NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TRIBUNAL MAY CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TRIBUNAL MAY CLOSE
FEB. 4

REF: 07 ABUJA 2481

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) Summary: Closing arguments in the consolidated
Atiku/Buhari challenge to Nigeria's April 2007 presidential
election will be heard February 4, at which time the justices
of the Presidential Election Tribunal will set a date to
deliver their verdict. Lawyers for both the petitioners and
respondents told PolOffs they expect a verdict by mid-March,
after which the losing side is expected to appeal to the
Supreme Court. Mike Ahamba, lead counsel for General Buhari,
remains confident in the facts of his case and the integrity
of the judiciary and maintains that he will win his case at
either the Tribunal or on appeal. The atmosphere, including
an unsually large police presence and attendance of
cabinet-level Nigerian officials, at the court January 28 may
be a sign that the GON is growing nervous about the election
challenge. End Summary.


2. (C) PolOffs attended the January 28 hearing at the
Presidential Election Tribunal in the consolidated Action
Congress/Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari (of the All
Nigeria People's Party, ANPP) challenge to President
Yar'Adua's (of the People's Democratic Party, PDP) election.
Closing arguments were originally slated to begin at this
session, but were delayed by a January 25 Supreme Court
ruling, which permitted Atiku's legal team to compel
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman
Maurice Iwu to answer a list of 26 questions about the
procurement and delivery of ballot papers for the April 2007
elections. INEC is expected to provide its written answers
to the court no later than January 29, after which all
parties will file their responses. The next hearing in the
matter is set for February 4, at which time closing arguments
will be made and the Tribunal will announce a date for
delivering judgment. (Note: If Atiku's team feels that
INEC's answers are unsatisfactory, they have the right to ask
the court to order INEC to provide additional information,
which could delay the closing arguments again. However, the
judges noted that "the eyes of Nigeria and the international
community are on this court" and urged the lawyers not to
foot drag in this matter. Emeka Ngige, one of Atiku's
lawyers, told PolOffs that Atiku's case was already strong,
and he did not anticipate going back to compel INEC to
provide additional information. End Note.)


3. (C) The atmosphere in and around the Presidential Election
Tribunal on January 28 was different than at previous
tribunal hearings attended by PolOffs. Full-color posters of
President Yar'Adua and Vice President Jonathan with the PDP
logo and the phrase "No Going Back" had been hung on every
tree and traffic light in the neighborhood of the courthouse.
Several hundred PDP supporters (wearing new t-shirts and
caps that matched the posters) demonstrated on two corners
near the court. The demonstrators were peaceful and appeared
to have been brought in on two large buses. There was a
heavy security presence; riot police in full gear lined the
road to the court and filled its parking lot. General Buhari
attended the January 28 hearing, as he normally does, but
atypically five government ministers (Minister of Culture,
Minister of Education, Minister of Information, Minister of
the Interior, and the Minister of State for Energy) along
with Inspector General of Police Mike Okiro were in the
courtroom.


4. (C) After the hearing, PolOffs met privately with Mike
Ahamba, lead counsel for Buhari. Ahamba expects the tribunal
will conclude on February 4 and anticipates the judges will
deliver their verdict by mid-March. Ahamba remains confident
that the facts he has submitted about pre- and post-dated
result sheets, contradictory result sheets, and other
abnormalities will be impossible for the tribunal to ignore.
He also noted the continuing trend of state tribunals
overturning elections works in his favor, at least
psychologically if not as legal precedent. Ahamba cited the
example of Benue state, where two PDP senators' elections
have been overturned and the third and last (of Senate
President David Mark, PDP) may be annulled soon. Ahamba
reasons that if all three Senate races, which were conducted

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the same day as the presidential vote, are thrown out, how
can the courts have any confidence in Benue's presidential
result? Ahamba admitted he has some fear that Justice James
Ogebe, chief judge of the tribunal panel, may decide in the
GON's favor "to secure himself a Supreme Court seat," but
remains confident that even if the Tribunal bows to political
pressure, the Supreme Court will find in his favor on appeal
and order a new election. In the event of a new presidential
poll, Ahamba believes that the Supreme Court would issue
clear guidance regarding the process, timeline, and
arrangements for interim leadership of the nation in order to
maintain stability.


5. (C) Comment: As the Presidential Tribunal hearings draw
to a close, it is still likely the court will rule in favor
of the current government, as was done in 2003. Politics,
public opinion, and the desire for stability will play a role
in the judges' decision. However, if the government is
completely confident it will win the election challenge, we
question why they would organize the unusual "political
theater" (swarm of riot police, pro-government demonstrators,
ministers in the courtroom) at the January 28 hearing.
Perhaps the growing number of annulled Senate and
gubernatorial elections is having some impact on public
opinion, which the government hoped to counteract by flexing
its muscle at the tribunal. We expect a tribunal ruling by
March, and if (when) the tribunal decision is challenged, a
Supreme Court ruling on the appeal soon after (April or May).
If a new election is ordered, it must occur within 90 days.
Odds are low that such an election will take place, but if it
occurs, the current timeline would put it in July or August

2008. End Comment.
SANDERS