Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07YAOUNDE993
2007-08-07 11:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yaounde
Cable title:  

CAMEROON ELECTIONS AREN'T OVER UNTIL THE SUPREME

Tags:  PGOV PREL KCOR EAID CM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3360
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHYD #0993/01 2191156
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071156Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8039
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000993 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR EAID CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON ELECTIONS AREN'T OVER UNTIL THE SUPREME
COURT SINGS

REF: YAOUNDE 951

Classified By: Poloff Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000993

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR EAID CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON ELECTIONS AREN'T OVER UNTIL THE SUPREME
COURT SINGS

REF: YAOUNDE 951

Classified By: Poloff Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (SBU) Summary. More than two weeks after the July 22
parliamentary and municipal polls, the official ballot count
is complete. The results will not be released, however,
until the Supreme Court has rendered decisions on 103
complaints filed by various political parties. Many
observers speculate that the final, "official" count will
reflect slightly smaller margins of victory for the ruling
CPDM party and that the Supreme Court will call for re-run
elections in a few hotly contested constituencies. These
moves will help reduce the damage done to the credibility of
Cameroon's democratic process by the government's conduct of
the July 22 elections. We believe the driving force,
however, is more likely CPDM embarrassment at overreaching
for a massive victory than a genuine upsurge of democratic
principles. In any event, the elections will continue to
represent a missed opportunity for the development of
democratic processes in Cameroon. End summary.

The Votes Are Counted
=====================


2. (U) Charged with conducting the official, final
tabulation of the election returns, the National Commission
for the General Vote Count completed its work in an all-night
session, passing the results to the Supreme Court on
Saturday, August 4. According to the Constitution, the
Supreme Court (sitting in for the Constitutional Court, which
has not yet been created) is required to announce the final
results by August 11, 20 days after the conclusion of the
elections.

But Will the Counted Votes Count?
=================================


3. (U) Before it can announce the results, however, the
Supreme Court needs to pass judgment on each of the 103
complaints filed by political parties -- mostly opposition
parties, but the CPDM also filed four complaints -- to
contest the conduct and results of the election. Speculation
in the press and among Embassy contacts suggests that the
Supreme Court will demand a re-run of the elections in a few
constituencies, likely to include Wouri (encompassing Douala,
the economic capital),Nyong and Kelle (Center Province) and
Mayo Tsanaga (Far North Province). New elections in these
three areas might result in gains for the Social Democratic
Front (SDF),the People's Union of Cameroon (UPC) and the
National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP),
respectively, and concomitant losses for the CPDM.

The Kodock Sideshow
===================


4. (C) Nyong and Kelle are traditional strongholds of the
UPC, whose leader, Augustin Kodock, joined the government
during the last elections, landing himself the powerful State
Ministry for Planning and Development. As the election
results currently stand, the UPC has no seats in Parliament,
leaving open the possibility that Kodock, who has long been a
fixture in Biya's governments for 15 years, would be left out
of the next cabinet. Kodock is reportedly indignant at the
prospect and is convinced that CPDM leaders orchestrated the
UPC's defeat without the knowledge of President Biya,
according to a July 26 conversation between Emboff and a UPC
leader. Kodock has circulated among diplomatic missions in
Yaounde a "confidential" letter he sent to President Biya in
late July, accusing Prime Minister Inoni of mismanaging
government and marginalizing Kodock's ministry.

Comment: Revisions are Welcome, but Not Sufficient
======= =========================================


5. (C) Congruent with earlier indications (reftel) that
some CPDM leaders felt the party had overplayed its hand in
claiming such an overwhelming victory in the legislative
elections, it now appears that the CPDM's dominance of the
Parliament will be trimmed by a few seats. Given the
tremendous amount of power vested in the Presidency vis-a-vis
the Supreme Court, MINADT, and other arms of government, if
the CPDM is being dealt setbacks, it is with the tacit
assent, if not on explicit orders, of senior officials in
both the Presidency and CPDM. Although these moves will
serve to deflate some criticism of the July 22 elections, the
credibility of the electoral process remains damaged. End

YAOUNDE 00000993 002 OF 002


comment.
NELSON