PM TUSK WINS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002274

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: PM TUSK WINS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN PARLIAMENT

REF: WARSAW 2224 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: As expected, PM Donald Tusk won a vote of
confidence in the Polish Sejm on November 24, winning 238
votes (230 are necessary). Tusk presented his governmental
expose to the Sejm on November 23, outlining an ambitious
agenda that includes health sector reform, infrastructure
improvements and maintaining Poland's strong economic
performance. On foreign policy issues, Tusk pledged to
withdraw Polish troops from Iraq in 2008, but did not state a
timeline for that withdrawal, saying the date would be worked
out with Poland's closest allies, including the U.S. His
willingness to be flexible bodes well for the GOP working
with us to shape the withdrawal. On Afghanistan, Tusk
pledged to maintain the number of Polish troops deployed,
especially given the NATO basis of the mission, and called
for it to transition to a more civilian character. Tusk also
emphasized the need for Poland to "intensify" relations with
its nearest neighbors, specifically mentioning Germany and
France, and stated the need for better relations with Russia.
President Lech Kaczynski was absent from Tusk's speech, on a
long-planned visit to Georgia. President Kaczynski will look
to play an intensified role in foreign and security policy,
with a revitalized Presidential Chancellery that is sure to
bump up against the new PM and his team, especially when it
lets domestic politics blur with foreign policy. End
Summary.

Tusk Wins His Vote of Confidence Handily
--------------


2. (SBU) PM Donald Tusk won a vote of confidence in
Parliament, 238 votes to 204. The majority came from party
line votes from his Civic Platform (PO) party and the Polish
People's Party (PSL),with which he signed a coalition
agreement on November 23. As expected, opposition Law and
Justice (PiS) and the Left and Democrats (LiD) voted against
the government. Former Deputy PM and Minister of Finance
Zita Gilowska (formerly a PO leader) and former Minister of
Health Zbigniew Religa (once close to PO),who both served in
the PiS government and were elected from PiS, were present
but did not vote. With the vote done, the transition to
Tusk's government is complete. The Polish constitution gives
broad powers to the Prime Minister, and it is difficult to
remove a government from office. We expect this government
to be more stable than its immediate predecessor.

Polish Troops to Withdraw from Iraq in 2008
Better Relations with EU and Russia
--------------


3. (C) Tusk delivered a three-hour long speech to the Sejm on
November 23 to outline his plans for the government. On
foreign policy issues, Tusk vowed that Polish troops would
end their Iraq deployment in 2008, but offered no specifics
as to dates or conditions. He pledged to work closely with
allies, mentioning the United States, on the details. (Note:
The Ambassador had urged FM Radek Sikorski in their
one-on-one meeting November 21 to consult first with the USG
before moving precipitously or announcing specific dates,
which Sikorski said Tusk planned to do. Sikorski promised to
pass word to PM Tusk to ask him not to announce a specific
date. End Note) In his speech, Tusk said there would be no
change in Poland's troop levels in Afghanistan in 2008, and
pledged 350 Polish soldiers to the EU peacekeeping mission in
Chad. On Missile Defense, Tusk said that there would be
further negotiations with the United States after a round of
consultations with NATO and with "some of Poland's
neighbors." As for the United States, Tusk expressed hope
for a broader presence of the United States in Poland, and
emphasized the mutual values both countries share.


4. (SBU) Tusk's references to foreign policy were at bottom
criticisms of the mishandling of several key relationships by
the Kaczynskis, especially within the EU (in particular with
German) and with Russia. He said he would return to a policy
of dialogue with Russia, while continuing support for
democracy in Belarus and for Ukraine's European aspirations.
He pledged to develop better relations with Germany, as with
all European Union countries, and to "intensify" Poland's
activity within the EU. (Note: The government announced on
November 27 that it would not block Russia's bid to enter the
WTO--it's first significant policy shift. End Note)

"A Normal Government..."
--------------


5. (U) Making another dig at the turbulent Kaczynski-led
government, Tusk promised "a normal government for a normal

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country." His domestic agenda includes ending compulsory
military service, splitting the functions of the Minister of
Justice and the prosecutor general and expediting the
construction of roads and highways. Tusk added that his
government would unveil a four-year privatization plan.
After two years of resistance to privatization by the PiS-led
government, business leaders are encouraged that PO will
follow through with a more aggressive privatization plan.
Tusk further promised health care, pension and education
reforms.

Health Reform a Potential Problem
--------------


6. (C) Tusk is enjoying a honeymoon with the Polish public,
but it may be short-lived. In addition, he is enjoying no
honeymoon with the opposition. PiS promised and will almost
certainly deliver an almost reflexive opposition to Tusk and
his program. PiS party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski offered a
blistering criticism immediately following the PM's expose,
calling it a return to "pacification, petrificaction and
restoration." Tusk will also face some real domestic
problems, starting with the deplorable state of the health
sector. Gazeta Wyborcza editor Piotr Stasinski and Polytika
commentator Janina Paradowska separately told poloffs that
health reform is a potential mine field for the new
government -- with already poor standards falling, and
salaries so low that medical professionals are increasingly
abandoning the field or moving abroad to work for higher pay.
This, combined with higher expectations among Poles as their
incomes rise, is a recipe for serious political difficulty.

Comment
--------------

7. (C) Comment: Tusk's pledge to remove Polish troops from
Iraq follows up on an oft-repeated campaign pledge. Foreign
Minister Sikorski told Ambassador that Tusk considers this a
"solemn pledge," and he will want to start showing something
to his public sooner rather than later, but we have been
assured this will be done in consultation with us. On MD,
Platforma and the Left and Democratic (LiD) told us often
that they received more information from us than from the
then PiS government about the status of negotiations on
Missile Defense. Tusk and his ministers will want to review
where things stand before they move forward. We should
welcome his signal that his government will consult with
Russia and not leaving that all to us. European leaders are
encouraged that they will have a more reasonable counterpart
in Warsaw. While Tusk stated in his speech that he would
work with the President to ensure coordination on foreign
policy, we have already seen hints that President Kaczynski
will allow domestic politics to influence his handling of
foreign policy, which may complicate our efforts on key
issues. These issues will compete for Tusk's attention with
nagging domestic problems left unaddressed by the previous
government, notably health care and pension reform. With a
spirited opposition and a revitalized Presidential
chancellery intent on playing up its role, particularly on
foreign and security policy, Tusk will face many challenges
in the weeks and months ahead. End Comment.
HILLAS