SURVEY SHOWS HERITAGE PARTY THE BIG WINNER OF THE MAY 12

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000984

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AM
SUBJECT: SURVEY SHOWS HERITAGE PARTY THE BIG WINNER OF THE MAY 12
ELECTIONS

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A recent USAID-funded poll has found that Raffi Hovannisian
and his Heritage party gained the greatest increase in recognition
and popularity following the May 12 Armenian Parliamentary
elections. The poll further showed that the vast majority of the
Armenian electorate has very little confidence in the accuracy of
the election results or in the prospect of truly free and fair
elections in the near future. Hovannisian seems poised to stir up
Armenian politics, starting with an August 26 special election in a
region where his party did well in May. END SUMMARY.

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WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN, WHO'S OUT
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2. (SBU) A USAID-commissioned survey done by the International
Republican Institute (IRI),the Gallup Organization and the Armenian
Sociological Association in mid-July indicated that Raffi
Hovannisian's Heritage party had by far the most dramatic increase
in party recognition and favorability ratings, while opposition
rivals lost ground. Ninety-five percent of respondents indicated
that they recognized the Heritage Party by name and 66% of
respondents had a favorable opinion of the party. When asked prior
to formal election campaigning in March, the same question garnered
only a 68% recognition rate with just 28% favorability. While a few
other parties enjoyed expected increases in recognition from the
election campaign, no party came close to achieving such an increase
in both recognition and favorability. The poll revealed that at
29%, the Heritage Party has the lowest unfavorability (negative
opinion) rating in the country. It now ties the Prosperous Armenian
party in favorability, and beats out the ruling Republican party,
which enjoys 54% approval, a rate basically unchanged by the
election.


3. (SBU) Most rival opposition parties received a slight increase
in public awareness, but retained virtually the same low levels of
popularity they had had before the election. The National Unity,
National Democratic Union, People's, Republic, United Labor and New
Times parties all maintained their overwhelmingly unfavorable
status. Even Artur Baghdasarian's Orinats Yerkir party, once the
leading opposition faction, was only able to maintain equal
favorable and unfavorable ratings, despite its showing in the
elections in which it (officially) outpolled its Heritage rival.

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MAKINGS OF A HORSE RACE?
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4. (SBU) The poll found that in a hypothetical presidential race
that were to include Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian and the Heritage
Party chairman, the two politicians are statistically tied and far
outpoll any other possible contenders. When respondents were asked
to name the top two presidential candidates for whom they would
vote, Hovhannissian outpaced Sargsian 36% to 30%.

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FREE, FAIR OR FOUL?
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5. (U) When asked, sixty-eight percent of those polled responded
that they did not believe the May 2007 election was "free and fair."
Furthermore, 60% responded that the GOAM was not sincere about
efforts to improve the integrity of the 2008 presidential poll and
there would therefore not be any real improvement by then.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU): Hovannisian 's brilliantly-run pre-election campaign
successfully converted the sky-high personal favorability ratings
Hovannisian has long enjoyed in Armenia into a very respectable
number of ballots cast. This poll shows that that success has bred
additional success: now that the party has proved itself, many more
voters seem prepared to back Heritage than voted for it on May 12.
Meanwhile, Hovannisian 's most credible potential rivals for the
opposition banner are slipping backward rapidly. One test of his
favorability surge will come August 26 during the special, re-run
election for the 15th district. Hovannisian is running for the
majoritarian seat. That contest -- in a district in which the
Heritage party polled well on May 12 -- will be an early bellwether
of Hovannisian's effectiveness and a chance to make or possibly
break Heritage's political momentum. END COMMENT.

PERINA