ARMENIA'S SOUTHERNMOST REGION ON ELECTIONS: SO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000594

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S SOUTHERNMOST REGION ON ELECTIONS: SO
FAR, SO GOOD


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Classified By: Poloff Daniel M. Renna for reason 1.4(b)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a late April visit to Syunik marz, the most remote
and one of the poorest of Armenia's regions, Poloffs learned
that the voting public is engaged and is generally looking
forward to the May 12 polls. This despite a widespread sense
of intimidation amongst the populace and trepidation towards
the GOAM leadership's repeated calls for transparent
elections. The local branch of the ruling Republicans has a
more heavy-handed reputation here than in most other parts of
the country. Nevertheless, political parties of all stripes
are active and seem to be doing their best, in relatively
unhindered conditions, to get their respective messages out
to Armenia's southernmost constituents. While the
majoritarian races will by all accounts ensure the
Republicans two seats in the new National Assembly, the
proportional race seems much more in the air. END SUMMARY.

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REPUBLICAN CONTROL CREATES CALM IN KAPAN
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2. (C) Poloffs found the electoral situation in Kapan,
capital of Syunik region, to be relatively calm as a result
of the strong, centralized Republican control. We met with
the representative of the OSCE,s Kapan office, Garik
Chilingarian, who gave details on the level of Republican
control. (NOTE: Chilingarian is a field representative of
the OSCE's standing Office in Yerevan, not a member of the
ODIHR Election Observation Mission. END NOTE). Chilingarian
told us that the Kapan mayor has taken control of the town's
public space, going so far as to allocate half to his
mother-in-law in a 99-year lease. Chilingarian expressed
frustration that residents here are "drug addicts" in that
they are addicted to handouts and simply wait for elections
for further assistance. He commented that he is "100% sure"
that people are being intimidated in Kapan and that party
members are offering people money in exchange for detailed
passport lists, presumably to use for fraudulent means in the
election. Chilingarian also claimed that the Kapan mayor
ordered police at one point to take down opposition Orinats
Yerkir posters.


3. (C) A similary-negative view came from a meeting with the
OSCE Election Observation Mission,s two long-term observers
(LTOs) covering Syunik. The two highlighted problems they
witnessed in Kapan, specifically with the campaign of the
Heritage Party led by Raffi Hovhannissian. The LTOs said
people did not want to take brochures from Hovhannissian at
his rally in Kapan, noting there was an air of fear among the
crowd but that they could not put their finger on the source.
At this same rally, the LTOs observed the Kapan mayor and
his deputy watching from their Republican Party
banner-adorned balcony overlooking the square, specifically
pointing to people, calling out some by name and telling them
to leave the rally. One LTO specifically said that some
locals have told them the election process is a farce.
Poloffs held a subsequent meeting with a representative at
the Heritage Party office in Kapan who confirmed that people
are frightened to support the party publicly but are
privately sympathetic to Hovhannissian,s cause.


4. (C) Poloffs found a much different perspective from Angela
Makyan, the dynamic local coordinator for the electoral
reform NGO It,s Your Choice (IYC),who praised Kapan and
Kajaran residents for being more informed of election laws
and changes to the electoral code. She commented that the
psychology of these voters is different with this election as
she believes they truly think their vote is secret now.
However she later admitted that people in Syunik may not
answer opinion polls truthfully because they do not trust
that the opinion poll process is secret. Makyan commented
that opposition parties appear to be operating with fewer
obstacles and noted that Orinats Yerkir party representatives
freely spoke in a recent townhall meeting and distributed
campaign literature. She spoke at length about the successes
IYC has had in the region, highlighting the involvement of
disabled voters in the observation process and the enthusiasm
of many local residents for IYC,s work. She expects to have
302 IYC observers in Syunik province on Election Day.


5. (C) The Dashink Party representative in Kapan told Poloffs
that the party is operating without intimidation from
pro-government figures in the region, noting that its
campaign style is focused on door-to-door family-based
discussions rather than large rallies. He said Dashink, as a

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party appealing to war veterans, is the party of compassion
in Syunik since it understands better than Yerevan
politicians about how people here have been affected by the
Karabakh conflict. Vardan said there is more interest and
attention being paid to the party now since its inception in
2006, which he attributes to widely-distributed party
literature and the personality draw of party leader Samvel
Babayan. He told Poloffs that the party expects to have
three proxies in each precinct of Meghri, Kapan, and Kajaran.


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NERVOUS IN KAJARAN, A COMPANY TOWN
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6. (C) Kajaran, slightly further down the main road from
Kapan, is a unique town in Armenia in that its residents
enjoy full employement from the Kajaran Mining Company,
responsible for mining the country's biggest molybdenum
stores. Full employment, however, comes with its own
drawbacks. Workers see themselves as beholden to the
political whims of the plant's director, Maxim Hakobian, who
is reputed to be a close friend of President Kocharian and
whose son, Vahe, is the incumbent Republican MP from the
region, now seeking a second term. Speaking with
Kajaran-based Prosperous Armenia (PA) representatives in
Kapan, Poloffs learned that even that (pro-governmental)
party has been treated badly; PA members have been demoted or
fired from their company positions, and some PA loyalists
have been threatened with the loss of their local businesses
or even their homes. According to them, PA is pushing
forward with its campaign, going door-to-door talking to
potential voters and actually joining forces with other
opposition parties to get their message out. They have been
threatened, they said, but they "are not afraid."

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CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM IN GORIS
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7. (C) Goris, Syunik's second city, was originally poised to
host what could have been a thoroughly interesting
majoritarian race between Dashink founder and NK war hero
Samvel Babayan and Aleksandr "Sashik" Sargsian, the
millionaire brother of Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian. Once
the campaign began, however, (and just after being hauled in
for questioning by the National Security Service) Babayan
opted to expend his energy on the proportional (party list)
campaign, and withdrew from the majoritarian race. At a
roundtable discussion with nine USG election assistance
grantees, Poloffs learned that while there is some sense of
intimidation in Goris, they thought that it was not as
palpable as they had expected. They noted that Goris had
seen several rallies by various political parties over the
campaign, and they had not seen blatant instances of
intimidation or of the authorities attempting to impede them.
While some had their own ideas about why Babayan, who in
their opinion would have been a formidable contender against
Sashik, bowed out of that race, many believed that he had
been offered some kind of deal to let Sashik have it. As it
stands, Sargsian faces only a candidate from the Heritage
Party on May 12 and is highly favored to win.

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CYNICISM IN SISIAN
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8. (C) Poloffs met with representatives from Vorotanyan
Ghoghangner TV in Sisian, the northernmost town in the
region, who were rather pessimistic about this election
season. They claimed to cover the activities of any
political party that comes to town but noted they received
push-back on covering Artashes Geghamian and his National
Unity Party,s activities that day, noting NSS officers were
all around the TV,s building. Both felt that the people
definitely fear the government and were sure that the people
who vote against pro-government parties will not have their
votes counted as such. One commented that 60-70% of the
voters would easily sell their votes. The two advised
Poloffs to keep close watch during the three days leading up
to the election, on Election Day, and on the vote count that
night. They expected bribes and pressure on voters to
increase.


9. (C) On a positive note, Poloffs observed several campaign
advertisements on the television in the office, specifically
those of the Heritage, United Labor, ARF-Dashnaksutyun,
Armenian National Movement and the Republican Parties. We
also observed the USAID-funded public service announcement on
proper voting day procedures during a network commercial

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break.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) On the whole, the people of Syunik seem eager to
participate in the May 12 Parliamentary elections. The
opposition appears to be operating in a less restictive
environment than in 2003, albeit with some obstacles.
Nevertheless, it will take a lot to bring the kind of
prosperity to the Armenian panhandle envisioned by the vast
majority who have seen more socio-economic decline in the
recent past. Given that previous elections have been a
serious disappointment to many in Syunik, NGO representatives
with whom we spoke recognize that this is an overall improved
electoral environment in which it is possible to have hope
that this time the voters voices might be heard.
GODFREY