ARMENIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLATE NOW SET

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SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLATE NOW SET


YEREVAN 00001413 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) December 6 was the nomination deadline for Armenian
presidential candidates. Nine persons have been nominated to
participate in the February 19, 2008 election. In addition to Prime
Minister Serzh Sargsian and ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian, the
widely acknowledged front-runners, there are several candidates
whose nominations have raised eyebrows. Below is a full list, in
roughly descending order of seriousness/relevance:

THE FRONT-RUNNERS
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2. (SBU) Currently expected to be the last two standing for the
run-off election round: PM Serzh Sargsian and ex-President Levon
Ter-Petrossian (LTP).

-- Serzh Sargsian: nominated by the ruling Republican party. As
Prime Minister and acknowledged front-runner in the race, Sargsian
also enjoys the support of the Republican Party's ruling coalition
partner, Prosperous Armenia, as well as a number of marginal
parties.

-- Levon Ter-Petrossian: self-nominated. Armenia's first president
following independence in 1991, Ter-Petrosyan enjoys the support of
the Armenian National Movement, the strident opposition Republic
Party, the People's Party of Armenia and a number of small
opposition parties and other supporters. LTP seems the strongest
opposition candidate, but ranks far behind Sargsian in opinion
polls.

THE DEAL-MAKERS
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3. (SBU) The following candidates almost certainly will not win the
presidency, but each commands sufficient following to be a player in
political deal-making. Probably at least one, and more likely at
least two, of these candidates would have to stay in the race
through February 19, in order to force a run-off election, which the
PM would probably prefer to avoid. (NOTE: The third figure we
might otherwise place in this category, former AmCit Raffi
Hovhanissian, is ineligible to run, lacking ten years of Armenian
citizenship. His role in the upcoming race remains unclear. END
NOTE)

-- Artur Baghdassarian: the former Speaker of the National Assembly
(NA) was nominated by his Rule of Law party, the senior (by one
seat) opposition party inside the NA. A key question is whether
Baghdassarian would realize his best possible deal before or after
the first-round election.

-- Vahan Hovhannisian: the senior Armenian Revolutionary Federation
("Dashnaksutyun") official in government, Hovhannisian is one of two
deputy speakers of the NA. The ARF is probably good for about eight
to fifteen percent of the vote, as usual.

YESTERDAY'S NEWS
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4. (SBU) The following two are well-known political figures, whose
best political days seem to be behind them.

-- Artashes Geghamian: the former (Soviet era) Yerevan mayor was
nominated by his National Unity Party (also sometimes translated as
National Accord). Geghamian's party was ignominiously thrashed
during the May 2007 parliament election, demonstrating that his
traditional popularity with pensioners has eroded considerably.
Geghamian's genuine political independence and opposition
credibility have been widely questioned.

-- Vazgen Manukian: nominated by his National Democratic Union
party, Manukian's service under LTP, first as prime minister and
later defense minister (for at least five minutes each),as well as
his experience having the 1996 presidential election stolen from him
by LTP, left him with an inflated sense of his rightful place in the
Armenian political firmament. Armenian voters have long since tired
of him. Some analysts had hypothesized he could be significant if
he were to support LTP, as this would signify a kind of absolution
for LTP's past sins. Manukian seems both disinterested in forgiving
LTP, and doggedly determined to run.

-- Tigran Karapetyan: nominated by the party he leads, the
Democratic party. He owns the generally pro-governmental ALM TV,
the existence of which may be about the only reason the
idiosyncratic politician is a household name. He is quirkily famous
for inviting village-dwellers to sing on his TV network, which has
garnered him a certain following among the rural poor.

WHO ARE YOU, AGAIN?
--------------

YEREVAN 00001413 002.2 OF 002




5. (SBU) The truly obscure:

-- Aram Harutyunyan: nominated by his obscure National Accord Party
(not to be confused with Geghamian's similarly-named party),which
appears only during presidential elections. In 2003, he collected a
whopping 1,272 votes.

-- Arman Melikyan: self-nominated. He served as a former adviser
to the Nagorno-Karabakh "President" Bako Sahakyan, and once as
"Foreign Minister" of Nagorno-Karabakh. Perhaps the greatest
surprise of the season (besides the re-emergence of ex-President
Levon Ter-Petrosyan),Melikyan has never before participated in
Armenian politics.


6. (SBU) Armenia's ex-boxing champion Israel Hakobkokhyan, whose
farcical public appeal to President Kocharian (the "King of All
Armenians") for financial support had attracted wry media attention,
dropped out of the race, citing his inability to raise the eight
million AMD (approximately USD 25,000) registration fee required of
presidential candidates. Armenian oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, head of
the Properous Armenia party and confidant of President Kocharyan,
expressed willingness to give Hakobkokhyan the money. The ex-champ
refused the offer, however, saying his true ambition all along had
been to raise the money from the Armenian people by pawning his
boxing medals.