ARMENIA: ELECTION UPDATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000417

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: ELECTION UPDATE

REF: A. YEREVAN 260

B. YEREVAN 396

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Classified By: CDA A.F.Godfrey for reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Armenia's 35-day long "official" campaign
period for the May 12 parliamentary election kicks off on
April 8, and so far, the government has kept its commitments
to hold better elections. ODIHR observers are in place and
report that the legal preconditions for fair elections have
been met. All parties which sought registration will be able
to compete and will receive their allotment of state-provided
broadcast time on TV and radio. It is far too soon to judge
whether the authorities have enough political will to keep to
this standard. End Summary.


2. (C) ALL PARTIES REGISTERED. Armenia's Central Election
Commission (CEC) approved the applications for registration
of all parties which applied. Twenty-four parties and one
political alliance will contest the May 12 election for
ninety party-list seats in Armenia's National Assembly. The
CEC took its decisions several days before the April 7
deadline in order to give parties time to respond to queries
about documentation. The ninety party-list seats will be
awarded proportionally to all parties which receive more than
five percent of votes cast. The one electoral bloc
registered, named "impeachment," will have to pass a seven
percent threshold, unlikely as few observers recognize any of
the names of its leaders.


3. (C) SINGLE-MANDATE DISTRICTS. Registration is complete
also for candidates for seats to be filled by majoritarian
races. 133 candidates were registered, but they were not
spread evenly among the 41 districts. Several seats will be
contested by as many as seven candidates, but seven
candidates will run unopposed. Three of these candidates are
from the Republican Party and two are from the Prosperous
Armenia Party; unsurprisingly, all five of these are the
leading employers in their districts. The two other
candidates running unopposed are notorious "biznessmen" with
nicknames suggesting their organized crime ties. (Their
monikers are "Lady Hakob" and "Le Fix Samo" (which could
loosely be translated as "Sammy the Bra.") Only seven
applicants to compete in single-mandate districts were
refused registration; local experts agree that none were
refused for political reasons (one is wanted by the police
for plotting the murder of both President Kocharian and
Acting PM Sargsian).


4. (C) "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN BEGINS APRIL 8. The 35-day
sprint for elections begins on Armenian Easter Sunday.
Government-funded election ads will be aired according to a
rota developed by the CEC and we expect that Armenia's
airwaves will be increasingly saturated with paid political
ads as Election Day approaches. Armenia has more than 40 TV
stations, most with only regional reach, and for those which
are not affiliated with one of the parties, this
hotly-contested campaign should have presented a potential
bonanza. But for a variety of reasons (ref a) only eight
stations decided to air political ads. The CEC told us that
only those stations which advertised the prices for campaign
spots in advance will be allowed to air ads.


5. (SBU) OSCE INTERIM REPORT. Although it was released in
Vienna on April 2, the first ODIHR long-term observer mission
interim report was distributed in Yerevan on April 5. The
ODIHR report describes in general terms the political
context, acknowledges improvements in Armenia's electoral
code, while stating that good elections are dependent on
political will, and lays out areas of concern (media access,
voting outside of Armenia, possible restrictions on sites for
public assembly).


6. (C) CIS OBSERVERS, HO! Commonwealth of Independent
States Secretary General Vladimir Rushailo was in Yerevan on
April 5 and met with President Kocharian, Acting PM Sargsian,
the CEC, FM Oskanian and others. He announced that the CIS
would field more than 150 observers on Election Day and would
soon open one office in Yerevan and four more in the regions
staffed by 29 long-term monitors, the same number of
observers the ODIHR group has deployed. (Coincidence? We
think not.)


7. (U) RUSSIAN OBSERVERS, TOO. In addition to whatever
quota Russia might fill in the CIS observer contingent,
Russian FM Lavrov, in Yerevan on April 4-5, pledged that
Russia would fill completely the 30-member quota allotted to
member states in the OSCE short-term observer team.


8. (S) REPUBLICANS TO FIGHT FOR CLEAN ELECTIONS? The Ruling
Republican Party announced April 4 that it would form a team

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to ensure that the upcoming election is free and fair and
nominated Justice Minister David Harutyunian to lead the
effort. Harutyunian, a close contact of the Mission and with
a reputation as a progressive, joined the Republican Party
only recently. CDA approached Harutyunian on the margins of
an event held on April 5 to express our serious concern over
the use of the security services to intimidate a journalist
(ref b). Harutyunian was visibly shocked by the news, called
the act "incredibly stupid" and vowed to investigate and to
try to prevent further such actions.


9. (C) COMMENT. With the one glaring exception noted
above, Armenia is off to a creditable start to the extended
home stretch of the political race. With all parties
registered and no political refusals of other candidates, the
race is taking place in a predictable fashion. The death of
PM Markarian was a blow to the Republicans, but likely will
not affect the outcome of elections. Ongoing programs of the
Mission's Democracy Promotion Strategy are generally meeting
with cooperation from the government. We expect to get an
objective idea of how candidates are faring on April 17, when
the results of a USAID-sponsored IRI poll are presented to
the Mission.
GODFREY