ELECTION FRAUD COMPLAINTS PROCEED ON SEVERAL TRACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000709

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM AM
SUBJECT: ELECTION FRAUD COMPLAINTS PROCEED ON SEVERAL TRACKS


YEREVAN 00000709 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Four opposition parties have filed election
complaints with the Constitutional Court, calling for the May
12 elections to be voided. Their contention is that
sufficient irregularities occurred to invalidate the
election. The Constitutional Court hearing is scheduled to
begin June 1. Three majoritarian candidates have separately
filed Constitutional Court appeals, though those hearings
remain to be scheduled. Prosecutors are also investigating
some 14 specific criminal complaints of election fraud. The
likelihood of the Constitutionl Court voiding the election
results is nil. We do expect, however, some prosecutions and
convictions for violations in some areas. While these will
hopefully serve as a deterrent for future elections, they
will not placate some of the opposition, which will
undoubtedly declare the parliament illegitimate. END
SUMMARY.

-------------- -
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT TO REVIEW THE BIG PICTURE
-------------- -


2. (SBU) Opposition parties Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law),
Republic, New Times, and the Impeachment Bloc have filed
Constitutional Court claims to overturn the May 12 election
results. Meanwhile, the opposition Heritage Party and
People's Party of Armenia each announced they had chosen not
to file complaints of their own, but had provided evidence to
the other complainant parties for use in the court
proceedings. The four complaints were filed separately, but
the court has announced it will combine the complaints into a
single package for joint hearing and adjudication.


3. (SBU) Republic's Aram Sargsian was publicly downbeat
about the court proceedings: "I don,t expect the
Constitutional Court to rule in our favor," he said. "Make no
mistake about that. This Constitutional Court will never make
such a decision." He added "In that court, we will simply
prove our righteousness to everyone."


4. (C)) The Chief of Staff of the Constitutional Court
Arushan Hakobian told us that, in addition to the complaints
filed by the parties on the proportional vote, three
majoritarian candidates had also filed claims with the court.
Specifically, Heghine Bisharian of Orinats Yerkir (TEC 11),
Hovhannes Margarian also of Orinats Yerkir (TEC 33),and
independent candidate Mushegh Saghatelyan (TEC 36). The
Constitutional Court has not announced a hearing date for
these complaints.

--------------
PROSECUTORS INVESTIGATE CRIMINAL COMPLAINTS
--------------


5. (C) On May 22, the office of the Prosecutor General (PG)
announced it had completed criminal investigations into four
cases of election violations, involving 13 defendants
altogether, and had already passed them to the courts for
trial. Deputy Prosecutor General Gevorg Danielian told us
May 29 that ten additional cases are still under
investigation.


6. (SBU) The first of the four cases referred for trial
regarded falsification of election results in Armavir is with
the first-instance (lowest level) court in that city. The
Armavir prosecutor found that nine members of the precinct
commission in Getashen village intentionally changed
elections results, through willful miscounting of ballots.
The potential punishment for this crime is from 2 to 5 years
in prison.


7. (SBU) A second case before the Armavir court is for the
charge of hooliganism. The PG's office reports that
representatives of two competing majoritarian candidates in
TEC 16 clashed in one of the polling places. Allegedly the
confrontation escalated to the point they started shooting at
each other, according to the prosecutor's filing.


8. (SBU) Two more criminal cases were sent to the courts
based on alleged bribing of voters. One of these cases is in
Armavir, and the second one is in the city of Hrazdan. The
first instance court in Hrazdan will hold hearings on May 31,
2007, on that case.

--------------
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION COMPLAINTS
--------------


9. (SBU) The Central Election Commission has also maintained
a procedure for voters or parties to register formal

YEREVAN 00000709 002.2 OF 002


complaints related to the conduct of elections, though of
course this is a non-judicial procedure. The CEC has posted
to its website (in Armenian language only) summations of each
of the 76 complaints it has received, which span from the
beginning of the official campaign period until just after
Election Day, and supplies the CEC's action of resolution.
Many of the complaints are summarized quite vaguely, such as
"voter complained of problem with the conduct of polling in
precint XX/XX." In none of these cases does the CEC action
seem to us definitive. Many complaints are answered by
referring the complainant to prosecutors, while others simply
find the complaint groundless.


10. (C) Artak Zeynalian, of the opposition Republic party,
told us the CEC kept instructing party representatives to
send applications/complaints to the PG's office for
investigation, whereupon the PG's office frequently told
applicants that their complaints lacked legal basis.
Zeynalian claimed that this circular process denied any
effective remedy. Zeynalian, not incidentally, was the
single most frequent complainant listed on the CEC's website.
Zeynalian also claimed that first instance courts likewise
avoided accepting claims.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) It is too soon to judge whether authorities are doing
a sufficiently thorough job of investigating and prosecuting
election-related fraud. We predict only modest results, much
less than a full and objective airing of the dirty linen, but
perhaps just enough to deflect international criticism. The
results will certainly not be enough to satisfy those
opposition parties that still hope (however improbably) to
whip up enough popular furor in the streets to throw the
government out.


12. (C) SO, WHAT DO WE DO NOW?: We have to decide how tough
a line to take, especially given our perception that no other
actor in the international community seems to have any
appetite whatsoever to hold Armenia's feet to the fire.
While the government has, in our view, fallen well short of
the full letter and spirit of free and fair elections, it is
equally undeniable they've done much better than ever before.
Our recommendation is to keep on the nuanced tack we have
taken so far, offering muted congratulations for the concrete
steps forward, while continuing to offer tactful,
constructive criticism. Presidential elections will be soon
upon us in February 2008. If we hope to get any other
electoral improvements made by that time, to say nothing of
our other diplomatic priorities, we'll have to pick our
battles.
GODFREY