TER-PETROSYAN READY TO RESIGN IN THREE YEARS IF ELECTED

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SUBJECT: TER-PETROSYAN READY TO RESIGN IN THREE YEARS IF ELECTED
PRESIDENT

YEREVAN 00001364 001.2 OF 002

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1. (SBU) Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan (LTP),who is emerging
as PM Serzh Sargsyan's primary rival for the February 2008
presidential polls, drew thousands of supporters to downtown Yerevan
November 16 for a second rally. LTP apologized to the people for
past mistakes of his former administration. He called for the
unification of the opposition around him, promising in that case to
step down from the Presidency in just three years. LTP also
addressed the West to press the authorities to take key anti-fraud
measures ahead of the upcoming elections. END SUMMARY

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THE LONG AWAITED APOLOGY
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2. (SBU) LTP in his speech offered words of apology, as both
opponents and some supporters had demanded, for the mistakes of his
earlier administration. These mainly referred to the "cold and dark
years" at the time of the energy crises in Armenia in early 90s.
Providing his explanations for the energy crises - that it was
mainly due to the N-K conflict - he apologized for the sufferings
that Armenian people had to endure in the name of N-K. Even more,
however, LTP said he was sorry for bringing upon Armenian people
"the disasters" of Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, asking the
people now to help him to get rid of them. (COMMENT: To American
ears, these apologies sound like no real apology at all. He's
"sorry" that the exigencies of Armenia's war -- not his fault, of
course, and all in the sacred Armenian cause -- created economic
hardship, and he's sorry for having appointed to cabinet jobs his
now-bitter political enemies, Kocharian and Sargsyan, who then
ousted LTP from power in 1998. However, early indications are that
at least some Armenians are taking them as actual apologies and a
sign of humility. END COMMENT)

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THREE YEARS ENOUGH TO CLEAN THE BARNS
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3. (SBU) The highlight of LTP's speech was his promise to resign in
three years if elected president and to leave the political arena
for good. According to him three years will be enough "to clean the
barns" and then allow the people to choose a new president in
absolutely free and fair elections. Nonetheless, he set a condition
for this, which is the support of other opposition forces and
candidates of his candidacy in the presidential race. He
specifically called upon Vazgen Manukyan (National Democratic
Union),Raffi Hovhannisyan (Heritage),Artur Baghdasaryan (Rule of
Law),Hrant Margarian (Dashnaktsutyun) and Artashes Geghamyan
(National Unity). Geghamyan, whose party suffered a fiasco at the
parliamentary elections, and who is widely perceived as one of the
so-called "phony" oppositionists, has already rejected the
invitation. The others have yet to respond.

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SUPPORT BEYOND ANM
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4. (SBU) While there are no reliable estimates on the size of the
rally, local observers believe the crowd was larger and more active
than at the previous rally held on October 26 (reftel). Leaders of
about a dozen other mostly small opposition parties warmed up the
crowd before LTP's speech, making statements in support of his
candidacy, as well as condemning the recent violation of human
rights and restrictions on free media. Stepan Demirchian was among
the speakers; his People's Party made a decision last week to
support LTP's candidacy. Pro-LTP oligarch Khachatur Sukiasian, who
has lately been the target of government investigations, also
addressed the crowd, calling on other businessmen to join, and
expressed his pride to be standing next to Armenia's first
president.

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KEY ANTI-FRAUD MEASURES
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5. (SBU) In his speech, Ter-Petrosian disagreed with the relatively
positive assessment of the May Parliamentary elections by the
international community, and urged the West to push the authorities
in ensuring some important anti-fraud measures. He emphasized the
necessity to print the ballots abroad to ensure that there are no
extra ballots, and inking of voters to exclude the possibility of
multiple voting.


YEREVAN 00001364 002.2 OF 002


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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) Whether he has a chance or not, over the past two months
LTP has clearly emerged as the main rival to PM Serzh Sargsyan's bid
in the presidential race. His promise to step down after three
years looks like another canny move, in LTP's so far well-played
political strategy: It's a clear carrot dangled in front of LTP's
would-be rivals in the opposition, aimed at making them see their
self-interest in jumping on board with LTP now, in hopes of becoming
the designated successor in short order. This may be particularly
tempting for Raffi Hovhanissian, who polls show is among the most
popular politicians in Armenia, but who just barely lacks the ten
years' citizenship to qualify to run for president this cycle.

PENNINGTON