BOOM! EXPLOSIONS MARK THE FIRST WEEK OF ARMENIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000443

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV AM
SUBJECT: BOOM! EXPLOSIONS MARK THE FIRST WEEK OF ARMENIA'S
PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN

REF: A) YEREVAN 356 B) YEREVAN 412 C) YEREVAN 417

YEREVAN 00000443 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Early in the morning on April 12, two bombs exploded
in close succession at Prosperous Armenia offices in
Yerevan's Avan and Kanaker neighborhoods. President
Kocharian's office quickly condemned the bombings, which
caused physical damage but no injuries, and Yerevan police
are investigating the incidents. The explosions took
observers, both within government and the NGO community, by
surprise. While it is not yet clear who was behind the
bombings, growing tension between the ruling Republican Party
and Prosperous Armenia and the need for the Republicans to
consolidate their position following the death of former
Prime Minister and Republican Party Chairman Andranik
Margarian (refs A and B),have led some to speculate that
there might be fissures within the Republican party itself
and that tension between the Republicans and Prosperous
Armenian might run deeper than we thought. END SUMMARY.

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PA OFFICES BOMBED ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF YEREVAN
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2. (SBU) Early in the morning on April 12, two bombs exploded
in close succession at Prosperous Armenia offices in
Yerevan's Avan and Kanaker neighborhoods. By midday April
12, President Kocharian's spokesman Viktor Soghomonian made
the following statement: "Strongly condemning the given
crime, we consider it an effort to destabilize the situation
and to establish an atmosphere of intolerance on the eve of
the parliamentary election. The manifestations of extremism
cannot hinder the determination to hold democratic elections
in Armenia." Ararat Mahtesian, First Deputy Minister of
Police, told us that he believed the bombs were "intended to
intimidate." He said there were no injuries and the offices
were not destroyed. The bombs did, however, shatter windows
and cause other surface damage. Local press reports show
that nearby properties at one of the locations were also
damaged and the owner of the shop containing the PA office in
Avan estimated more than USD 25,000 in damage to his
property. Mahtesian said both incidents were currently under
investigation by the Yerevan police.


3. (SBU) Head of the National Assembly Republican faction
Galust Sahakian, also reacted quickly to the explosions,
telling reporters that the incidents were "unacceptable." In
an effort to stay rumors that the Republican Party was
involved, he said, "I repeat again that the members of the
RPA have at least friendly relations with most members of
PA."

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FISTICUFFS IN EREBUNI
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4. (SBU) While it is not yet clear who was behind the
bombings, there has been growing tension between the ruling
Republican Party (RPA) and Prosperous Armenia (PA),at least
on the local level. In mid-March, local media reported on a
violent clash between RPA and PA activists in Erebuni, a
blue-collar district of Yerevan. The supporters of infamous
Erebuni Mayor Republican Mher Sedrakyan attacked the head of
the local PA chapter, Harutyun Karapoghosyan, after he
refused to stop campaigning in the area. The altercation
turned into a larger confrontation which only ended when
police intervened. Local media reported that President
Kocharian himself called an emergency meeting of the RPA and
PA heads to prevent further escalation of the dispute.

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BOWING TO PRESSURE IN ARMAVIR
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5. (SBU) Tensions between RPA and PA were also evident during
the March 25 mayoral election in Armavir. The election,
which pitted incumbent Republican Ruben Khlghatyan against
PA's Arayik Aghababyan, was marred by allegations of fraud.
Aghababyan also complained that Khlghatyan used state
administrative resources and his influence as the incumbent
to pressure voters to support him. Following very active
campaigning by both parties and unusually high turnout, 53
percent of voters supported the incumbent Republican and 43.3
percent supported PA.


YEREVAN 00000443 002.2 OF 002



6. (SBU) Aghababyan refused to concede and challenged the
results in the first instance court, but did not file a
formal complaint with the local electoral commission. He
refused to detail the alleged irregularities, telling
journalists, "We will publicize everything in court." On
April 3, Aghababyan suddenly dropped the case. PA's
spokesperson told us that this was the candidate's decision.
Local press speculated, however, that Aghababyan had been
"ordered" by PA Chairman Gagik Tsarukian to withdraw his
claim. We later learned that Aghababyan was forced to drop
the case when each of the 67 voters accused of selling their
votes appeared in court and testified that they did not.

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DEALS IN GORIS
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7. (SBU) The controversial Karabakh war general Samvel
Babayan from the Dashink Party also recently bowed out of the
majoritarian race in Goris. He had announced plans to
challenge Republican candidate Alexander Sargsian (brother of
recently-appointed Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian, head of the
Republican Party). Given its high profile, local observers
were paying particularly close attention to this race, when,
on March 27, Babayan suddenly dropped out in favor of a third
party candidate. Some local observers claimed that elections
authorities had threatened not to register Babayan as a
proportional candidate if he remained in Goris' majoritarian
race. Others believe Babayan cut a deal with the
Republicans, agreeing to leave the race if his Dashink party
was guaranteed a certain number of proportional seats in the
new Parliament.

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MISUSE OF "ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCES"
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8. (C) While Babayan did not comment on the reason for his
withdrawal, Dashink Board Member Gnel Ghelachyan said Babayan
withdrew because the Republican candidate's heavy reliance on
his "administrative resources" meant that the race would not
be fair. Ghelachyan's comments echoed those we have heard
from various parties throughout the country during our
pre-election travels. In Lori, Armavir, Shirak, Ararat and
Syunik marzes, PA representatives and others have complained
that the Republican leadership is using its influence to
pressure voters. Opposition political groups report that
local government employees, including school teachers and
hospital workers, are under pressure to vote Republican. In
Kajaran, PA representatives told us that the Republican
director of the local copper mine was threatening to fire
employees who joined PA or frequented a local coffee shop
owned by a PA supporter.

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COMMENT: REPUBLICAN FACTIONS?
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9. (C) There is no clear evidence of who was responsible for
the bombing of the PA offices. There has been some
speculation, however, about a possible Republican Party
connection. When former Prime Minister and head of the
Republican Party Andranik Margarian died unexpectedly on
March 25, the Republican Party lost a strong leader who
helped bridge the gap between the well-established old guard
and party newcomers. The new Prime Minister and Republican
Party head (former Defense Minister) Serzh Sargsian may be
having a more difficult time bringing these two groups
together. Conspiracy theories abound in Armenia, and range
from the plausible (Republican supporters out of control) to
the ridiculous (opposition supporters trying to set off a row
between the Republicans and PA). All of Armenia's senior
leaders know how damaging violence could be to the political
process here.
GODFREY