NIGERIA: BUHARI AIDE ON TRIBUNAL, ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001348

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI AIDE ON TRIBUNAL, ELECTORAL

REFORM, YAR'ADUA

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) Summary. Abubakar Buba Galadima (strictly protect),
Organizing Secretary for All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP)
Presidential candidate Buhari, told PolCouns, PolOff, and
PolFSN on July 9 that he believed the Nigerian Supreme Court
will uphold the 2007 election of President Yar'Adua when it
rules later this year. He said Buhari and his supporters are
considering breaking with the ANPP and forming a new
political party, though they will wait until after the
Supreme Court ruling before acting. Galadima was critical of
the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) established by Yar'Adua
last year, arguing that it is really a tool of the GON and
ruling PDP party, not a real force for reform. He claimed
that two recommendations submitted by the PDP will emerge
from the ERC: extending the presidential term (including
Yar'Adua's current one) to seven years, which we judge
unlikely, and the formation of an electoral offenses
commission. End Summary.


2. (C) Buba Galadima said he believes that the Supreme
Court's judgment will likely endorse President Yar'Adua's
election. He implied that General Buhari and his key
supporters have already decided to form a new political party
which would be distinct in its ideological orientation from
the existing 51 political parties. He said changing parties
is necessary as Buhari is not on good terms with the ANPP
party leadership, including its several state governors, but
Buhari believes changing parties before the court ruling
would portray him as an unprincipled politician, so he will
remain with the ANPP for now. (Comment. We question
Galadima's description of the new party as "distinct in its
ideological orientation," given that Nigerian political
parties largely lack meaningful ideologies, and are built
around important personalities. Galadima's explanation that
Buhari is "not on good terms" with party leaders, some of
whom are angling for an alliance with the ruling party in
return for offices, a much more plausible motivation. End
Comment.)


3. (C) Galadima said he believes the ERC's recommendations
will have no merit because it is chaired by former Chief
Justice Uwais, the key jurist involved in endorsing the
fraudulent 2003 elections, and a man for whom he and Buhari
have little respect. He maintained that Uwais' endorsement
of the 2003 elections "encouraged Obasanjo to run a more
fraudulent election in 2007." In addition, he surmised that
the ERC is working closely with the government; he noted that
the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),which was the last
organization to make a presentation at the public hearings,
recommended a presidential tenure elongation to seven years
with the maximum of two terms and the formation of an
electoral offenses commission. Galadima declared, "If the
PDP proposal was submitted at the beginning of the hearings,
Nigerians would have reacted negatively," particularly to the
term-elongation proposal. Instead, no one had the
opportunity to disagree with the PDP's recommendations.
Galadima said he believes both of these proposals will emerge
in the final ERC report. He contended an electoral offenses
commission would be used to suppress political opposition,
rather than offenses by the PDP.


4. (C) Galadima, who has known Yar'Adua since their
university days, said he has been disappointed with the
conduct of the new administration, describing the President
as "docile and ineffective." Despite Yar'Adua's medical
problems, he insisted that the President will serve two
seven-year terms, 14 years total. He claimed that Yar'Adua
and his wife have agreed, "It is better for the President to
die in office and receive state burial than die in his
hometown, Katsina." Galadima contended that only former
President Obasanjo has the resources and political
connections to prevent a proposal for tenure extension.


5. (C) Comment. The idea of tenure elongation was floated by
Senator Saminu Turaki, a member of the Senate Constitution
Review Committee, in May 2008; however, it met strong
resistance both in the media and from other Senators. While

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it is unclear whether Turaki's suggestion was merely his own
or meant to test the waters and judge reaction to the idea,
we do not believe tenure elongation stands a chance. Indeed,
it is our sense that it would receive the same kind of
strongly negative reaction that greeted Obasanjo's effort to
amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term.
We also doubt that Yar'Adua is interested in being President
for 14 (or perhaps even seven) years. Nonetheless, the mere
mention of tenure elongation has clearly made an impression
on Galadima. End Comment.
SANDERS