FIXED-WING FIGHTERS: TIME TO ENGAGE CROATIANS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000789

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FROM AMBASSADOR FOR DOD DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FATA
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR MASS MOPS NATO HR DEFENSE REFORM
SUBJECT: FIXED-WING FIGHTERS: TIME TO ENGAGE CROATIANS ON
PROCUREMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Since my arrival just over a year ago, I have
repeatedly stressed to GoC officials that, as a future NATO
member, Croatia did not need to procure fixed-wing fighter
aircraft. I, along with my DAO and ODC staff, have argued
consistently that the GoC could rely on NATO partners for air
policing and would be much wiser to invest in rotary wing and
medium lift capabilities. The Croatians, however, have
remained steadfast in their commitment to procure fighters
and have publicly announced it as the next big procurement in
their military modernization plans. Saab has already begun
aggressively marketing the Swedish Gripen. I believe it is
time to stop discouraging this procurement and begin
educating the Croatians on the true costs and complexities of
a fighter purchase in order to persuade them that, if they
are going to buy fighters, then U.S. F-16s are the best
choice for this air force.

WAR EXPERIENCE DRIVING FIXED-WING FIXATION
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2. (C) Minister of Defense Berislav Roncevic has told me
directly that the GoC cannot be talked out of fighter jets.
Memories of the air raids the early 1990s are too fresh in
Croatian minds, making this an emotional argument that defies
fiscal logic. "My son," Roncevic told me, "will never have
to use a bomb shelter." The Prime Minister and others have
echoed this sentiment.


3. (C) While at one time we may have thought this procurement
was driven only by senior air force officers looking to keep
fast movers in their inventory, it is now clear to me that
the decision to procure fighters has been made at the top
levels of the GoC and is irreversible. While no formal
tender has been issued, the military has begun actively
studying fighter options, with new Gripens and refitted F-16s
already named as the leading contenders.

TIME TO EDUCATE AND START MARKETING
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4. (C) I propose that we begin extensive education
immediately to make the Croatians smart customers. Our
objective should be to make sure they set realistic timelines
for this procurement and are aware of the true maintenance
costs of fighter aircraft and their future impact on
Croatia's defense budget. The Gripen vs. F-16 match-up is
not a new one -- we learned valuable lessons in the F-16 sale
to Poland and the Gripen sale in Hungary that should be
shared with the Croatians to guide their tender process.


5. (C) This month, credible press reports indicate that the
GoC will choose a Finnish armored personnel carrier over one
from the subsidiary of a U.S. manufacturer, at least in part
due to the superior marketing efforts of the Finns. This has
convinced me that we must engage now and engage assertively.
Saab has already begun its Gripen marketing campaign to the
Croatians, opening an office in Zagreb, providing detailed
technical specifications for the Ministry of Defense's
procurement study, touring military personnel and journalists
through the factory, and effectively working the media. The
US has done none of this. Saab is already seen in the
hallways of the Defense Ministry as the more serious partner.
We should move quickly to catch up in order to be
competitive on this procurement.

DISTINGUISHED VISITORS TRIP OFFERS ENGAGEMENT OPPORTUNITY
-------------- --------------


6. (C) A distinguished visitors orientation tour (DVOT) to
Washington and Tampa scheduled for September 10-20 provides a
unique opportunity to engage top Croatian military officials
on this issue. Participants include DCHOD LTG Baric, Air
Force Cmdr BG Bagaric, Army Cmdr LTG Kruljac, J-4 BG Ostovic,
and J-7 BG Matanovic. In addition, Air Force Cmdr BG Bagaric
will attend an air commanders' conference in the US following
the DVOT and may have several open days between these events.
An additional opportunity to engage GoC officials may also
present itself at an Adriatic-3/Baltic-3 meeting of defense
and foreign ministers in mid-October in Split, Croatia.
BRADTKE