(C/NF) NIGERIA: NORTHERN SUPPORT FOR YAR'ADUA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001018

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA, INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2033
TAGS: PGOV PINR KCOR NI
SUBJECT: (C/NF) NIGERIA: NORTHERN SUPPORT FOR YAR'ADUA
WANING, THOUGH TEMPERED BY FEAR

REF: A. 07 ABUJA 2616

B. 07 ABUJA 47

C. ABUJA 799

D. 07 ABUJA 1671

E. ABUJA 643

Classified By: A/Pol/C Heather Merritt, reasons 1.4 (b, c & d).


1. (S//NF) SUMMARY: Maitama Sule (strictly protect),former
Nigerian ambassador to the United Nations (1979-1983) and
confidant of President Umaru Yar'Adua, averred that the
northern political elite is increasingly apprehensive about
Yar'Adua's health and his capacity to continue to govern, and
is fearful the North may lose the presidency to the South if
Yar'Adua dies, although we note that there are other factors
at play on this issue besides Yar'Adua's health, particularly
if the Supreme Court calls for a new election. While Sule
believes that President's performance during his first year
in office has suffered due to his ailing health, he assessed
Yar'Adua has succeeded in disentangling and distancing
himself from former President Obasanjo. Sule informed that
Yar'Adua wants to further reduce Obasanjo's influence both
within the Villa and the National Assembly. Consequently,
Sule remarked, Yar'Adua intends to replace current Chief of
Staff, and Obasanjo-loyalist, Abdullahi Mohammed. (Nigerian
press reported May 30 that Mohammed has resigned, and will
officially vacate office June 2.) Sule confided that some
influential northerners are currently pressuring former
National Security Adviser, Aliyu Muhammad Gusau, to consider
taking over as Chief of Staff. Also, Sule alleged that
Obasanjo is working to bribe the Supreme Court to overturn
President Yar'Adua's April 2007 election. While claiming
that First Lady Turai Yar'Adua is heavily involved in corrupt
activities, Sule insisted that President Yar'Adua is
committed to remaining personally untainted by corruption.
To that end, Sule asserted, President Yar'Adua recently
turned down $60 million, which had been offered to him as the
President's personal "share" of Nigeria's monthly oil
earnings. Although Yar'Adua, according to Sule, allegedly
ordered his "share" to be deposited into the nation's
treasury, Sule also said First Lady Turai pocketed $60
million while Senate President David Mark and House Speaker
Dimeji Bankole each pocketed $30 million. We still contend
however, that it is impossible for Yar'Adua not to know about
his wife's illicit activity even if he is not personally
accepting bribes or engaging in such activity. END SUMMARY.


2. (S//NF) Maitama Sule (strictly protect),former Nigerian
ambassador to the United Nations (1979-1983) and well-known
confidant of President Umaru Yar'Adua spoke with PolOff at
his Kano residence May 15 (see Ref A for Sule biographical
information). Sule lamented the northern political elite
remains increasingly apprehensive about Yar'Adua's health.
Whereas earlier health-related predictions of Yar'Adua's
prognosis had been relatively positive, current estimates,
Sule observed, paint a somber picture of the President's
strength, and consequently, his capacity to continue to
govern. With the prospect of Yar'Adua's death while still in
office figuring prominently in the minds of many in the
North, Sule remarked that the North fears it may
inadvertently forfeit its turn to hold the presidency. Such
an eventuality, Sule bemoaned, would impair the North's
ability to retain influence and help chart a more positive
course for northerners, especially after eight years of what
northerners deem Obasanjo's injurious influence on the North.


3. (S//NF) Sule believes that Yar'Adua has succeeded in
distancing himself from Obasanjo, and appears more committed
to attenuating Obasanjo's influence within the Villa. To
that end, Sule said, Yar'Adua plans to reshuffle the cabinet
to replace Obasanjo-loyalists within the Villa. In
particular, Sule noted that the northern political elite is
working to convince former National Security Adviser Aliyu
Muhammad Gusau to rebuff entreaties by Ibrahim Babangida to
aid him in a return to power, and instead, accede to the
position of Yar'Adua's Chief of Staff, which is currently
held by Obasanjo-loyalist Abdullahi Mohammed. (Nigerian
press reported May 30 that Mohammed resigned with effect from
June 2. Gbolade Osinowo, Senior Special Assistant to
President Yar'Adua will act as Chief of Staff until a

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replacement is announced.) Sule said that Gusau has been
reluctant to accept anything less than the presidency, given
that he too wanted to be the People's Democratic Party (PDP)
candidate in the April 2007 presidential elections (Ref B).
Sule admitted that Obasanjo's influence within the PDP has
not been as circumscribed as Yar'Adua had hoped. However, by
limiting Chief of Staff Mohammed's (and potentially, other
Obasanjo-loyalists') access to the President, Sule argued,
Obasanjo would be left in the dark since he would neither be
able to influence Yar'Adua nor be privy to the ins and outs
of the Villa. Sule reasoned, as well, that a powerful Chief
of Staff loyal to Yar'Adua would ensure not only that
Obasanjo's power within the Villa would be diminished, but
also that the influence of the ambitious (though certainly
not tied to Obasanjo) Secretary to the Government Babagana
Kingibe would be reduced.


4. (S//NF) Sule also intimated that Obasanjo, in concert with
Senate President David Mark, is working to bribe the Supreme
Court to overturn President Yar'Adua's April 2007 election
(see Ref C). (In the event that the Supreme Court annuls the
President's election, the Constitution stipulates that the
Senate President administers an interim government for a
period of up to 90 days pending fresh elections. However,
Mark has his own political troubles as his election too had
been overturned in late February 2008.) Moreover, Sule
stated that in his judgment, the President's lackluster
performance over this past year should be viewed in light of
his ailing health. Despite his shortcomings, Sule said, some
of the northern elite continue to politically support
Yar'Adua not least because he is viewed as committed to
preserving northern interests.


5. (S//NF) While claiming that First Lady Turai Yar'Adua is
heavily involved in corrupt practices, and especially real
estate fraud, Sule insisted that President Yar'Adua is
committed to remaining personally untainted by corruption.
To that end, Sule asserted, President Yar'Adua recently
turned down approximately $60 million, which had been offered
to him by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)
as the President's personal "share" of Nigeria's monthly oil
earnings (Nigeria has produced around 2 million bpd, though
production has dropped recently to 1.8 million bpd).
Allegedly, Sule said, the NNPC (beginning under former
President Obasanjo's administration) allocated USD 1.00 per
barrel of Nigerian oil sold as a type of personal payment or
"kickback" to the President. While Yar'Adua reportedly
ordered his "share" to be deposited into the nation's
treasury, Sule claimed that the First Lady pocketed her
husband's reported share, while Senate President David Mark
and House Speaker Dimeji Bankole pocketed USD 0.50/barrel
(e.g., $30 million). In light of the possibility that
Obasanjo could have stolen billions of dollars under this
arrangement, Sule told PolOff that Yar'Adua told him that he
may use this information, perhaps one day in the near future,
to indict Obasanjo for corruption. The problem however,
according to Sule, rested in the fact that Yar'Adua
recognized that if he were to pursue Obasanjo, he may
unwittingly subject his wife and close advisers to greater
scrutiny, and risk his own political survival.


6. (S//NF) Sule said that Yar'Adua had effectively quashed
efforts by Obasanjo to direct Senate President David Mark, et
al. to inflate allocation requests for the 2008 budget in
order to funnel a substantial portion of those extra funds to
Obasanjo (Ref E). Sule told PolOff that the various chairs
of the budget committees in both the House of Representatives
and Senate were Obasanjo-loyalists. The disagreements
between the National Assembly (NASS) and President Yar'Adua
over the passage of the budget resulted from Yar'Adua's
desire to limit Obasanjo's influence over the NASS, and to
assert his own authority, Sule opined. Furthermore, Sule
said the Senate and House had unsuccessfully attempted to
extort money from the Presidency in order to pass the budget.


7. (C//NF) Retired Major General, and current chair of the
northern interest group the Arewa Consultative Forum, Ibrahim
Haruna (strictly protect) told PolOff May 29 that although
President Yar'Adua is a fellow northerner, he has been a
"disaster" for Nigeria since his inauguration May 2007.

ABUJA 00001018 003 OF 003


Haruna opined that Yar'Adua, in one year, has not delivered
on any of the promises he had made to the North. To the
contrary, Haruna asserted, Yar'Adua has been "reaping the
rewards" of the presidency without having to "lift a finger."
Haruna alleged that Yar'Adua has demonstrated during his
first year in office that he is more interested in "owning
oil wells" in the Delta than in conducting Nigeria's
political affairs.

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AN ANALYSIS
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8. (S//NF) We believe Sule's assessment that Yar'Adua is
successfully (albeit slowly) disengaging himself from
Obasanjo is valid, and his information on the First Lady's
alleged illicit enrichment activities tracks with other
reporting. However, Sule may be exaggerating the political
support Yar'Adua has in the North. Or, at the least, Sule
may be conflating the North's support for Yar'Adua with the
North's desire to hold onto its turn for the presidency.
Over the course of Yar'Adua's first year in office and slow
pace of reform, northern elite opinions of the President seem
to have gradually shifted (see also Ref D),as they worry not
only about his health but also forfeiting the presidency to
the South. While some have argued that Yar'Adua is committed
to safeguarding northern interests, others have maintained
that the President has proven to be both incapable and
unwilling to do anything positive for the North (and the rest
of Nigeria). Certainly, several northern contacts with whom
we have spoken have said, time and again, that the North
fears it may lose the helm of political affairs should
President Yar'Adua die in office or fail to return as the
PDP's candidate in any re-run of last year's presidential
race (in the event the Supreme Court overturns his April 2007
election). After one year in office, many northerners
consider Yar'Adua equally as complicit as Obasanjo in the
North's underdevelopment, and accuse the President of turning
a blind eye to his own region. After all, one of the
principal grievances of the North during Obasanjo's past
administration was not simply that Obasanjo was from the
South and ignored Northern interests, but that Obasanjo
successfully thwarted efforts by the North to exert its
relevance in his administration.


9. (S//NF) Additionally, many prominent northerners have
spoken out against not only Obasanjo's mismanagement of the
Nigerian government's vast resources, but also President
Yar'Adua's unimpressive record of performance over this past
year. It appears that the northern political elite's desire
to retain the presidency is separate, to a degree, from its
support for this particular northern president, or even for
concerns that Yar'Adua may be ineffectual or corrupt. In the
short term, desire for a Northern president may temper
criticism for Yar'Adua in certain circles. However, with
time, it is difficult to surmise how the desire for the North
to retain the presidency can sustain support for Yar'Adua
unless he begins to pick up the pace. END COMMENT.
SANDERS