Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07VILNIUS542
2007-08-01 08:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Vilnius
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF THE LITHUANIAN

Tags:  OVIP PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ LH 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 010801Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1466
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 2499
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA PRIORITY 3311
RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN PRIORITY 6931
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 3659
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1568
C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000542 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR CLOUD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ LH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF THE LITHUANIAN
FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS

REF: VILNIUS 00511

Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000542

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR CLOUD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ LH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF THE LITHUANIAN
FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS

REF: VILNIUS 00511

Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) As part of President Adamkus's decision to maintain a
combat platoon on Iraq, he tasked Foreign Minister
Vaitiekunas and Defense Minister Olekas to travel to
Washington to discuss Lithuania's role in Iraq. MNF-Iraq has
given the Lithuanian military a variety of options and
promised needed logistical support. Vaitiekunas supports the
continued deployment of a platoon. Olekas has been opposed,
but has been overruled by President Adamkus. While the
Lithuanian Parliament has recently approved a three-year
extension for their troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, the
government still needs to extend its formal mandate in Iraq
beyond December 2007. So, even though the Lithuanians claim
to be only talking about a mandate until the end of 2007,
finding the right role for the combat platoon should keep
them in place much longer. However, the visit is as much
about U.S.-Lithuanian relations as it is about Iraq.


2. (C) Lithuania finds itself in the midst of multiple
transitions each of which sows self doubt and angst. After
having achieved its twin goals of membership in NATO and the
EU in 2004, Lithuania has not developed a consensus on a new
national goal. Instead, they are finding that membership in
both institutions contains obligations as well as
opportunities. At the same time, they have not completely
internalized that these are very different institutions and
that the trading culture of the EU is inappropriate for NATO
and for dealing with us.


3. (C) On the political side, this period coincides with the
departure of Lithuania's first generation of leaders -- the
move of conservative leader Landsbergis to the European
Parliament and the retirement of post Communist leader
Brazauskas. President Adamkus is now in the last two years

of his second term. He will be almost 83 when his term ends
and he is not expected to seek a third term. This situation
places considerable political uncertainty over the country,
particularly for an ambitious politician such as Olekas.


4. (C) Lithuania has, to date, "punched above its weight" in
Iraq and Afghanistan and they take seriously NATO force goals
and their contributions to the NRF. While the NATO air
policing mission in the Baltics is symbolically important,
NATO membership has not protected them from their big
neighbor -- Russia -- the way they expected. Instead, even
with NATO membership, Lithuania feels vulnerable to new types
of challenges from Russia. Russia's decision to suspend oil
shipments via the Druzhba pipeline and to threaten to suspend
natural gas shipments to Belarus (Lithuania receives natural
gas via the same pipeline) has heightened Lithuanian
awareness of their vulnerability. Many Lithuanians see
Russia behind everything bad that happens in the country.
The opposition conservative party recently promoted a series
of measures designed to "contain Russia."


5. (C) 2002-2005 were halcyon years for the U.S.-Lithuanian
relationship. President Bush visited in 2002. The
Lithuanians were part of Secretary Rumsfeld's "New Europe" in
2003, and they acceded to NATO in 2004. Now Lithuania's
relationship with the U.S. is also changing. With the
expansion of NATO and the EU, the relationship has become
less about Lithuania and more about what we can do together
globally. While we continue to want Lithuanian partnership,
we now expect them to carry more of the costs (e.g.,
operating costs for the PRT in Afghanistan which we paid at
first). Lithuanians found the old relationship with its high
level visits and extensive financial support much more
comfortable and less demanding, particularly on their budget.
In addition, the Lithuanians have been taken aback to find
that in cases such as OECD accession not only did we not
provide them with the accustomed roadmap for their
membership, but we did not even support their membership.
While they might have been able to reconcile themselves to
this, it was further complicated by provoking Baltic jealousy
with Estonia gaining approval for accession negotiations and
then -- even worse from their perspective -- acquiescing to
their "Great Satan's" (Russia's) eventual membership. Our
inability to get the Congress to approve the donation of two
Osprey class minesweepers has led even our friends to

question our support.


6. (C) Vaitiekunas and Olekas will be looking to discuss and
obtain U.S. support for several things during this visit
going beyond Iraq. Most basically, Vaitiekunas will be
looking for reaffirmation of our close relationship. Olekas
will use any hesitancy on our part to convince their
colleagues in the government that they no longer have to do
the hard things for us. Beyond that, Lithuania really has
four foreign policy focuses: energy security, Russia, their
PRT in Afghanistan, and democratization in their
neighborhood. They will be looking for assurances that we
are not going soft on Putin and Russia. (They follow our
discussions with Russia closely, and we constantly have to
reassure them that the President and the Secretary mean what
they say.) On energy security, the Lithuanians appreciate
the importance of diversity of supply. Their near term
situation is difficult with their Chernobyl-style nuclear
power plant required to close in 2009 under their EU
accession agreement. They are working with their neighbors to
have a replacement facility ready between 2015 and 2020. In
the meantime, they appreciate the importance of a southern
gas route from Central Asia to Europe and have been a driving
force in creating a new EU consensus on energy policy. They
have invited Secretary Bodman to an "Energy Summit" they are
hosting October 10-11 designed to promote greater EU
consensus and promote a new, independent Caspain gas route.
They are hoping that Kazahk President Nazarbayev and Turkmen
President Berdimuhammedov will attend.


7. (C) On Afghanistan, they fear that Ghor Province will be
left behind because they do not (and will not) have the
resources to put into major economic development. They have
done some work to bring the Gulf States on board with our
assistance. But they are finding that they do not have the
development expertise to create projects with sufficient
scale to attract the attention of the Gulf States. They are
looking for AID to continue to deliver some assistance in
Ghor Province, but also for our help in designing projects
suitable for Ghor that could attract funding from elsewhere.


8. (C) With regard to Lithuania's neighborhood (Belarus,
Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia) cooperation is currently
excellent. The Lithuanians remain uncomfortable with
isolating Belarus, given that they see themselves as being of
the same family, but they do appreciate that Lukashenko has
done little to deserve a change of approach from the EU and
the U.S.


9. (C) The Lithuanians are in need of some alliance
management. They have gone from being one of our darlings in
the 2003-2005 period to being a trusted and important ally.
This transition is natural and appropriate from our
perspective, but a little daunting from theirs. I appreciate
your willingness to spend some time helping the Lithuanians
understand the important role they play as a friend and ally
of the United States with both the privileges and
expectations that go with that. I believe this time will be
particularly well spent with DefMin Olekas. Although the
driving force in working to downsize Lithuania's commitment
to Iraq, he has been a strong proponent of Lithuanian
involvement in Afghanistan. I have not found him to be
anti-American. He is a medical doctor who is much more
focused on domestic politics than on security issues.
However, he appreciates the importance of NATO to Lithuania's
security and the importance of U.S.-Lithuanian relations. He
is also the host for February's NATO Defense Ministerial. I
believe he can be turned around if he appreciates that the
Lithuanian forces are meeting an important need.


CLOUD