CAMEROON ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTING AT FIRST BLUSH

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000910

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C, INL/C/CP AND EB
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCOR PINR EAID CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTING AT FIRST BLUSH

REF: A. YAOUNDE 904


B. YAOUNDE 902

C. YAOUNDE 894

D. YAOUNDE 741

Classified By: Acting P/E Chief Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary. Cameroon on July 22 held dual legislative
and municipal elections; initial, anecdotal reports indicate
that President Biya's ruling party will hold onto its strong
majority in the National Assembly and in municipal councils
throughout much of the country. Though it is too early to
make a definitive characterization of the elections, numerous
reports suggest they were plagued by poor preparation,
inconsistent execution, and occasions of fraud. At this time
there are no credible reports of significant violence or
massive, blatant malfeasance on the part of the Government of
Cameroon (GRC) or the ruling party, the Cameroonian People's
Democratic Movement (CPDM). Widespread allegations of fraud
and mismanagement and the GRC's poor handling of the
registration and pre-election processes combine to undercut
the legitimacy of this democratic exercise in public opinion.
But it is also possible that the final results will,
nevertheless, largely represent the will of the voting
public. End summary.


2. (C) Initial reports from the Embassy's 11 observation
teams spread across all ten provinces indicate that
Cameroon's July 22 parliamentary and municipal elections,
although peaceful, were marred by mismanagement, voter apathy
and incidents of fraud. On the other hand, most of the
polling stations observed appeared to be functioning
reasonably well, especially given the resource and capacity
constraints.


3. (U) The most oft-raised problem concerned the ink, which
is supposed to indelibly mark a voter's thumb, thereby making
it more difficult for the individual to vote again elsewhere.
Though the ink had been a problem in 2004 and the GRC had
made repeated, public and private assurances that the problem
had been resolved, it became immediately clear that the ink
provided to polling stations could be easily wiped off. In
addition, teams noted that election workers did not
understand the purpose of the ink and many decided to take
voters' thumbprints, for no discernible purpose.


4. (C) The handling of voter registration lists and voter
cards was also identified as problematic in many areas.
Specifically, there were allegations that the voter lists in
some polling stations on July 22 were not the same voter
lists that had been publicly displayed and against which
voters had checked their status. Additionally, large numbers
of voters claimed not to have received their voter cards. In
some places the polling station commissions (composed of
representatives from the GRC and the political parties
contesting the election) reached ad hoc standards for
determining what identification was needed to allow an
individual to vote. These decisions were not regularized and
were at times out of conformity with election law. Some
observer teams witnessed instances of multiple or fraudulent
voting.


5. (C) Press and anecdotal reports suggest
behind-the-scenes fraud and intimidation in some areas from
agents of the GRC and the ruling CPDM party. Although our
observation teams witnessed few of these incidents directly,
we believe they are reasonably credible and indicative of
events in contested races.


6. (U) The leading opposition party, the Social Democratic
Front (SDF),has denounced the elections as fraudulent and
promised to file lawsuits challenging the elections in court
as soon as July 23. Adamou Ndam Njoya, president of the
opposition party Cameroonian Democratic Union (UDC),told the
Voice of America he does not believe a fair outcome is
possible, given the extent of fraud involved.

Comment
=======


7. (C) While it is still too soon for a full analysis of
the elections, it is clear that fraud, intimidation and
mismanagement marred the electoral process, at least in the
court of public opinion. Much of what our teams observed was
calm, reasonably orderly voting without controversy. But the
reports of fraud we received, combined with the more
widespread allegations reported in the press, raise troubling
questions.


8. (U) We will wait to characterize the elections until
more is known about the extent to which the reports of
mismanagement and fraud are substantive enough to call into
doubt the legitimacy of the election itself. In the coming
days, we will meet with representatives from the GRC, the
National Elections Observatory (ONEL),other diplomatic and
observer missions, and political parties in an effort to draw
comprehensive conclusions as to whether or not this election
cycle represents progress for democracy in Cameroon. End
comment.
NELSON