MIXED, LARGELY SANGUINE REACTIONS TO ARMENIA'S ELECTORAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 YEREVAN 001384

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: MIXED, LARGELY SANGUINE REACTIONS TO ARMENIA'S ELECTORAL
CODE CHANGES


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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) With the presidential election set for February, parliament
swiftly enacted electoral code changes that took effect November 20.
Over the course of two day-long readings, the parliament amended
almost one third of the articles of Armenia's electoral code. IFES
and other election monitoring bodies told Emboffs that the
amendments contain both positive and disconcerting elements. As
IFES and local observer groups had advocated, the parliament
eliminated a proposed amendment that would have placed limitations
on international and domestic election observation missions.
Ex-president and now current presidential contender Levon
Ter-Petrossian saw his recent vocal bid to include two anti-vote
fraud amendments testily rejected by the head of the Central
Electoral Commission. End summary.

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MAJOR CHANGES TO ELECTORAL CODE
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2. (U) Major changes to the electoral code include abolishing of
presidential nominations by multi-party blocs or by civic
initiative (signature collection); temporarily allowing voters to
vote in the area where they physically reside (instead of only at
their officially registered address); stamping of voters' passports;
changing polling stations' layout for greater voter privacy; and
requiring only one interim financial report by candidates 10 days
after the beginning of the electoral campaign (two reports had been
proposed in the first reading). The parliament eliminated a
proposed amendment from the first reading that would have prevented
Armenian citizens from registering as foreign observers, and
foreigners from registering as local observers.

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1/3 OF ELECTORAL CODE AMENDED IN ONLY TWO READINGS
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3. (U) On November 5 the Armenian parliament passed in its first
reading legislation to amend 47 of the 141 articles making up the
electoral code. The ruling Republican Party of Armenia, and its
coalition partner, Prosperous Armenia, drafted the amendments, aided
by input from international organizations (the USAID-funded IFES
project on electoral assistance, the Organization of Security and
Cooperation in Europe, and ABA/CEELI) as well as the country's
Central Electoral Commission (CEC) and local NGOs such as "It's Your
Choice." In its second and final reading on November 16, parliament
adopted (by the tally of 86 yes, 0 no, and 11 abstentions) 45
amendments to the code, which President Kocharian signed into law on
November 20.


4. (SBU) The content of the amendments had been the source of months
of speculation, dating back to the May 2007 parliamentary elections.
The OSCE stated that while those elections "demonstrated
improvement" over previous polls and "generally met international
standards," significant shortcomings still existed, notably in
campaign regulation and performance of election commissions during
vote counts. The OSCE also noted as problems the blurring of the
ruling party with the government; the elections complaints and
appeals process (due to inconsistencies in Armenia's legal
framework); and the lack of sanctions for election violations.
According to Tigran Torosian, speaker of the parliament, the aim of
the newly enacted amendments is to eliminate shortcomings
encountered during the May parliamentary elections.

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MIXED THOUGH LARGELY SANGUINE REACTIONS TO AMENDMENTS
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5. (SBU) Most of the opposition's attention on the changes has been
focused on the amendment that abolishes the nomination of
presidential candidates by multi-party blocs or civic initiative
(signature collection). From now on, only political parties or
candidates themselves can nominate a candidate, while party blocs or
unregistered coalitions cannot. (Comment: The point here is that
no more than one party name can appear next to each candidate's name
on the ballot paper whereas a candidate who had successfully rallied
a broad opposition coalition to support him would prefer to be
listed as the chosen nominee of all of these opposition parties,
with each party name enumerated on the ballots. This amounts to a
small blow against opposition unity. End comment.)


6. (U) Others expressed concerns about the proposal to double the
election registration deposit by a presidential candidate from 5

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million drams (approximately USD 15,600) to 10 million, and raise
the limit of maximum election spending by a candidate from 70
million drams (USD 220,000) to 140 million. While the government
would return the election deposit to candidates who receive over
five percent of the vote, critics protested the financial impediment
to poorly-funded candidates. In the end, the parliament lowered the
deposit amount to 8 million drams (approximately USD 25,000) and
kept the maximum spending limit by presidential candidates to 70
million drams.

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IFES, OTHERS SEES PROS, CONS IN AMENDMENTS
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7. (SBU) IFES, a USAID grantee that provides technical assistance on
election processes, has worked closely with the authorities on
reforming the electoral code, and had proposed 17 short-term
changes, as well as a mix of medium and long-term changes for after
the election. Its country director, Chedomir Flego, told poloff
November 8 that he was pleased to see ten of IFES' proposed
amendments in the first reading, but was caught off guard by the
total number of tabled amendments. Flego cautioned that some of
these changes warranted a serious discussion that the short time
frame before the election did not permit. He also expressed concern
over Armenian authorities' tendency before elections to "bulldoze"
controversial changes into law.


8. (SBU) IFES characterized the following changes to the electoral
code as disconcerting or positive, and flagged issues that should
have been addressed but were not (see paragraph 9 for a more
detailed discussion of these points):

A) Disconcerting:

- Continued functioning of electoral commissions when some members
terminate their participation early (seen as anti-opposition);

- Stamping of ballot envelope and voter's passport by polling
officer responsible for the ballot box.

B) Positive/benign:

- A temporary measure allowing voter registration at physical place
of habitation instead of at legally registered residence (IFES had
wanted to see this made permanent);

- Removing the initially proposed amendment that would have
prevented Armenian citizens from registering as foreign observers,
and foreign citizens from registering as local observers;

- A measure that allows the Central Election Commission (CEC) to
receive from the appropriate government agency, at ten and three
days prior to an election, an updated number of voters per electoral
district and precinct (this will facilitate a more accurate
allotment of ballot papers and voting envelopes provided to Precinct
Electoral Commissions);

- CEC will now be able to regulate paid political advertising aired
on public television and radio. Before, CEC could only regulate
free political advertising aired on public radio and television (CEC
will be able to limit any one candidate seeking to purchase
disproportionate airtime);

- Several campaign finance amendments: a) one required an interim
financial report ten days after the beginning of the electoral
campaign that candidates themselves must now submit in addition to
parties and party alliances (IFES had pushed for two interim reports
at 15 and 5 days before the election, and had wished they contained
more detailed reporting than the amendment calls for); b) three days
provided for a CEC-appointed Audit Service to check candidates'
campaign finances before forwarding them to the CEC for discussion;

- Discontinuing the counting of ballot envelopes.

C) Amendments/issues that IFES thought should have been included but
were omitted or removed after the readings:

- Reporting of third party financial contributions to campaigns;

- Increasing a) the audit report period, i.e., the time period for
checking declarations of candidates' campaign finances and b) the
time of the Audit Service's operational authority, from 20 and 45
days following the announcement of election results, to 45 and 60
days respectively;


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- Definition of campaign finance;

- Addressing the lack of campaign finance sanctions;

- Addressing the lack of consistency between the Electoral Code and
other Armenian legal statutes.


9. (SBU) A more thorough analysis of IFES's views on certain points
follows.

A) Disconcerting:

- Stamping voters' passports before they are allowed to deposit
their ballot envelopes in the ballot box: This measure is in one
sense welcome as an attempt to deter multiple voting by an
individual voter, however the measure has its critics. The Council
of Europe's Venice Commission opposes stamping of
passports/identification documents that disclose whether citizens
vote. For instance, citizens may (theoretically) subsequently be
discriminated against when receiving social benefits depending on
whether or not they voted. (Comment: According to IFES, the
Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties were initially against the
amendment, but withdrew their objection to placate the Dashnak
party, their coalition partner. End comment.) Also, on technical
grounds, it would have made more sense if voters were
checked/stamped by the registering polling officer prior to the
issuance of the ballot. Opposition parties (most notably former
President Ter-Petrossian) had called for finger-inking; though IFES
opposes finger-inking as unreliable and creating a false sense of
security, since chemicals are readily available that can instantly
remove finger ink.

- Electoral Commission Members Early Termination: Amendment could
be used against commission members appointed by opposition parties.
It allows the election commissions to continue their work until the
number of commission members drops to five in case of early
termination of other commission members. There is a fear that this
amendment might be misused by ruling parties to dominate elections
commission work during elections if they somehow get rid of
commission members appointed by opposition parties (through
political pressure or bribes). (Comment: There is some reasoning
behind the provision, however, given the opposition's past history
of boycotting election commissions' work, although this did not
happen in May 2007. End Comment.)

B) Positive/benign:

- Place of voter registration: This was a potential cause of fraud
in past elections. The difficulty of changing one's permanent
address registration (or "propiska," which is a Soviet-legacy
registration practice),as well as the high number of registered
voters who have emigrated to Russia has meant that the voters' lists
contained perhaps 300,000 voters who could be counted on not to show
up on Election Day. This amendment would at least fix the problem
for Armenians still residing in the country (most often those who
have moved to Yerevan from outlying districts),allowing people to
temporarily remove themselves from the voting list of their
permanently registered address so they can vote in the communities
where they actually reside. IFES says the only shortfall is that it
is a temporary provision, and that it should be made permanent.
Also, there is no permanent provision ensuring that the temporary
removal of names from voting lists, and additions to those that are
gaining new voters, would be made public. (Note: Republican Party
board member Samvel Nikoyan, a key proponent of the amendments, has
publicly stated that the amended voting lists would be made public.
End note.)

- Discontinuing the counting of ballot envelopes: Envelope counting
had been a burdensome and time-consuming requirement for fatigued
poll workers to complete after close of polls. IFES said this
practice did not make sense, that counting ballots was more
important. In the past, electoral commissions could disqualify a
ballot if the envelope was damaged (even if the ballot's integrity
remained).

- New restriction on observers was deleted after the first reading:
The CEC had apparently copied verbatim an OSCE recommendation -
contained in the OSCE/OHDIR Election Observation Mission Report on
Armenia's May 2007 parliamentary elections - that excludes local
staff of international organizations from observation. According to
this draft amendment, a local staff person could not be accredited
as an international observer, nor could he apply to be a local
observer under that same organization, because the organization for
which s/he works is registered as an international organization in
Armenia. Flego was surprised and chagrined this restriction showed

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up in an OSCE document. He felt the restriction's intent was to
limit observation and control the composition of the observer groups
so critics could be preemptively weeded out. Flego said he
personally pleaded with Republican Party board member Samvel Nikoyan
and parliament's State and Legal Affairs Committee Chairman David
Harutyunyan for this provision to be dropped. He said Nikoyan had
been very encouraging about getting this provision deleted, which
was borne out in the second reading when the provision was removed
altogether. This issue was also a particular concern for the
domestic observer group "It's Your Choice," a USAID grantee which
utilized Diasporan Armenians as observers. (Comment: We were less
exercised than IFES or IYC about the significance of this point, in
the great scheme of Armenian democracy, but it is nice that IFES
chalked up a win. End comment.)

- Campaign finance amendments: Candidates will now have to furnish
one interim financial report on their campaign expenditures ten days
after the election campaign begins. Previously, only political
parties or political blocs had to submit the reports. Also, IFES
unsuccessfully pushed to get more time after the elections (45 days
instead of 20) for the Audit Service, which is appointed by the CEC
for the elections, to assess candidates' financial campaign
documents, and 60 days (vice 45) to exercise its oversight
authority. Flego said requirements for even more detailed
expenditure reporting are still missing, however.

- Nominations for presidential election changed from civic
initiative to self-nomination (party nomination retained): IFES
says this measure will actually allow more individuals to run for
president, and that nominees will still be able (after nominating
themselves) to refer to the political bloc that supports them.

- Voter lists : They are in much better shape since the police took
over their administration in 2005. IFES has worked with the
receptive deputy chief of police to eliminate duplicate names and
the names of deceased to avoid voting fraud. Previously, local
communities prepared voter lists, which resulted in multiple
registrations and sporadic updating, as well as the potential for
deliberate administrative chicanery at the municipal level. Now
that the system is centralized, with better links between the
relevant authorities and databases, there has been greater and more
regular information exchanged. A major issue remains, however, in
access to the list for the public and political parties. Flego said
acquiring the lists is still difficult -- they are posted only on
the web twice a year, and public oversight is the loser.

C) Amendments/issues that should have been included:

- Third party reporting of financial contributions to campaigns:
IFES says there is no definition of third parties in Armenian law as
relates to elections, thus the government cannot begin to regulate
this issue. This is a problem, because powerful businessmen and
oligarchs can contribute significant resources to campaigns without
any public oversight. (Comment: We differed with IFES on whether
it was ever realistic to address such a complex and far-reaching
issue as campaign finance reform during this short season between
the parliamentary and presidential elections. These issues can be
taken up as longer-term reforms after February. End comment.)

- Definition of campaign finance: There as yet exists no clear
definition of what constitutes legal/illegal campaign finance. This
situation fosters a system of abuse and corruption that tarnishes
the legitimacy of elections.

- Addressing the lack of campaign finance sanctions: Currently
there are no clearly defined sanctions for candidates or parties
that violate election rules. This environment results in political
campaigns that act with impunity.

- Addressing the lack of consistency between the Electoral Code and
other Armenian legal statutes: There are no clear guidelines on
which legal entity has jurisdiction on election-related crimes.
With a criminal code, an electoral code and a code on administrative
violations, the legal framework does not offer quick, efficient
recourse for investigating and adjudicating violations. IFES says
that after the May parliamentary elections political parties went to
the wrong courts to pursue their complaints, or didn't exhaust all
of the legal rights available to them.

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OSCE AND "IT'S YOUR CHOICE" ON THE CHANGES
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10. (SBU) Emboffs spoke with Harutyun Hambardzumyan, the director of
"It's Your Choice," a USG grantee local NGO that has also worked on

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the electoral code reforms. Hambardzumyan said on November 21 that
he saw both good as well as "ineffectual" amendments in the adopted
changes. He said some new amendments simply removed what had been
introduced in January 2007, (in the run-up to the May parliamentary
elections). He also took offense to the parliament's swift
introduction and passage of the amendments without first having a
public debate on them. That said, he found the passport stamp a
positive anti-fraud measure to deter multiple voting by individuals.
He said the introduction of this into the Armenian military last
May prevented soldiers from voting multiple times, as he alleged
they did in the past.


11. (SBU) He also was upbeat about the amendment that moves the
voting booth at polling places so voters' backs will be toward a
wall instead of toward polling personnel and other people in
attendance. This, he said, will give voters much more privacy and
help protect the integrity of the vote by orienting the voting booth
partition to obstruct unwanted observation. He also saluted the
amendment that specifies simplified procedures for vote count and
protocol tabulations that he thinks will deter unlawful vote
tabulations. Polfsn also spoke with Ruzanna Baghdasaryan, the OSCE
officer in Yerevan in charge of elections, who assessed the changes
as being positive overall. She admitted, however, that "some
things" are still not completely solved. She disagreed with
Hambardzumyan on the merits of passport stamping, calling it
useless, and a tactic to throw "dust in the eyes" of the opposition.
She said corrupt polling place officials could get around this by
simply not stamping the passport (thereby allowing the person to
vote again),or would conveniently not see the stamp of someone who
had already voted (though of course this latter scenario would leave
passports double-stamped, a trail of evidence that might leave the
bearer uncomfortable).

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PUBLIC SPAT BETWEEN LTP AND CEC HEAD
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12. (SBU) While most opposition parties have spoken out against the
elimination of presidential nomination by political blocs,
ex-President and current presidential candidate Levon Ter-Petrossian
(LTP) has focused his attention on adopting two key anti-fraud
measures: the printing of ballots abroad, and inking voters'
fingers after voting. In the second political rally LTP held on
November 16, he claimed that the May parliamentary elections were
the "most disgraceful in Armenia's history" because of the
"ingenuity" he claims the authorities used to falsify the vote. LTP
also declared that Western-led monitoring of the presidential vote
will be "meaningless" if the National Assembly did not pass his
proposed amendments. LTP shared these concerns with six European
Ambassadors and Peter Semneby, the EU's special representative to
the South Caucasus, at a lunch the ambassadors hosted for LTP on
November 20.


13. (SBU) LTP's anti-fraud proposals elicited a sharp retort from
Garegin Azarian, chairman of the Central Election Commission, who
alleged that the ex-president himself had rigged elections while in
power. Azarian stated that LTP "had better address his suggestions
to election falsifiers in his entourage." Azarian's remarks
elicited a stern rebuke from another political figure, the leader of
the small opposition party with which Azarian was affiliated until

2002. RFE/RL quoted Petros Makeyan, leader of the pro-LTP Democratic
Fatherland Party, as saying Azarian, who headed a precinct election
commission in Yerevan during parliamentary and presidential
elections held in 1995 and 1996, had never - at the time Azarian was
directly involved - alleged vote rigging during Ter-Petrossian's
rule. Azarian also allegedly told Makeyan in 1998 that Robert
Kocharian's election as president was fraudulent. According to
Makeyan, Azarian "was the one who showed how ballots were stuffed in
Robert Kocharian's favor." A CEC spokeswoman responded to Makeyan's
charges by saying Azarian would comment on them in the future.

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COMMENT
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14. (SBU) As expected, changes to Armenia's electoral code three
months before a contested presidential election have resulted in
minor, tit-for-tat exchanges between the ruling parties that
proposed them, and opposition factions that had no real say. While
room for considerable improvement remains, particularly in campaign
finance, many of the practical changes respond to deficiencies
highlighted by the parliamentary elections, and represent steps in
the right direction. We were surprised, but encouraged, that the
package moved so expediently through parliament, given the very
short time before the presidential election, the challenges of

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drafting revised implementing regulations, and training election
workers on the changes. On balance, the current package of reforms
(though less than our more absolutist friends in IFES might wish)
looks like a good thing.

PENNINGTON