CAMEROON: ELECTION "TRENDS" SHOW A MASSIVE RULING

UNCLAS YAOUNDE 000929

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCOR PINR EAID CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: ELECTION "TRENDS" SHOW A MASSIVE RULING
PARTY VICTORY

REF: A. YAOUNDE 910


B. YAOUNDE 904

C. YAOUNDE 894

D. YAOUNDE 741

MARKED PARAGRAPHS ARE SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED (SBU). NOT
FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE THE USG.


1. (U) Cameroon's Minister of Territorial Administration
and Decentralization (MINATD),Hamidou Yaya Marafa, announced
unofficial "trends" for the July 22 legislative and municipal
elections the day after the voting. Marafa shared the
Government of Cameroon's (GRC) official assessment that the
elections went well and that there were no major problems to
report. Marafa admitted, however, that the distribution of
voter registration cards in urban areas caused trouble, but
claimed the problem was resolved at the last minute.
Responding to widespread complaints that the ink used to mark
voters' fingers was not permanent, Marafa downplayed the
problem, saying it was a security redundancy put in place by
MINATD and therefore not essential to a successful election.
Marafa estimated voter turnout at about 62 percent.

Massive victory for the Ruling Party
====================================


2. (U) Though announcing "unofficial trends," Marafa --
whose Ministry conducted the elections -- nonetheless
declared victory for the ruling party, the Cameroon People's
Democratic Movement (CPDM). Marafa claimed the CPDM won as
many as 152 (up from 149) of the 180 seats in the National
Assembly and most of the 360 council seats in the municipal
elections. According to these "unofficial trends," the
leading opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF),
won only 14 Assembly seats. The National Union for Democracy
and Progress (UNDP) (which had allied itself with the CPDM in
the previous Parliament, parlaying its lone seat into a
senior ministerial position) doubled its representation in
the legislature to 2. Winning its first seat in Parliament,
the small Progressive Movement (MP) party picked up one seat
in Douala. The Democratic Union of Cameroon (UDC) lost one
seat in its stronghold in the West Province, dropping from 5
to 4 seats in the next Parliament. The remaining seven seats
were not yet clear enough to call. The People's Union of
Cameroon (UPC),which had partnered with the ruling party in
the last Parliament (and been rewarded with a senior
ministerial post for UPC leader Augustin Kodock),was
apparently eliminated from the National Assembly through
hotly contested elections in the Center Province.


3. (U) According to Cameroon's electoral law, the Supreme
Court, sitting as the Constitutional Council, certifies
official election results for the legislative elections.
Municipal council electoral commissions around the country
will announce the official municipal election results.

Comment: 2004 Redux
===================


4. (SBU) The Commonwealth's assessment of the 2004
Presidential elections noted: "We were concerned that the
provisional results of the Presidential Election were
announced by the Minister of State in the Ministry of
Territorial Administration and Decentralisation Mr. Marafa
Hamidou Yaya on 14 October. The law clearly states that the
proclamation of results is the function of the Constitutional
Council. Even though the figures published by MINATD were
presented as "trends" they were in fact the results of the
election. This is highly irregular." Marafa's premature
announcement of an overwhelming CPDM victory may well, once
again, be accurate, but his disregard for good practices and
international monitor recommendations is generally indicative
of how these elections were managed -- i.e., to ensure a
victory for President Biya's party and a continuation of CPDM
dominance of Cameroonian politics. End Comment.
NELSON