SARKOZY-BIYA SUMMIT: A FRENCH VIEW FROM CAMEROON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 001271

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV KCRO KPKO CM FR
SUBJECT: SARKOZY-BIYA SUMMIT: A FRENCH VIEW FROM CAMEROON

REF: YAOUNDE 1159

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)


1. (C) Summary. Less than one week after returning from
UNGA and a protracted stay in Geneva, President Paul Biya
left October 22 for Paris, where he will attend UNESCO's
general conference and meet on October 26 with French
President Sarkozy for the first bilateral meeting between the
two presidents. Cameroon's private press has headlined
speculation that Biya will seek Sarkozy's permission to
extend his term in office beyond the currently
constitutionally mandated 2011. French Charge d'Affaires
Philippe Truquet expects Sarkozy will highlight the need for
Biya to jump-start the local economy and to play a more
active regional peacekeeping role. Truquet personally
questioned whether France's large aid program in Cameroon
(its largest in the world) was in line with French strategic
interests, suggesting that there may be a realignment,
especially if Biya does not improve his economy in the next
three years. End summary.

France's Message for Biya
--------------


2. (C) Truquet told Pol/Chief on October 23 that President
Sarkozy's meeting with Biya is a first "get to know you"
session; Truquet stressed it was not a state visit and that
Biya's main purpose in Paris was to attend the UNESCO
meeting. Sarkozy will likely stress the need for Cameroon to
spur investment and economic growth, he thought, especially
since HIPC completion and the recent parliamentary elections
(with the presidential election not due until 2011) present a
window of opportunity to boost economic development.


3. (C) According to Truquet, Sarkozy's second message will
be that Cameroon needs to increase its role in regional peace
building and African peacekeeping. The peaceful conclusion
of the Bakassi dispute with Nigeria should also present a
window of opportunity for Cameroon's security forces to play
a more active international role, Truquet said. When asked
whether Sarkozy would raise the need for more political
openness and democracy, Truquet responded that democracy in
Africa was a long process and that Cameroon was making slow
steps in the right direction. Especially since the next
election is four years away, Truquet did not expect Sarkozy
to focus on Cameroon's internal politics in this week's
meeting. However, he opined that the new French President is
unpredictable and has been known to take a tough stance with
other heads of state.

Biya's Goals with Sarkozy
--------------


4. (C) Truquet thought Biya's main message to Sarkozy will
be "don't abandon us," encouraging France to retain its level
of civilian and military support. Truquet said that when he
saw Biya off at the airport the Cameroonian President
proclaimed he would "return with good news." Truquet had no
idea what that "good news" might be.

A Possible Rethink
--------------


5. (C) Truquet noted that Cameroon is France's largest aid
recipient. This is "by accident, not strategic design",
since 100 million euros of France's total 150 million euro
aid program here comes from HIPC debt relief funds. Most of
France's aid supports infrastructure and, to a lesser extent,
education programs. He noted that the Sarkozy administration
is reviewing its foreign policy priorities, including its
footprint in Cameroon. Truquet said that personally he
thought his government's large assistance and staffing in
Cameroon (including an Embassy, three Consulates and five
cultural centers) was out of proportion with its relatively
minor interests here. If Cameroon does not improve its
economic performance before the next national election,
Truquet thought it would be difficult for France to maintain
this large aid relationship and presence. He ventured that,
in any case, if Biya cannot deliver a tangible improvement in
people's lives in the next three years, he will be "finished"
internally.

Comment

YAOUNDE 00001271 002 OF 002


--------------


6. (C) Truquet, who has been in Cameroon for two years,
highlighted serious concerns about pervasive corruption and
growing frustration with the cost of living and poor social
services. He agreed that France and the United States have
many similar goals in Cameroon. We may be able to build
jointly on the Sarkozy meeting to press Biya to move more
quickly on economic reform and to be a more active global
player. Local media expects Biya's visit will also generate
some attention in France on the handling of the investigation
into the January murder of a French national NGO worker, the
subject of a recent French TV investigative report that was
critical of both governments. (Biya reportedly plans to meet
the woman's family in France to extend condolences, which may
deflect criticism.) We anticipate Biya and Sarkozy may also
chart next steps in the establishment of EIFORCES, a
Cameroonian-based, French-supported training center for
African peacekeeping forces (reftel).
GARVEY