as governance,
rule of law, etc., in the last 18 months. Surprisingly,
Saraki said he could understand this as there were a lot of
loose ends in the country right now. On the President's
having lung cancer, the Kwara Governor had a momentary blank
look, missed a beat in responding, but recovering quickly
added,that all he knew for sure was that the President
suffered from severe kidney disease. He asked the Ambassador
if she wanted his layman's or medical view of the issue. The
Ambassador said she could figure out the layman's view for
herself, but his medical and comments about his interactions
with the President would be much appreciated.


3. (S) After a brief chuckle on that comment, Saraki turned
serious and stated that he could not see any signs of cancer
in his many dealings with the President, particularly nothing
like lung cancer. He noted that he is dealing now with his
father's cancer and given this plus his medical background,
he did not see any signs that there is this type of
carcinoma, particularly any at stage 3 as is being rumored.
The Kwara Governor emphasized that he had just finished a two
hour meeting with Yar'Adua and saw no signs of fatigue or
lack of mental acuity. These can come either from
cancer-related drugs or the disease itself as the disease is
terminal and at stage 3 one is looking at no more than a 5-6
month survival window, Saraki explained. He highlighted again
that he "just did not see these signs," and he regularly
meets with Yar'Adua. (Note: We need to take Saraki's
comments in stride as the Governor is politically ambitious,
is close to Yar'Adua, and its serves his ambitions to have
Yar'Adua remain in office, in whatever medical or physical
shape he may be in. End Note).

--------------

Supreme Court Decision Scenarios and the PDP

--------------


4. (C). Ambassador then turned the conversation to the
pending Supreme Court (SC) decision and how Saraki thought it
might rule -- either for or against the President. She also
asked the Kwara Governor if he would also address what was
going on inside the PDP -- since from the outside it looks
like things are a mess and falling apart. Saraki began by
addressing the internal PDP question first. He noted that
the PDP has always been a "loose mosaic " but the one thing
that kept it all together and has ensured its leadership
over the last 8-9 years was the role of former president
Obasanjo. OBJ always was able to whip the party into shape
either by "convincing " (read bribe),strong arming, or by
whatever tactic possible to get people to do what he wanted
and when he wanted. There is no one able to do that now
within the PDP, Saraki stated. Ambassador said the party
looked fractious, but Saraki disagreed. In his view, there
are groupings -- the Obasanjo and Babangida groups to mention
a few -- without much power to do things on their own and
push the PDP in any particular direction. "The Northern
Governor's block is the largest and most influential," Saraki
said, "because we control the voting delegates to the
convention, which was why neither Obasanjo or Babangida were
unable to get their candidates voted in as PDP Chairman last
spring."


5. (S) Moving on to the earlier part of the Ambassador's
question on the SC scenarios, Saraki said he wanted to
respond to this as a PDP politician. He began by saying he
would rather have to worry about "managing President
Yar'Adua's health issues whatever they maybe,than having to
address a scenario where the SC has annulled the 2007
presidential elections. An annulment would be a disaster and
a setback for Nigeria; upholding the 2007 elections would be
the best for the country as well as the PDP." The other
parties such as the Action Congress (AC) and All Nigerian
Peoples' Party (ANPP) are too weak to be successful," Saraki

ABUJA 00002123 003.5 OF 004


stressed. He described his worries in the following manner.
On the Yar'Adua's health issue, Saraki said that the PDP
could manage these issues as they would have time to put in
place their strategy to secure a successful election for the
North in 2011 and coalesce around one candidate, which would
not be the case now in an annulment scenario. In addition,
this would also give the PDP time to choose a strong
candidate to work with current Vice President Jonathan if he
succeeded to the Presidency. Right now, in 2008-2009, with
an annulment scenario there are too many politically
relevant people who either want power back or power for the
first time such as Babaingida, Obasanjo, Atiku, and Senate
President David Mark. In summing up this point, Saraki
commented that if SC ruled for Yar'Adua, then these political
players will be put off until 2011, and in his view only
Atiku would be young and influential enough to still be
relevant at that time. Hence, 2011 would be too late for
Obasanjo and Babangida to make another bid for the
presidency, or control the PDP.


6. (S) The Kwara Governor then said that his biggest worry in
any annulment scenario is the role that current Senate
President David Mark would play, because the Constitution
gives him extraordinary powers with little checks and
balances on that power. Saraki claims that there is no
specific rule that requires the Senate President to call for
election in 90 days if he feels that neither the country or
INEC are not ready. According to Saraki, the Senate
President has the discretion to decide if the country or
INEC are ready within 90 days to hold another election. The
Northern Governor's Forum Chairman added that David Mark was
ambitious, a former military leader, smart, and was close to
Obasanjo -- all reasons that he would not be a neutral player
in an SC annulment scenario. Moreover, Mark wants to be
President of Nigeria, Saraki concluded. (Note: We will
continue to check the interpretations of the Constitution on
this issue. End Note).


7. (C) Ambassador closed out the session by putting another
marker down with the Governor on James Ibori. She said she
hoped Ibori was off the list for any Niger Delta Ministry
position as she highlighted this would certainly shut down a
good part of the U.S.-Nigeria relationship, noting that we
wanted to see action coming from the EFCC for the upcoming
British case against Ibori in January 2009. Saraki pushed
back and said he did not see how the EFCC played in this as
in his view the U.S. and UK needed to be focusing on the
Attorney General (AG) as he was the one who had all the cards
and documents on this case. He added that he did not know
under whose authority AG Aondoakaa was operating, citing the
AG's recent letter to the Metropolitan police that it
illegally obtained documents on ex-Delta Governor Ibori for
its case. EFCC Chair Waziri is out of this and not part of
the issue. The UK needs to fight it out with the AG and not
the EFCC, and execute whatever bilateral reaction they wish
if they do not get results from the AG, Saraki concluded.
Regardless, the Ambassador added, she would not be seeing
Waziri despite her pending request for dinner with her, and
she would find a diplomatic way of letting her know this,
underscoring that the USG is waiting for results on Ibori's
January 2009 UK case before there can be any consideration
for a conversation with her.


8. (C) Comment: All of Saraki's comments need to be taken in
the context that he too is an ambitious, driven, and a
politically-motivated individual who also wants to be
President of Nigeria. In many ways, the Governor is very
western in his outlook and demeanor having studied in the
United States where he spends his vacations and has numerous
friends. Whether he is in the loop on all the details of the
President's health is another question. We would guess that
he is -- maybe not fully -- but more than he wants to reveal
at this time. He did not quite recover quickly enough in
response to the question on whether Yar'Adua has lung cancer,
as it caught him off guard, but his long medical explanation
was not convincing as it is hard to believe that some parts
of the rumor of a "new medical condition and crisis" at the

ABUJA 00002123 004.5 OF 004


Presidency is not true -- even if it is not lung cancer,
Yar'Adua is not/not in good health.


9. (C) The Portuguese Ambassador told the Ambassador night
of October 27 that her contact in the Villa who is on the
Villa medical staff said that Yar'Adua needs another kidney
transplant, and that the new condition is related to that
and not lung cancer. At any rate, we will see what the next
couple of months bring with the Supreme Court decision and
Yar'Adua's health being the major cornerstones on how Nigeria
will fare over the next six months. Players like former Vice
President Atiku is one we will have to watch more and more if
reports of his return to the PDP are true. If Atiku does
return to the PDP, where he still enjoys a lot of support,
then he might be the strongman needed to whip the PDP back
into shaped whether there is an annulment or not. However, he
would still have to deal with his nemesis Obasanjo, which
could have the opposite affect of splitting the party even
more.


10. On Senate President David Mark, he is a wildcard which is
why in our ref C cable we placed him in a category all by
himself in our Top Five people per sector to watch. We will
look into the possible Constitutional loop holes that might
be there on the 90-day clock to call for re-elections if the
2007 presidential election is annulled. However, this is the
first serious concern about a possible former mlitary leader
with political amibitions giving one of our major contacts,
for good or bad information, pause. Mark is brusque, not
well liked in many quarters, and arrogant. Reports of his
involvement in corruption efforts in his 2007 election as
well as his 2008 appeal are still being discussed. End
comment.



Sanders