CAMEROON OPPOSITION LEADER ON ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000493

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV CM KCOR PINR
SUBJECT: CAMEROON OPPOSITION LEADER ON ELECTIONS,
POSSIBILITY FOR UNREST

REF: A. YAOUNDE 333


B. YAOUNDE 445

C. YAOUNDE 441

Classified By: P/E Chief Katherine Brucker, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Bernard "Ben" Muna, head of the newly formed
opposition coalition Alliance of Progressive Forces told
Charge April 16 that he feared "generalized violence" if the
July legislative and municipal elections are fraught with
fraud. Pointing to violence that has broken out recently
among ruling party (Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement,
CPDM) supporters, Muna asked rhetorically, "if CPDM
supporters are fed up, what about everybody else?" While we
continue to believe that apathy and resignation will lead
most Cameroonians to accept whatever results the elections
produce, we are sensitive to the fact that fear of unrest is
foremost among the concerns of a growing number of political
leaders. End Summary.

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CPDM Violence, Foreshadowing More?
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2. (SBU) Ben Muna, formerly of the Social Democratic Front
and now head of the Alliance of Progressive Forces (AFP),an
opposition coalition of five parties that is "getting bigger
daily" and drawing in disgruntled members of the CPDM, called
on Charge April 16 to express his concerns about the
potential for unrest should the July legislative and
municipal elections go badly. Muna reported that the recent
internal elections within the ruling CPDM had prompted
violence ranging from fist-fights, killings and the April 6
burning of the Chief's palace in Bafia, in the Center
Province. "If CPDM supporters are fed up," Muna asked, "what
about everybody else?"


3. (C) Elaborating on why he thinks there is a risk of
violence, Muna said "the people have given President Biya
ample chances to improve the country, and he has failed." He
characterized Prime Minister Inoni's April 11 meeting with
political parties to encourage registration as too little,
too late. Voter registration (which will likely close on or
about April 21) continues to be a problem, he said, and it
seems unlikely that the Government of Cameroon (GRC) will
reach its goal of registering 7-8 million voters (some 4
million were estimated to be on the list for the 2004
election). "Massive registration" is needed to instill
confidence in the process, he said, but the numbers are
actually dropping in areas "not favorable to the CPDM," he
alleged. (Comment: While falling registration numbers could
legitimately reflect efforts to remove multiple entries and
correct other registration errors, as noted in Ref. A, years
of selective registration and disappearing voter cards will
lead Cameroonians to suspect fraud in everything that appears
to run contrary to the expected. End Comment)

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Election Timing
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4. (C) Muna said there had been "some hints" at the April 11
meeting with the Prime Minister that the GRC has not ruled
out postponing the (anticipated) July elections to allow more
time for voter registration. Still, he mused, more voters
would not be in the CPDM's interest, as they would most
likely be opposition supporters. (Comment: While we have no
way of knowing what signals were sent in the meeting with the
PM, Muna's impression runs counter to President Biya's April
9 message to the Ambassador (Ref. B) that elections would be
held in July, most likely on July 22. End Comment)

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Prospects for Fraud
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5. (SBU) Muna lamented that "massive poverty" in Cameroon,
coupled with the way elections are organized, makes poll
workers vulnerable to corruption. "With what the CPDM has
stolen," he said, "it can pay off all the people it needs
to." Polling places in rural areas are especially easy
targets, he said, as those manning the voting bureaus often
are scarcely able to provide for their own needs. For the
equivalent of a few dollars, vote-riggers can send the staff
off to lunch (which many could not afford otherwise) and use
their absence to remove ballots or stuff boxes. In some
instances, he claimed, people have showed up with fully
prepared ballot boxes and simply switched them with those at
the polling station.


6. (U) Muna said he and the AFP were urging people to
resist the temptation of abandoning the polling stations in
favor of a meal. The message: "You have only one day to go
hungry for free and fair elections in Cameroon. If you let
yourself be bought off, you and your children will be hungry
for the next five years."

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Is there any hope?
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7. (U) Muna outlined several things that would improve the
electoral process. "Massive registration" and high voter
turnout are critical, he said, if for no other reason than to
give people an informed basis for contesting the results.
Truly indelible ink is imperative to guard against multiple
voting (though in principle, the computerized voter lists
should prevent this from happening). Voter registration
lists should be posted at the polling stations well in
advance, he argued, so people can confirm their registration
and know where to collect their voter cards. As for the 2011
presidential election, Muna said the international community
would have to be "fully implicated" in the entire process
(from registration through vote counting) to give
Cameroonians any assurance of a free and fair vote.
Otherwise, he warned, "it will be a disaster with violence."

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Comment
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8. (C) Muna's comments reinforce the almost total lack of
faith Cameroonians have in the government's ability or
willingness to run credible elections. The combination of
bureaucratic ineptitude and overt meddling in the
registration process has dissuaded many from even trying, and
Cameroon's history of poor elections has people pre-disposed
to expect the worst in everything. Predictions of
election-related unrest have been made to us primarily by
Muna and his former SDF colleagues; we suspect this stems in
part from their experience in 1992 when violence broke out in
the North West province after Biya was declared the winner in
an election many believe SDF presidential candidate John Fru
Ndi had won. As noted in Ref. C, we are inclined to believe

that even disappointed Cameroonians will accept the election
results, as experience has given them little reason to hope
for -- and less reason to expect -- real change. End Comment.
NELSON