ODIHR MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000555

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM OSCE AM
SUBJECT: ODIHR MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION
ENVIRONMENT, DELEGATION CONCERNS


Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) CDA met May 2 with Ambassador Boris Frlec, the head
of OSCE/ODIHR,s Election Observation Mission (EOM) for a
discussion on the pre-election period in Armenia. Frlec
evaluated the pre-election period as broadly competitive,
despite flaws. He saw a relatively even playing field,
albeit where limits on campaign finance are unfortunately not
applied, and highlighted the lack of serious problems with
freedom of assembly or access to media as a positive
indicator.


2. (C) Frlec expressed concerned about the public release of
the clandestine recording of Artur Baghdassarian with British
DCM Hyde and about the President's subsequent labeling of
Baghdassarian in a speech April 27 as a traitor. Frlec said
that Kocharian's office has intensely scrutinized the EOM,s
Reporting. He said the EOM had recently drafted its third
interim report and sent it to Warsaw to be released on
Friday, May 4. He commented the report had been tough to
write, especially in its very careful description of the
Baghdassarian incident, but the end product reflected the
genuine consensus within the EOM cadre. He wished the GOAM
would "stop being so paranoid" and just let the process play
out. He felt that Armenia now has a robust election system
that it has put in place with foreign help.


3. (C) Frlec expressed concern about how he will manage the
OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (PA) delegation when it arrives,
as he is well aware of ongoing bureaucratic turf battles
between the PA and ODIHR. He expects that Armenia will become
a bureaucratic battleground for this intramural tussle. To
complicate matters further, he noted that the Russians are
"packing" the PA delegation with at least 15 Russian Duma
members, in addition to the naturally Russian-weighted CIS
Observer Mission. (NOTE: There will be 30 Russian STOs in
the OSCE EOM, joining the three Russian LTOs already working
in Frlec's mission. Rounding out the field of international
election monitors will be observer missions from the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and
the European Parliament. END NOTE)


4. (C) Frlec said that he is required to attempt
coordination of statements with the various other delegations
but foresaw some undesirable scenarios. The worst case would
be "Belgrade all over again" if the OSCE PA made an overly
positive public statement before the EOM released its own
statement. Second worst would involve Frlec having to water
down any criticism from the EOM statement in "coordination"
negotiations with a Russian-influenced PA statement.


5. (C) COMMENT: Frlec is an ideal team leader for this
group, and we have confidence in his ability to successfully
maneuver the politics in the run-up to Election Day.
GODFREY