PDP: WINDS OF CHANGE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000178

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: PDP: WINDS OF CHANGE?

REF: A. 07 ABUJA 2464


B. 07 ABUJA 2446

C. 07 ABUJA 2377 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) Post reported (reftels) that forces within the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) were hoping to gradually
reduce former President Obasanjo's control over the party and
his influence on the government, but that steps to reduce his
influence had to be taken slowly and gradually. The PDP
convention was reportedly postponed from December 2007 due to
struggles between pro- and anti-Obasanjo forces within the
party (ref A). The National Working Committee (NWC) of the
PDP is scheduled to meet January 28, at which time a new date
for the party convention will be set. Ahead of this
important meeting, there have been a string of negative
articles ranging from salacious allegations about Obasanjo's
family to reasoned criticisms of policy during his
presidency. It appears that the winds of change may be
blowing within the PDP.


2. (SBU) What began as a trickle of isolated negative
articles has now achieved critical mass in the week prior to
the PDP NWC meeting. A few of the many examples from this
week's press:

--"Sex Scandal: OBJ not fit as BOT Chairman- Lar" (front
page, Daily Champion, 1/23/08): Founding member of the PDP
and former governor Chief Solomon Lar urged the former
president to resign from the PDP Board of Trustees due to
allegations that Obasanjo commited adultery with the wife of
his son Gbenga in exchange for awarding her with lucrative
government contracts.

--"The Obasanjo Family Mess: Divorce Papers Expose a Randy
Ex-President" (The News (weekly magazine),cover story,
1/28/08 edition): Lengthy article spilling dirt from son
Gbenga's ugly divorce proceedings. The mud-slinging implies
financial improprieties with government contracts by both
Gbenga and his estranged wife, with the added soap opera
allegation that the wife exchanged sexual favors for
contracts.

--"Yar'Adua faults Obasanjo on Establishment of Gas Plants"
(Thisday, p.6, 1/24/08): Group Managing Director of the NNPC
Abubakar Yar'Adua (no relation to the President) told the
House of Reps that the former President did not follow due
process in establishing gas plants. (Note: this comes after
President Yar'Adua complained to the press on January 13 that
his predecessor had spent $10 billion on the power sector
2000-2007 and had nothing to show for it. End Note.)

--"Obasanjo's 15 Secret Accounts" (cover of Newswatch, weekly
magazine, 1/28/08 edition): Discusses the National
Assembly's discovery during recent budget deliberations of at
least 15 "special accounts" containing billions of naira.
The article notes that these funds were put aside during the
Obasanjo regime for unspecified purpose but the monies are
now being returned to the 2008 budget process.

--"U.S. court goes after Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello" (front
page, Daily Champion 1/25/08): Article reveals that the
former president's daughter is allegedly wanted in North
Carolina for violating a court order giving custody over her
child to her ex-husband. (Note: This comes on the heels of
revelations earlier this month that Iyabo used a false
identity in a shady business deal with an Austrian firm to
gain GON contracts during her father's administration. End
Note.)

--"Protestors Pelt Obasanjo with Tomatoes in Ekiti" (front
page, Leadership 1/25/08): Article says the ex-president
gave a speech in Ekiti on Jan 24, but that his arrival was
marred by protestors throwing tomatoes and holding signs that
read "EFCC Must Probe OBJ Farm" and "OBJ clear yourself of
sex scandal." In his speech, the former president claimed
that he had "done his best for Nigeria."

--"G-21 Moves Against Obsanjo" (Leadership, p.2, 1/25/08): A
group of prominent PDP members, reportedly led by former
Senate President Nnamani and including Honorable Farouk Lawan

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(of the Integrity Group) and the father of House Speaker
Bankole, have petitioned the PDP NWC to amend the party's
constitution on several points, including a change to the
clause which makes the former President BOT Chair.


3. (C) COMMENT: Former President Obasanjo seems to be on the
ropes ahead of next week's PDP NWC meeting. It looks like
reform-minded factions within the PDP, including the
Integrity Group (ref C),are gaining power within the party,
and are seeking to reduce Obasanjo's influence. It is less
clear how changes within the ruling party will affect
President Yar'Adua, though on the face of it a greater
distance between him and his former patron would seem to be a
good thing, and might enable his government to prosecute
corruption from the previous administration more vigorously.
Post will continue to track these intrigues within the ruling
party closely. End Comment.
SANDERS