SDP NOMINATES JURCIC AS CANDIDATE FOR PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000670

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: SDP NOMINATES JURCIC AS CANDIDATE FOR PRIME
MINISTER

REF: ZAGREB 546

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBERT A.BRADTKE FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The opposition Social Democratic Party of
Croatia (SDP) has nominated economics professor and Former
Minister of Economy Ljubo Jurcic as its candidate for Prime
Minister. Although not altogether new in Croatia, the idea
of separating the role of PM from that of Party President was
initially backed by the recently deceased former PM and SDP
chief Ivica Racan. On July 10, SDP officially accepted the
idea of separating the roles under the proposal of new Party
President Zoran Milanovic (ref A). Despite Jurcic's
nomination, Milanovic's name will still be first on candidate
lists in all districts at parliamentary elections expected in
November. While a popular figure, Jurcic is not a
politician, and he is an untested campaigner. He has already
been criticized by some for what they see as a backward
economic outlook, his failure to clean up privatization
during his tenure as Economic Minister, and his mishandling
of a discussion of his family's role in WWII. By teaming him
with the youthful, ambitious, Milanovic, the SDP risks
squandering its current lead in the polls, and confusing
voters as to what the party stands for. END SUMMARY.

DIVIDING PRIME MINISTER AND PARTY PRESIDENT ROLES
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2. (U) On July 10, the Chief Committee of the main
opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) accepted professor
Ljubo Jurcic as its candidate for PM. Earlier in the year
Jurcic had presented his economic program, which promotes
regionally-based industrialization. Although not officially
an SDP party member until May 2007, Jurcic was originally
backed for the PM job by Racan, who died in late April.
Milanovic, Racan's youthful associate and loyal supporter,
immediately accepted the idea of separating the positions of
PM and party President, offering "teamwork" as an alternative
to a super-powerful PM. Despite opinions in the party that
he himself would perhaps be a better PM choice, Milanovic
kept his word, proposing to the
Chief Committee that it select Jurcic instead.


3. (U) At the same time, Milanovic proposed that the
Committee appoint himself as the "bearer" of SDP tickets in
all electoral districts, which the Committee accepted, too.
In practical terms, this means that Milanovic's name will
appear at the top of every ballot, regardless of whether or
not he runs in a given district. Despite doubts about its
democratic legitimacy, Croatian political parties across the
spectrum have widely used this legal provision. Milanovic
described this decision as a "clear act of claiming
responsibility for election results." He has clearly decided
to play on his current new-kid-on-the-block popularity, at a
time when polls continue to give his party advantage over the
ruling HDZ. Speaking at the Committee meeting, Milanovic
pointed out the need to reinforce the role of parliament,
which immediately led observers to conclude that he was
aiming to become the Speaker of Parliament.


4. (C) COMMENT: While scoring well in the opinion polls for
his honesty and integrity, Jurcic is a soft spoken academic
and not a politician. He lacks the skills of a tested
campaigner, and is unlikely to match up well against Prime
Minister Sanader. Already there is criticism of Jurcic's
economic program for relying too heavily on
re-industrialization and of his past lackluster record as
Minister of Economy. His reference in a recent interview to
several uncles who fought for the Ustasha movement also
demonstrated a certain political naivete and forced him to
respond defensively (albeit correctly) about his own
long-standing anti-fascist and social democratic views.


5. (C) A further complication will be how well Jurcic and the
brash, outspoken and ambitious Milanovic will work together.
Riding sympathy after the death of Racan, and Milanovic's
popularity as a new face, the SDP has opened up a lead in
polls. However, by dividing the leadership between the two
such different persons, and SDP risks opening itself to
criticism and attack over who is really in charge. END
COMMENT.
BRADTKE