PRESIDENT GBAGBO DISCUSSES ELECTION DELAY, DDR ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000822


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGVO KDEM EAID IV
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT GBAGBO DISCUSSES ELECTION DELAY, DDR
ISSUES

REF: A) ABIDJAN 595 B) ABIDJAN 817

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda Nesbitt for Reasons 1.5(B/D)


1. (C) Summary: In a November 13 meeting with Ambassador,
President Gbagbo said he was disappointed that elections have
been postponed again but does not see what he can do to speed
up the process; the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
needs to work more quickly and effectively. He was calm and
matter of fact about the delay but did not appear to be
overly worried about it. Gbagbo confirmed that DDR remains
stalled while negotiations over how to resolve the issue of
grades/ranks continue, and indicated his opposition to two of
the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) key proposals: the transformation
of the existing national army (FANCI) into a new structure
comprising both forces, and the integration of 5,000 FAFN
soldiers into a national force. End Summary

2.(C) Ambassador called on President Gbagbo to discuss the
November 10 CPC (Permanent Consultative Framework) meeting in
Ouagadougou and when he thought elections might be
rescheduled. Gbagbo said the CPC meeting was not at all
contentious; the participants readily agreed that the
election had to be postponed because the voter registration
process was nowhere near complete. Gbagbo said that no one
had tried to defend the CEI, and his analysis was that the
CEI had made the mistake of trying to create an entirely new
structure of its own instead of drawing on existing
structures, such as the INS (National Institute of
Statistics) and civil servants posted around the country.
Gbagbo claimed that CEI president Mambe had made no effort to
solicit the assistance of the regional prefects until
October. He expected the CEI to work more closely with local
officials now that the CPC had encouraged them to do so. The
president reminded Ambassador that the electoral commission
is comprised mainly of politicians who do not have a lot of
technical expertise (see ref A),and is dominated by the
opposition. He said he had not insisted that the CEI work
more closely with the Ministry of Interior, the department
that oversees the prefectural system (and is headed by one of
Gbagbo's closest allies),because he had not wanted to appear
to be imposing conditions or accused of trying to compromise
the electoral commission's independence.


3. (C) President Gbagbo would not speculate about when the
election might take place. He told Ambassador that he was
disturbed by the delay but did not see that he could do much
about it. Ambassador stressed to Gbagbo that the US wants to
see elections take place as soon as possible, noting that
Cote d'Ivoire could not move forward on many development
issues as long as there is a perception that the country is
still in crisis. Gbagbo agreed and said that one of his
greatest frustrations is that he cannot truly govern with a
national unity cabinet; too many of the ministers pay
allegiance to the opposition and have no desire to help the
current government succeed. Ambassador told Gbagbo that she
had met the previous week with Finance Minister Diby to
discuss HIPC debt relief and the improvements that Cote
d'Ivoire needed to make to reach the decision point.
Somewhat surprisingly, the president appeared to view it as a
technical issue and merely encouraged Ambassador to continue
her discussions with the Finance Minister.


4. (C) Ambassador asked the president if any progress had
been made on DDR issues at the CPC. Gbabgbo's response was
that negotiations are continuing. He said that he does not
agree with the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) that the country needs
a "new" army. (Note: the FAFN's position has been that it
will join a new army but will not 'return' to the FANCI.)
"We already have an army", Gbagbo said. The president also
said that the FANCI could not absorb 5,000 soldiers, the
number the FAFN wants to contribute to a new force. Gbagbo
said that the ethnic composition of the army would be skewed
too heavily towards northerners were the FANCI to take in
5,000; he though 2,500 might be reasonable. Gbagbo also
reiterated his view that the Comzones must depart before the
election and that disarmament should be largely completed
before the election as well. He did not, however, explain
how this could happen if the grades/ranks issue is not
resolved soon.


5. (C) Comment: The president seemed very relaxed and
talkative but deliberately skirted the quesion of when an
election might take place. He congratulated the US on
holding an exemplary and historic election, and gave
Ambassador the text of an article he wrote himself on the
importance of the US election. Although he said all the
right things, Gbagbo did not appear to be genuinely concerned
about the election delay. Nor did he appear to be interested
in discussing HIPC debt relief. In fact, Gbagbo gave the
impression of being satisfied that things were going very
much his way. The creation of a new army has been a critical
issue for the Forces Nouvelles and Gbagbo's rejection of the
concept could prove to be a serious stumbling block to
progress on DDR. End Comment


NESBITT