WHILE NOT PRETTY, CAMEROON'S ELECTION PREP IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000741

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PHUM CM
SUBJECT: WHILE NOT PRETTY, CAMEROON'S ELECTION PREP IS
MOVING AHEAD


Classified By: Poloff Tad Brown for 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) With less than fifty days before voters go to the
polls on July 22, the Government of Cameroon's handling of
critical elements of the pre-election period has been marred
with procedural irregularities. Some observers are
questioning the government's commitment to democratic reform,
pointing to a series of questionable presidential decrees,
the continued use of government assets for ruling CPDM party
politicking, and flawed registration efforts (and an
incredibly complex process) fraught with hurdles for
prospective voters. Accordingly, the newly-computerized
voter roll is likely to fall short of pre-election goals,
while perhaps still representing an increase over the 2004
registration figure. The Supreme Court is currently hearing
challenges based on these shortcomings. While the elections
will be far from perfect, with cleaned and computerized voter
rolls, growing election fever and rejection of many
imcumbents in the primaries, they should represent a step
forward for Cameroon's nascent democracy. End summary.

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Registration: Falling Down Before the Start
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2. (C) The Government of Cameroon (GRC) was criticized
after the 2004 elections that brought Biya into his final --
according to the current constitution -- seven-year term, but
those elections were widely believed to represent the
electorate's preference for Biya over a large slate of
challengers. The Commonwealth, in a team headed by former
Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark, pushed aggressively
afterwards for the establishment of a new, independent
electoral body to free Cameroon from elections run by the
Interior Ministry (MINTAD). In the end, the GRC passed
legislation calling for a new agency, Elections Cameroon
(ELECAM),but not in time for the Parliamentary and municipal
elections slated for July 22. The Commonwealth perceives the
delay as GRC foot-dragging and, perhaps as a result, is
unlikely to dispatch any observers.


3. (U) A primary thrust of post-2004 criticism was the need
to clean the electoral rolls and expand the number of
registered voters; from 4.6 million in 2004, there was hope
to expand the base to perhaps seven million this year. Here,
too, the GRC's efforts have been disparaged as half-hearted
or, worse, intentionally ineffective in order to enhance
prospects for the ruling CPDM party, whose constituent base
is well established. Cameroonian law allows prospective
voters to register year-round, but many of the national
government's delegates at the local level (who carry out
registration) claimed they were awaiting instructions from
the capital before opening registration. This delay was due
in part to MINTAD efforts to complete computerization of the
existing voter rolls first, another project borne of the 2004
criticisms. Even then, an aspiring voter faced a daunting
set of obstacles, including the requirement to register in
the presence of a roving commission whose schedule was
unknown.


4. (U) Embassy employees and contacts who tried to register
in Yaounde and Douala reported persistent difficulties and
frequent instances of apparent tribal discrimination.
Reports from the hinterlands, however, where ethnic
homogeneity is the norm, were almost universally more
positive. Nonetheless, with a largely dispersed, poor,
illiterate, and generally apathetic population, even a more
ambitious and well-planned registration effort would have
faced shortcomings. Some observers claimed that the GRC made
no meaningful push to attract new registrants, although
MINTAD ran daily announcements in multiple newspapers warning
that, under Cameroonian law, registration would close once
elections were called -- an unprecedented action that
responded to demands from diplomats for a more pro-active GRC
role in promoting registration. Biya also waited until the
latest date permissible under Cameroonian law to call the
elections, thus maximizing the time for registration to
occur. Faced with calls from certain quarters (but not from
diplomats, who remained studiously silent on this question)
to extend the period of registration beyond the legally
required closing of the rolls triggered by the call of

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elections, Biya said he was legally bound to close
registration. Clearly apathy was a serious problem among
potential registrants, and indeed it is not clear that many
more would have registered if given additional time.


5. (SBU) With UNDP assistance and its own funding, MINTAD
computerized the existing voter rolls and is now in the
process of adding new registrants and scrubbing the old voter
lists for duplications, deceased voters, and fraud. At a May
31 donor meeting, an expert attached to MINTAD predicted that
roughly one in five entries in the electoral rolls would be
stricken as a duplicate entry. This leaves open the
possibility that the voter list for 2007 could even be
smaller than in 2004, a potential political embarrassment for
Biya. However, both MINTAD Minister Marafa and the Prime
Minister have told the Ambassador in confidence that they
expect the final number to be close to 5.5 million; if it
comes to pass, this would represent a modest improvement over
past elections.

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Gerrymandering After the Elections Are Called
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6. (C) In a Decree released five days after the formal
convocation of the electorate, the Presidency unilaterally
announced a restructuring of national constituencies.
Opposition parties, civil society activists and even some
CPDM officials decried the action as illegal and
transparently designed to increase the CPDM's advantage. The
Catholic Church and the League for Equality of Women and
Children (LEFE, a previous recipient of USG Democracy and
Human Rights funding) have challenged the decision in court.
In private conversations, Interior Minister Marafa told us
that the redistricting was based on the information contained
in the recently completed national census. The problem,
Marafa admitted, is that the GRC has yet to make the census
results public, leading many to speculate that the
information therein shows demographic shifts that do not
favor the CPDM or the politically dominant Beti ethnic group.
Release of the census data would presumably address these
concerns, and diplomats are pressing for this to occur.
Marafa also expressed to us his intense frustration about the
Presidency's failure to release the redistricting decree
before convoking the electorate, explaining that MINTAD had
submitted it in final in February.

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Cameroonian Law Trumped by "Administrative Tolerance"
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7. (U) Under Cameroonian law, all political parties must
submit their lists of candidates to MINTAD within two weeks
of the convocation of the electorate. The Prime Minister,
urged on by many, though not all, opposition parties, decided
to extend this deadline, saying that a number of national
holidays made it impossible for parties to comply with the
legal requirement and basing his decision -- widely perceived
to be illegal -- on what he termed "administrative
tolerance." By many accounts, it was the CPDM -- which had
yet to hold primary elections -- that was the most unprepared
to meet this deadline. This decision, too, is being
challenged in court by the Catholic Church and LEFE.

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Politicking and Primaries in the CPDM
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8. (U) Against this backdrop of elections preparation, the
CPDM has been consumed by primary elections, an unprecedented
number of which resulted in the rejection of incumbent
Members of Parliament and local officials. In submitting the
final list to MINTAD, the CPDM Central Committee, which
reviews the candidate lists, decided to overrule some of the
primary results. Although the supporters of those removed
from the list protested the decision -- in some cases
violently -- independent observers welcomed the changes,
however irregular or undemocratic, because the individuals
removed represented the seedier side of the ruling party
(including, for example, Fon Doh of Balikumbat, who who was
convicted of murder but released on "medical grounds," and
another who was arrested in 2006 while trying to flee to
Gabon with suitcases of cash). However, at least one
opposition party candidate has told us that the conduct of
the CPDM nomination process this year was markedly more

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democratic than in previous years.

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Are the Elections Dead on Arrival?
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9. (C) With the elections just six weeks away, some Western
donors already are expressing private cynicism of the GRC's
preceived weak commitment to democratic processes. For some,
the shortcomings of the registration drive alone are
sufficiently serious to make the actual conduct of the
elections almost irrelevant. The British High Commissioner,
conveying in part the frustration of the Commonwealth, has
been particularly outspoken about the inability to look
beyond the "failed registration process". Pointing to this
aspect, the British High Commissioner reportedly told Marafa:
"You can run a perfect election, administratively, and still
have a total political catastrophe." Marafa, for his part,
takes the criticism in stride and told the Ambassador he
still hopes these elections will be Cameroon's "best ever".

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Comment
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10. (C) We are watching carefully but withholding judgment
on these elections until they are over. The process has been
messy and flawed, but there is still a lot of excitement
about these elections. For example, women are seeking office
in greater numbers and we expect more and more women to cast
ballots. Undoubtedly, some problems are inevitable, but the
GRC's failure to take even the easy steps (release the
census, ease the process and extend the hours for
registration) has led many to conclude that its political
will to run truly democratic elections is lacking.
Nonetheless, we are not prepared to write off these
elections, slated to be the last before the next presidential
election in 2011. Although the GRC has gotten the process
off to a rocky start, there have been some improvements --
such as computerization and sanitation of the electoral
rolls, and unprecedented openness in the CPDM primaries.
Moreover, concerns about the GRC's orgainzation of the
elections are being handled appropriately, via cases
presented to the Supreme Court. One leading oppositing
figure confided that with repsect to several irregular
actions he supported the government's aim but disapproved of
it circumventing the prescribed process to achieve it.
Though voter participation is likely to be lower than many
hoped for, the Government's organization of the elections and
the related court challenges will contribute to Cameroon's
democratic maturation. The GRC is also somewhat comforted by
their perception in the wake of the April elections in
Nigeria that prospects are limited for heavy criticism from
groups like the Commonwealth (especially for "mere"
legislative/municipal elections that apparently will not
attract any non-resident observers). We organized a meeting
of western donors on May 31 at which it became clear that the
only foreign observers are likely to be those sent by
embassies. For our part, we are preparing to send one team
of observers to each of the ten provinces, and to coordinate
their deployment with other observing diplomatic missions.
The French are planning a similar high level of
participation, while other, smaller missions will contribute
handfuls. End comment.
MARQUARDT