CABINET DISSOLVED WITH PM MARGARIAN'S DEATH,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000356

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV AM
SUBJECT: CABINET DISSOLVED WITH PM MARGARIAN'S DEATH,
CARETAKER TO BE APPOINTED

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Classified By: Steve Banks, Pol/Econ chief, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The prime minister's sudden death March 25
automatically dissolved the cabinet. Sources tell us that
President Kocharian will appoint an acting PM--possibly Serzh
Sargsian--to lead a caretaker government. The constitutional
timeframe for replacing a deceased prime minister in this
case intersects with the election calendar. The effect is
that there will now be simply a caretaker government,
comprised of all the same ministers but lacking full cabinet
authority, from now until a new government is formed after
the may 12 election. The GOAM has begun to inquire about
U.S. plans for a funeral delegation. A delegation from the
State Department would make a strong local impression. Local
commentators can probably be counted upon to draw comparisons
with U.S. participation Georgian PM Zurab Zhvania's funeral
in 2004.END SUMMARY


2. (C) PM MARGARIAN DIES: Prime Minister Andranik Margarian
died March 25, at the age of 55, of an apparent heart attack
at approximately 1:30 pm local time. Margarian, a heavy
smoker, had a history of heart disease, for which he had
sought medical treatment in France in 2006. There has been
no speculation of anything but a natural death. The event
caught the government unprepared; it was hours before
anything beyond a bare announcement of the PM's death
appeared on local media. Our first indication came from
NDI's chief of party, who coincidentally was in the middle of
an offsite training seminar for some 150 ruling Republican
Party activists when word reached the conference center,
sending the party officials scrambling for the cars to race
back to Yerevan for deliberations. The event triggered
emergency sessions of the National Security Council, the
(technically dissolved) cabinet, and the Republican Party
Board.


3. (C) FUNERAL ARRANGEMENTS: The Government has announced
that a public wake will be held at the Opera House from 12:00
until 2:00 pm Wednesday, March 28, and the funeral cortege
will depart from the Opera House to the cemetery at 3:00 pm
for a graveside service. The diplomatic corps and foreign
delegations will be invited to both events. The family is
having a smaller ceremony at the late PM's home on Tuesday
evening, March 27, at 6:00 pm. The embassy has arranged for
flowers and a wreath to be delivered to the home and to the
Opera House, respectively, conforming to local expectations.


4. (C) NEXT STEPS: The Armenian constitution provides that
the Council of Ministers (cabinet) is automatically dissolved
upon the death or incapacity of the sitting prime minister.
According the consitution, the president has up to ten days
to appoint a new prime minister, who then has 20 days to form
a new cabinet. The new cabinet then has 20 days to enact a
program for the new government, and the National Assembly has
five days to approve the new program. Those various time
periods, added together, would take us past the May 12
election day, making the whole effort somewhat pointless.


5. (C) BUYING TIME: The president has two basic choices:
either A) to act as quickly as possible to push through all
the steps of appointing a new, fully-empowered PM and cabinet
with a government mandate and parliamentary approval, or B)
instead to stretch the whole process out as long as possible,
to avoid going through the motions of forming a government
that could only run for a few weeks before the election.
Justice Minister Harutunian, who was present at the cabinet
meeting, told CDA on March 26 it would be option "B" and not
to expect any changes in the cabinet. Harutunian and the
president's economic adviser each told us Kocharian will wait
until the tenth day to appoint an acting prime minister.
Meanwhile, all the existing ministers will be named to
continue acting in their previous capacities, with the
understanding that they are effectively coasting until
Election Day. Harutunyan told us that, though they are still
studying the legal requirements, it may be necessary for the
caretaker prime minister to resign and then be re-appointed,
in order to reset the clock and avoid the necessity of
developing a new government program before Election Day.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party has already announced that
Serzh Sargsian has taken over Margarian's former position as
party chairman (moving up one spot from Sargsian's previous
position as chair of the party board).


6. (C) IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNANCE: Without having
completed all the constitutionally-required steps of forming
a new government, with parliamentary approval, according to
Harutunian, the caretaker cabinet lacks its legal
decision-making authority to enact decisions as the Council
of Ministers, for example to pass certain types of decree or

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to refer proposed legislation to the parliament. Meetings of
the caretaker cabinet can only be convened by the president,
lacking a permanent prime minister. That said, with so few
weeks to go before Election Day, and the formal start of the
campaign period begins April 8, most business that needed to
be done before the election has already been dealt with.
From our own parochial perspective, it is convenient that
Prime Minister Margarian had already signed on Friday, in one
of his last official acts, documents necessary for
disbursement of the next tranche of MCC funds this quarter.

7. (C) WHO'S IT GOING TO BE?: While Justice Minister
Harutunyan refused to reveal whom the president had in mind
to appoint as interim prime minister, presidential economic
adviser Vahram Nercissiantz and local media speculation
suggest it will be current Defense Minister Serzh Sargsian.
The press reports that President Kocharian agreed that the PM
slot should stay with Margarian's Republican Party. Sargsian
may choose to forego the honor so that he can focus on the
campaign. In that case, Minister for Territorial
Administration Abrahamian--who usually filled in for
Margarian during the former PM's travel--would probably get
the nod.
GODFREY