LITHUANIA MAY INTERVENE ON MOLDOVA AT MAY 14 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017
TAGS: PREL EUN ETRD KPAL LH RS MD
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA MAY INTERVENE ON MOLDOVA AT MAY 14 GAERC

REF: STATE 60948

Classified By: POL/ECON Chief Rebecca Dunham for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C) Summary: Lithuania may intervene at the May 14 GAERC
on Moldova. The GOL sees little chance of making progress
towards a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia
given the current climate. They have suspicions that the
secretive negotiations concluded between Russia and Moldova

SIPDIS
on Transnistria may be intended to strengthen the Russian
argument that a negotiated solution is possible and necessary
in Kosovo. End Summary.

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Key Lithuanian Positions
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2. (C) We delivered reftel points on the May 14 GAERC agenda
items to Tomas Gulbinas, head of the MFA's Common Foreign and
Security Policy Division May 8. Gulbinas told us that the
GOL is puzzled by the secretive negotiations between Moldova
and Russia on Transnistria; conclusions from these
negotiations were leaked and published by analyst Vladimir
Socor in mid-April. Gulbinas told us that the GOL may
intervene at the May 14 GAERC on Moldova. He speculated that
Russia was planning to use the reported talks in connection
with UNSC negotiations on a resolution for Kosovo. He
suspects that the GOR will use this negotiated settlement as
evidence that a negotiated settlement is possible in Kosovo,
and veto any resolution that is not agreed to by the Serbs.
(Another MFA source told us that the GOL has invited Moldovan
President Voronin to Vilnius June 2 to remind him of his
non-Russian options.)

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Russia-EU Summit
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3. (C) Gulbinas told us that he does not expect any progress
at this GAERC on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
(PCA) for Russia. He noted that in the context of the
attacks on the Estonian Embassy in Moscow, Russia not having
resolved the Polish meat issue, Russia having called a
moratorium on the CFE Treaty, threats made in relation to the
missile defense system, moves against foreign investors in
Russia, and no progress on resuming oil flows through the
spur of the Druzhba Pipeline that feeds Lithuania's Mazeikiu
Nafta Refinery, he doesn't see any window for potential
progress. We asked Gulbinas which of these issues would be
essential to GOL backing for the PCA; he said it would be
restoration of oil flows to Mazeikiu Nafta and resolution of
the Polish meat issue. He pointed out that the PCA was
intended for countries that are engaging in rapprochement
with the EU, not for those defying it.

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Kosovo
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4. (C) Gulbinas said that the GOL is strongly in support of a
UN Security Council Resolution on Kosovo's status. Gulbinas
said that the GOL fears that a scenario involving each
country individually acknowledging independence for Kosovo
will portend difficulties in other frozen conflicts, most
notably in the South Caucasus.

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Black Sea Region
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5. (C) Gulbinas told us that the Governments of Poland and
Greece have some small reservations about the conclusions on
the Black Sea Region as they stand now, but that by May 14
these should be addressed. He noted that these conclusions
are not very substantive, and mostly give a mandate for
further work.

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Other Issues
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6. (C) Gulbinas thanked the USG for the information on the
other agenda items. He noted that the GOL agreed with many
of the points included in the non-paper. He didn't expect
any discussion at the GAERC of Austrian energy company OMV's
decision to enter into a major gas deal with Iran.
CLOUD