PDCI SAYS TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS IN 2008 A MUST,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000591

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IV
SUBJECT: PDCI SAYS TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS IN 2008 A MUST,
EVEN IF SOME VOTERS EXCLUDED

Classified By: PolEcon Section Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d)
.



1. (C) Summary. In a September 2 meeting, PDCI (Democratic
Party of Cote d'Ivoire) Secretary General Alphonse Djedje
Mady told Ambassador that Cote d'Ivoire must hold elections
in 2008. If it does not, the Ouagadougou Political Agreement
(OPA) will be defunct and a new government framework will
have to be installed. According to Mady, it is critical that
elections are not marred by violence and that citizens
freely cast their votes. However, he believes that elections
can be credible as long as all political parties accept the
electoral list, even if some voters cannot be registered in
time before the election. End Summary.

Ethnicity's Link to Politics
--------------


2. (SBU) In response to the Ambassador's query about whether
ethnicity and political parties are inextricably linked in
Cote d'Ivoire, Mady said he believes that it is possible to
overcome this historical connection. He noted that the
Constitution forbids the establishment of political parties
based on religion or ethnicity. Djedje Mady explained that
Cote d'Ivoire's founding father, Felix Houphouet Boigny, said
that the nation of Cote d'Ivoire had to be created over the
course of generations. Mady believes that, while progress
has been made on separating politics from ethnicity, much
still needs to be done.

Meeting November 30 Date Challenging But Feasible
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Mady told the Ambassador that the RHDP, the umbrella
group of opposition parties of which he is the President, met
with the Prime Minister, the Independent Electoral Commission
(CEI),and the OPA Facilitator's Representative to express
concern about meeting the November 30 election date in light
of the delays in the identification and voter registration
processes. Mady said that all interlocutors stated that
enough cushion has been built into the election timeline to
still permit observance of the November 30 date. Mady noted
that if the parties responsible for organizing the election
say that that November 30 date is viable, the political
opposition cannot publicly state that it is not, even if they
privately have doubts.

Must Have Elections in 2008
--------------


4. (C) Mady said observance of the November 30 date is not
crucial as long as the elections take place in 2008.
According to Mady, President Laurent Gbagbo has no intention
of holding elections before 2010, when he will have completed
2 terms of office. Mady said that this cannot be allowed.
However, Mady told the Ambassador that the PDCI will accept a
Gbagbo victory in free and fair elections.


5. (C) Ambassador asked Mady whether it would not be better
to postpone elections until 2009 and have a thorough
identification process rather than risk imperfect elections
in 2008. Mady demurred, saying that Cote d'Ivoire needs a
legitimately elected government sooner rather than later for
the country to return to normalcy and for foreign investment
to resume. He said that as long as 7-8 million voters are
registered, the PDCI would be ready to go to elections. The
transparency of the voting process, he said, is more
important than the identification of every potential voter.
Working from this assumption, Mady explained that credible
elections could still be held in 2008, if all political
parties agree to a new electoral list. The 2000 electoral
list contained approximately 5 million voters and is already
in the process of being updated. He implied that documenting
voters from the 2000 list would be relatively simple. The key
will be to add a sufficient number of new voters (those who
were 18 in 2000, but were not registered and those who
reached 18 since 2000) to arrive at a credible number of
voters (which the PDCI puts at 7-8 million),even if every
possible voter cannot be registered in time for an election
in 2008.


6. (C) Ambassador asked Mady what will happen if elections
are not held in 2008. Mady responded that the OPA will be
defunct and a new government framework will have to be
installed. His rationale is that the OPA calls for elections
within a specific timeframe and that if the timeframe is not
met, the accord is no longer valid.

Constitution Cannot Be Used to Delay Election
--------------

ABIDJAN 00000591 002 OF 002




7. (C) Ambassador noted that a local paper has highlighted
the fact that the Constitution states that if the national
territory is not intact, elections cannot be held.
Ambassador asked Mady if he thought Gbagbo might use this
constitutional provision to justify a postponement of the
elections. Mady responded that this would not be possible
because Gbagbo himself had declared that the war was over and
the country reunited during the July 30, 2007 "Flame of
Peace" ceremony in Bouake. Mady said Gbagbo cannot now argue
that the country is not in fact united, especially since
Prefects and sub-Prefects are in office in cities throughout
the north.


8. (C) Comment. The fact that the entities organizing the
election - the Prime Minister's Office and the CEI - have
told the RHDP that the November 30 date is feasible explains
why the political opposition has not been publicly critical
of the delay in the commencement of the identification and
voter registration processes. While Mady's argument that
holding elections without a full registration of the nation's
eligible voters is politically expedient, it may not pass
muster with the Forces Nouvelles who carried out the
rebellion to garner rights for formerly allegedly
disenfranchised northerners. It is also unclear that UNOCI
would be able to certify the electoral list. Most disturbing
is Mady's assertion that the OPA will become null and void if
elections are not held in 2008. Embassy is not sure that
other parties would agree with this assessment (and will
pursue the question) but if Mady is correct a termination of
the OPA would be a major setback. The Forces Nouvelles could
decide that they have no reason to continue to support the
peace process or disarm, making a resumption of the rebellion
and hostilities a real possibility.






NESBITT