WAR OF WORDS OVER DISARMAMENT PROCESS LINKED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000870


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IV
SUBJECT: WAR OF WORDS OVER DISARMAMENT PROCESS LINKED TO
IDENTIFICATION ISSUE

REF: ABIDJAN 639

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. President Gbagbo's political party, the FPI,
and Prime Minister Soro's Forces Nouvelles (FN)
movement have clashed verbally over the past few weeks with
the FPI insisting, once again, that disarmament be completed
before elections and the Forces Nouvelles accusing the FPI of
wanting to kill the Prime Minister.
Sidiki Konate, FN Spokesman and Minister of Tourism, and
Alain Lobognon, the Prime Minister's Communications Advisor,
held a press conference to explain impediments to the
disarmament process but openly accused N'Guessan of plotting
to assassinate Soro. To reduce the political tension this
exchange fueled, President Gbagbo met separately with FPI
and FN delegations on December 9. Lobognon told Poloff that
the Prime Minister has departed on vacation to ponder
the way forward, but will likely insist that Gbagbo provide
him with sufficient funding to carry out his job.
He may also press for a new Cabinet. According to Lobognon,
the FN discovered evidence three weeks ago that the FPI
wants elections postponed until 2010. End Summary.

FPI Calls for Disarmament Before Elections
--------------


2. (U) In a speech to a religious group in late November,
Mamadou Koulibaly, National Assembly President and FPI
hard-liner, warned that elections cannot be organized until
the FN disarm. According to press reports, Koulibaly
said that without judges and law enforcement elements in the
areas under the control of the FN it would be risky to have
elections because anyone could proclaim himself the winner.
The call for FN disarmament before elections was also taken
up by FPI President Affi N'Guessan, who along with the First
Lady, has made similar statements in the past (See Reftel).
N'Guessan held a press conference on November 28 and,
according to press reports, stated that holding elections
without disarmament by the FN makes no sense and would
signify the failure of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement
(OPA). N'Guessan reportedly called on President Gbagbo and
Prime Minister Soro to make disarmament and reunification of
the country their main priority and to ensure that elections
are held in a peaceful, reunified, and normal country.
N'Guessan met on December 3 with SRSG Choi to discuss the
status of the peace process. The press reported that
N'Guessan said the FPI's main concern is the need to restore
the government's authority throughout the national territory
and that he told Choi that disarmament before elections is
not negotiable.


FN Accuses FPI of Warmongering and Plotting PM's Assassination
-------------- --------------


3. (U) In response to the FPI statements, Sidiki Konate, FN
Spokesman and Minister of Tourism, and Alain Lobognon,
Communications Advisor to the Prime Minister, held a press
conference on December 3. They noted that according
to the OPA, disarmament means the merging of two armies into
a new army. They stated there is no lack of will
blocking disarmament, that its delay is of a financial and
technical nature, and that the FN could disarm in
weeks if financing was provided. They added that lack of
funding is also hampering the dismantlement of militias in
government-held territory. They said the FN are working to
establish a regime of unified customs and tax revenues in the
areas under their control.


4. (U) The statements by Konate and Lobognon took on a
sharper tone when they accused N'Guessan of taking extreme
positions to curry favor with some elements of his party.
They accused N'Guessan of maintaining armed bands to attempt
to assassinate the Prime Minister and described him as a
danger to the head of state and to his own political party.
They said N'Guessan is perpetuating war in Cote d'Ivoire
while Prime Minister Soro and President Gbagbo are working
hand in hand to bring lasting peace. They warned that a
"coup d'etat is being prepared against the OPA and stability
in Cote d'Ivoire."


5. (C) Alain Lobognon, the Prime Minister's Communications
Advisor, told Poloff December 9 that the statements
he and Minister Konate made were carefully considered ahead
of time. He said the FN had to respond because they
have found that it is more difficult to resolve disagreements
when they have ignored provocative statements made by the
FPI. Lobognon believes that N'Guessan did not consult with
Gbagbo before speaking out. He added that there is a
leadership struggle in the FPI and that Gbagbo seems to have
chosen Young Patriots leader Charles Ble Goude as the FPI's
future leader. According to Lobognon, Ble Goude currently
plays the role of messenger between the Presidency and the
Prime Minister's Office. Lobognon said that Soro, unlike
previous Prime Ministers, lacks the power of the purse. He
said the FN believe DDR is necessary and can carry it out if
the financial resources are made available.


6. (C) Cisse Sindou, Deputy Director of the FN Cabinet, told
Poloff on December 5 that he personally found the statements
made by Konate and Lobognon "too strong." He described their
declarations as mere political talk and said that kind of
public discourse would not continue. According to Sindou,
N'Guessan wants the end of the peace process and is trying to
halt the identification process. Sindou noted that
disarmament in Cote d'Ivoire does not follow the classic
model. He said the FN have disarmed and are awaiting the
establishment of a new army. He told Poloff that both
parties to the OPA are awaiting the Facilitator's decision
regarding the pending military issues. (Note: A fourth
protocol to the OPA, which will cover military issues -
including the question of grades and ranks - is under
negotiation.) He added that neither side will be totally
satisfied with the decision, but both sides will have to
accept it.


7. (C) Lobognon confirmed to Poloff that the FN are awaiting
the Facilitator's final decision on the military issues,
noting that the Facilitator is expected to make the
announcement in January, when the CPC is tentatively
scheduled to meet again. Lobognon told Poloff that in the
last draft the FN reviewed, the Facilitator largely acceded
to the Presidency's proposals. In response to why the FN
accepted the draft, Lobognon said that the FPI had agreed
that the new army would not come into existence until an
elected President takes office.

FPI Calls For Suspension of Identification
--------------


8. (U) On December 4, one day after the FN press conference,
N'Guessan met with Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
President Mambe. He told journalists that he asked the CEI
to consider the possibility of suspending the
identification/voter registration process in the areas under
FN control. According to press reports, N'Guessan noted that
the environment in the FN-held areas is conducive to
corruption and fraud because of the absence of state
authority.


9. (C) Prime Minister Soro issued a press release on December
5 noting that the identification/voter registration process
is proceeding smoothly and calling on all political actors to
remain calm and to abstain from acts that endanger the OPA.
Lobognon told Poloff that the Prime Minister is frustrated by
CEI President Mambe's constant revision of the budget he
claims to need to carry out the identification/voter
registration process. Lobognon speculated that Mambe is in
no rush to have elections since his position as CEI President
provides him with a good living and lots of perks.


Prime Minister Pondering Way Forward
--------------


10. (C) Prime Minister Soro has just departed for a vacation
in Italy and Lobognon told Poloff that Soro is taking some
time off to ponder the way forward. According to Lobognon, 3
weeks ago the FN received information confirming that the FPI
wants to delay elections until 2010. When asked if he was
referring to the FPI or to President
Gbagbo as well, Lobognon responded that the FPI is Gbagbo.
Lobognon said one option for the Prime Minister would be
resignation, but that Soro knows that is not the right choice
since it would mean the end of the OPA and chaos. Lobognon
said the Prime Minister will insist on having the funding he
needs to carry out his job and may ask for the formation of a
new government. Lobognon confirmed that the Linas-Marcoussis
signatories would all be represented in such a new
government, but explained that the Prime Minister, rather
than the political parties, would choose the individuals to
designate as Ministers. Lobognon noted that it is impossible
to work with a cabinet that includes candidates for the
presidency as well as candidates' campaign managers.


11. (C) Comment. Previous peace agreements have unraveled
over issues relating to the identification process.
Implementation of the OPA has now reached that stage. FPI
calls for disarmament before elections make little
sense at this point with the November 30 election date
annulled and a new one not yet set. FN allegations that the
FPI's objective is to disrupt the identification process are
therefore credible, but the FN's accusations against
the FPI president were so provocative that they generated
widespread speculation over whether the verbal sparring
between the two was real or staged. FPI stalwarts are
undoubtedly frustrated by the fact that the war is
technically over and the zone of confidence has been
dismantled, but the FN still effectively control half the
country, despite the return of most civilian officials.
These same stalwarts consistently sidestep legitimate
questions, however, about how the disarmament process will be
financed. For their part, the FN are correct in
stating that the Ivoirian government has failed to meet its
commitment to finance the civil service and other
reintegration programs but they have not been particularly
transparent about explaining what the "taxes" they
collect in the north are supporting. The FPI is clearly
eager to regain control of the entire national territory,
we suspect for monetary as well as political reasons, but the
Forces Nouvelles are clearly not ready to disarm and hand
back that control. Mistrust between the two sides is still
quite high and we have probably not seen the
last of the war of words over the disarmament issue. End
Comment.


NESBITT