PATH TO TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS FRAUGHT WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000120

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER-RKANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV IV
SUBJECT: PATH TO TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS FRAUGHT WITH
POTENTIAL DELAYS AND PITFALLS

REF: A. ABIDJAN 103


B. ABIDJAN 51

Classified By: Pol/Econ Section Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d
)


1. (C) Summary. Ambassador met on February 19 with
Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Electorale
Independante - CEI) President Mambe to discuss the status of
election preparations. Some progress has been achieved.
Mambe told Ambassador all political actors have accepted the
2000 electoral list and have agreed that voters will be able
to register with only a birth certificate and will not need a
certificate of nationality. But a key step, reconstitution
of civil registries, has not begun and the relationship
between the technical operator (contractor who will produce
the voter ID cards) and government institutions remains
unresolved. Mambe told Ambassador that it is not clear that
all political actors are committed to holding transparent
elections in 2008. End Summary.


2. (C) Ambassador met on February 19 with CEI President
Robert Beugre Mambe to discuss the status of election
preparations. Mambe said elections must be held to
demonstrate that Cote d'Ivoire can be a functioning democracy
and added that the sort of violence that recently afflicted
Kenya must be avoided. Ambassador noted the importance of
remaining vigilant during the preparations leading to
elections. She told Mambe that she does not believe Cote
d'Ivoire faces the same problems as Kenya, but agreed that
violence is possible in connection with the elections in Cote
d'Ivoire.

Pool of Potential Voters
--------------


3. (SBU) Mambe explained that Ivoirian voters fall into three
groups: 1) those on the 2000 electoral list, 2) those who
were 18 and over in 2000, but did not register to vote, and
3) those who have turned 18 since 2000. Mambe told
Ambassador that all political parties have now accepted the
authenticity of the 2000 electoral list. He said that all
persons on the 2000 list will have to appear with a birth
certificate and be issued an identification/voter
registration card. Mambe stated that voters in groups 2 and
3 who have birth documentation can register to vote; and
those in groups 2 and 3 whose births were never registered
will have to seek recourse from the audiences foraines, but
will be able to register with a jugement suppletif. No
nationality certificate will be needed. Mambe was unable to
provide a figure for how many persons this might represent.
Therefore, the audiences foraines process must finish before
the voter registration can begin. Mambe confirmed that all
111 audiences foraines teams have been deployed. Under
current planning, the audiences foraines should end their
work by the end of April at the latest.


4. (SBU) Mambe noted that the issue of documents for voters
in all three groups whose births were registered, but who
have lost their documents, will be addressed by the
reconstitution of the civil registries. Mambe said this
process has not begun since agreement has not yet been
reached on how the reconstitution will be carried out. Mambe
explained that the Ministries of Interior and Justice have
joint responsibility for this process and said it is possible
to complete the reconstitution in approximately 2 months. A
lack of sufficient judges (See Reftel A) could be
contributing to the government's delay in beginning this
process, but Mambe was not certain if this is indeed the
reason for the delay.


5. (C) Mambe said unequivocally that there is agreement by
all political actors that Ivoirians will be able to register
to vote by showing only birth certification and that no one
will be asked to produce a certificate of nationality to
register to vote. Mambe explained that once the draft
electoral list is published, it will be possible for
individuals to challenge the citizenship of others on the
list.

Mechanics of Organizing the Election
--------------


6. (SBU) Mambe said the Prime Minister's office and the CEI
have agreed on revisions to the legal framework governing the
elections, but that the Prime Minister must now obtain the
approval of the rest of the government. He explained that
modifications to the electoral code have been proposed to
permit the gathering of biometric data from voters and to

allow the CEI to unilaterally decide on technical
specifications for electoral materials.


7. (C) Mambe told Ambassador that the operating guidelines
for the technical operator, French company SAGEM, have not
yet been agreed upon. According to the OPA, SAGEM is to work
on the identification operation, voter registration, and the
production of voter cards. Mambe explained that once the
operating guidelines are agreed upon, the government must
enter into a contract with SAGEM and make a first payment of
about USD 30 million. Mambe confirmed that operating
guidelines have not yet been agreed upon because there is
still disagreement about the working relationship between
SAGEM, CEI, and the National Institute of Statistics
(Institut National de la Statistique - INS). He explained
that the Ouagadougou Political Agreement (OPA) states that
SAGEM and the INS will work together to establish the
electoral list under the oversight of the CEI. Mambe told
Ambassador that the CEI has proposed that CEI, INS, SAGEM,
the National Office of Identification (Office National
d'Identification - ONI) and the National Supervisory
Commission on Identification (Commission Nationale de
Supervision de l'Identification - CNSI) all have
representatives at voter registration sites. According to
Mambe, the CEI has suggested that CEI, SAGEM, and INS publish
the draft electoral list and that the CEI examine comments on
the draft list and pass them on to INS and SAGEM for
publication of the final electoral list. Mambe said the CEI
has also suggested that SAGEM and INS produce the voter cards
and that CEI distribute them.


8. (C) Mambe said there will be 11,000 polling stations and
20,000 to 22,000 voting booths. He noted that observers, who
will have to go through an accreditation process, will be
permitted at polling stations and that transparent elections
are technically possible in October or November. He told the
Ambassador that if all political players agree to hold
elections earlier even if not all eligible voters have
received the documentation needed to register to vote, the
CEI would have to accept that decision. He added that the
CEI will not agree to such a scenario if any political party
opposes it. Mambe stated that CEI has responsibility for
ensuring security for the election and through the Integrated
Command Center (Centre de Commandement Integre - CCI) will
work with the UN Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI),the
French "Licorne" troops, and the Ministry of Defense.

Political Will
--------------


9. (C) Ambassador asked Mambe if the necessary political will
exists to hold elections in 2008. Mambe candidly responded
that while publicly all political actors are calling for
elections, in private it is not so clear that all actors are
committed to holding transparent elections and that some seem
concerned about being able to remain in power. Mambe added
that some players clearly benefit from the continuation of
the status quo.


10. (C) Comment. Emboffs were impressed with the degree to
which the CEI has laid out all the various steps that should
be taken to ensure a transparent election. Mambe's briefing
was thorough and extremely well organized. The briefing also
drove home, however, the fact that there are dozens of steps
that remain to be taken before the elections and that a delay
in any number of them could force a postponement of the
elections. For example, as long as the operating guidelines
for SAGEM remain unresolved, the registration and
documentation of voters cannot begin. It will likely be
several months before the reconstitution of civil registries
process begins, meaning that many voters will not have the
documents they need to register until this summer. SAGEM
will need to deploy equipment throughout the country and
train personnel on how to use it. Even if the political will
to hold elections this year continues to be present, meeting
the technical requirements for a credible election will be a
challenge.
NESBITT