UNPRECEDENTED PUBLIC DISSENT IN CAMEROON'S RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 001097

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PINR CM
SUBJECT: UNPRECEDENTED PUBLIC DISSENT IN CAMEROON'S RULING
PARTY


Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for reason 1.4 (B and D).


1. (SBU) Summary. The longstanding image of President Paul
Biya's ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) as
a disciplined monolith was shaken when veteran CPDM official
and National Assembly representative Adama Modi publicly
opposed the CPDM's candidate during August 31 elections for
the Speaker of the National Assembly. Cavaye Yeguie Djibril
was easily reelected to a sixteenth one-year term, but not
until after an unprecdented public display of party
indiscipline. Press speculation of a "CPDM rebellion" is
overblown, but the incident reflects a growing level of
discontent among party faithful and the nation with the
CPDM's authoritarian strictures that will likely crescendo
with the approach of the anticipated 2011 succession to Biya.
End summary.


2. (SBU) The Speaker of the National Assembly is the
constitutionally designated successor in case of an
unexpected vacancy in the Presidency for a period of 45 days
to allow for new elections. For his previous 15 one-year
terms as Speaker, Cavaye Yeguie Djibril was pre-selected by a
meeting of a CPDM steering committee, essentially on
instructions from Biya in his capacity as party president,
and his selection before the CPDM-controlled National
Assembly was a foregone conclusion. There had been
tremendous speculation as to whether Cavaye would be proposed
for another term. He had garnered unwelcome press attention
during the 2007 parliamentary and municipal elections for his
offer to pay 100,000 CFA (about $200) to those CPDM district
heads who delivered 100 percent turnout in favor of the CPDM,
and some commentators called for his prosecution for having
violated electoral laws that prohibit offering inducements
for votes. Cavaye is widely perceived to be unpopular among
his supposed constituency in the north where, in any event,
the CPDM lost ground to the opposition National Union for
Democracy and Progress (UNDP) party in the 2007 elections.
Perhaps more significantly, a rumored campaign by notables
from Cameroon's northern provinces to forfeit the Speaker
position in favor of having a northerner as Prime Minister
(which has gone to an Anglophone in recent cabinets) fueled
speculation that Cavaye might be jettisoned.


3. (SBU) Nevertheless, no one anticipated that the CPDM's
(and Biya's) choice, once made, would face any public debate
from within the party. When Cavaye's candidacy was presented
to the Assembly on August 31, however, Adama Modi, a former
Secretary of State in the Ministry of Territorial

SIPDIS
Administration and a CPDM representative from the Extreme
North Province, voiced his objection, which sparked applause
from some opposition and CPDM MPs. Press reports indicate
that CPDM heavyweights, including ministers from Cameroon's
northern provinces and senior party leaders, were called to
the National Assembly to inveigh personally on Modi to drop
his opposition. In the end, Modi stormed out of the chamber
as the election went forward. Cavaye was re-elected with 130
votes and 13 abstentions within the CPDM party caucus.


4. (C) In a September 4 meeting with Charge, Prime Minister
Inoni characterized Modi's opposition (and presumably, some
of the support shown by other MPs) as "unprecedented" and
attributed it to the desire among northern officials to pass
over the position of Speaker of the Assembly in favor of the
Prime Minister slot.


5. (C) Comment. Biya's decision to retain Cavaye may
reflect his desire to have a known, loyal agent at
Parliament's helm, regardless of Cavaye's baggage. While
Modi's public opposition to Biya's will could not have been
predicted, certainly the CPDM leadership knew it would face
criticism for sticking with Cavaye despite his campaign
gaffes and general unpopularity. Inoni's offered explanation
does not tell the whole story; Modi's unprecedented outburst
is more than just regional politicking. The CPDM grassroots
are increasingly chafing at the party's centralized
leadership and demanding a larger role in party decisions.
We saw this during the CPDM primaries for the 2007 elections,
and it appears to be gaining strength. Increasingly, all
eyes will be on the anticipated presidential succession in
2011 - unless Biya uses his large parliamentary majority and
handpicked Speaker to change the constitution so he can run
for another term. Either way, internal jockeying for power
within the CPDM will likely increase. End comment.
NELSON