NIGERIA: ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE RECEIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001715

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE RECEIVES
EXTENSION

REF: ABUJA 1315

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Geoffrey Martineau for reason
s 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) Summary: On August 13, The Guardian newspaper reported
that President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua announced a four month
extension of the Electoral Reform Committee's (ERC) mandate.
The deadline extension is not surprising given the
committee's delay of several months before beginning its work
and the unexpectedly large volume of suggestions gathered
during the nationwide public hearings held May 12 to June 25.
Respected civil society representatives on the ERC have not
endorsed allegations that the delay is simply a ploy to put
off reform. It may be, however, that members of the
committee are reluctant to submit their report until after
the Supreme Court delivers its ruling on the 2007
Presidential Election. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On August 13, The Guardian reported that President
Yar'Adua had granted the ERC a four month extension of its
mandate. Given its slow start (convened in August 2007, the
Committee lacked proper office space and had only met a
handful of times by the end of the year),the deadline
extension was not surprising. In addition, on July 9
Muhammadu Uwais, ERC Chairman and former Chief Justice of
Nigeria, told Poloff that over 800 memoranda (of public
suggestions for reform) were submitted to the committee for
review. Uwais showed Poloff approximately 200 of the
memoranda, which towered over the Chairman's desk in eight
very large bound books. Uwais said that, after the
compilation of all the memoranda, the committee members would
each read every submission, which necessitated their request
for the extension. He added that President Yar'Adua was
already aware of their need for additional time, since he
told Nigerian Diaspora members during a recent trip to France
that he expected to receive electoral reform recommendations
in December 2008.


3. (C) In a conversation on August 27, John Odah, General
Secretary for the Nigeria Labour Congress and ERC member,
told Poloff that the committee is meeting daily and that they
are working on draft reports. He estimated that by the first
week in October they will have a final document, which will
then be sent out for printing. He seemed confident that they
would submit their recommendations in December. Odah would
not yet discuss any emerging proposals, but said he may be
able to do so within two weeks. When asked if the
forthcoming recommendations would require action by the
National Assembly, he acknowledged they would, adding that
Yar'Adua might need to apply the passion he has shown for
reform to push the measures through. Odah added that the
committee sees its job as the initial step toward "doing the
right thing" and that its members will mobilize to put
pressure on the National Assembly if necessary.


4. (C) Despite the extended tenure, Emma Ezeazu, General
Secretary of the Alliance for Credible Elections, did not
seem concerned. He told Poloff on August 27 that Nigerians
are not concerned with the extension; since the ERC started
late, it was expected that they would need additional time to
compile their report. Ezeazu remarked that there would be a
problem if no report is made in December, or if the content
of the report is unsatisfactory.


5. (C) Comment: Some (perhaps more skeptical) observers
believe the delay in the ERC's report reflects a desire by
some within the government to forestall reform until time to
enact needed changes begins to run short (as happened after
the 2003 elections). While there are certainly some within
the PDP establishment who are not interested in changing a
system from which they benefit, we note that respected and
sometimes outspoken civil society representatives on the ERC
like Odah have not mentioned this possibility. It is
certainly not unusual here for things to take longer to get
going than initially planned, nor is it uncommon for
Nigerians to take a somewhat winding road in their
deliberations on almost any subject. In any case, we would
be surprised if the ERC were to submitted its recommendations

ABUJA 00001715 002 OF 002


before the release of the Supreme Court ruling on the 2007
presidential election, expected by late September or early
October 2008. End Comment.
PIASCIK