PAKSAS'S PARTY WINS VILNIUS MAYORSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000290

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR LH
SUBJECT: PAKSAS'S PARTY WINS VILNIUS MAYORSHIP

REF: A. VILNIUS 104


B. VILNIUS 40

C. 2004 VILNIUS 382

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Rebecca Dunham for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The new mayor of Vilnius is Juozas Imbrasas,
a strong supporter of impeached ex-president Rolandas Paksas
and member of the Paksas-led Liberal Democratic Party. His
election is a first step toward re-establishing Paksas and
his party as significant political players. End Summary.

Municipal Elections in Lithuania
--------------


2. (U) Lithuania had local elections for each of its 60
municipal districts on February 25 (reftels A and B).
Election of mayors throughout Lithuania is indirect; voters
elect council members based on party lists, and they, in
turn, choose the mayor. Multiparty coalitions are almost
invariably needed within municipal councils to select a
mayor, and local coalitions often vary considerably from the
configuration of political forces at the national level.

Victory in Vilnius: the first step toward redemption?
-------------- --------------


3. (U) After two months of negotiations, the Vilnius City
Council elected 67-year old Liberal Democrat Juozas Imbrasas
mayor on April 16 with a vote of 28 for, one against, and 22
abstentions. The Liberal Democrats proposed Imbrasas
following the public statements of Social Democratic leaders
that they could not support LibDem party-leader Paksas as
mayor. There will be four Vice Mayors, one from each of the
parties in the coalition: Social Democrat Algirdas Paleckis
(pa-LETS-kiss),Liberal Movement representative Arunas Staras
(SHTA-ras),Polish Electoral Action party member Artur
Liudovski (lyoo-DAV-skee),and Liberal Democrat Evaldas
Lementauskas (leh-men-TOW-skas).


4. (U) The mayoral victory in Vilnius is the first
manifestation of the Liberal Democrats' return to power since
Paksas left the Presidency in disgrace following his
impeachment for violations of his constitutional oath (ref
C). The party rode the wave of Paksas's current popularity
in the municipal elections, taking 181 council seats
nationwide and five mayorships. It continues to do well in
polls, and could reassert itself at the national level in
Parliamentary elections slated for Fall 2008.

Paksas's rise may mean Paleckis's fall
--------------


5. (U) The Liberal Democratic Party has come a long way
toward re-establishing itself as a legitimate ally, at least
for some politicians, after a long period of political
isolation. Paksas managed to attract the support of Social
Democrat Paleckis, who caused an imbroglio within his own
party when he initially signaled his intention to support
Paksas for the mayor's seat. Paleckis, who ultimately gave
up his parliamentary seat in order to become a Vice Mayor, so
angered his party leadership for negotiating with an outcast
that there is talk of cancelling his party membership. The
compromise in supporting Imbrasas allowed the Social
Democratic Party's central authorities to support the
coalition. Nevertheless, there are rumors that Paleckis will
switch parties and take the first slot on the Liberal
Democratic list in the 2008 Parliamentary elections.


6. (U) More surprising than Paleckis's behavior to many
political observers was that Liberal Movement chairman Petras
Austrevicius decided, apparently on the day of the vote, to
support the Liberal Democrats. Many see Austrevicius, who
himself ran in the Vilnius council elections and would have
given up his MP seat if he could have become mayor, as one of
the few principled politicians in the country, and his
dalliance with Paksas's party jeopardizes that reputation.
The Liberal Movement in general did very poorly nation-wide
in the municipal elections. The media has speculated that,
in an example of the kind of inter-municipal horse trading
that is common in Lithuania, in exchange for the Liberal
Movement's support in Vilnius, the Liberal Democrats promised
not only a Vilnius vice mayor post, but also to help the
Liberal Movement gain the mayorship in Klaipeda.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The Vilnius mayor's seat went to the party that won
the most votes in Vilnius. In most places, this would not
come as a surprise, but given the serious negotiating that
goes on in every municipality, it was not a foregone

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conclusion in Vilnius. In addition, the chattering classes
that brought Paksas's downfall in 2004 seemed determined to
keep him and his party out of the mayor's office in 2007 in
order to prevent his return to legitimacy. They succeeded
only partially, by forcing Paksas to defer to a lesser
politician from his own party. Time will tell whether
Imbrasas will exhibit any independence, or only act on
Paksas's behalf.


8. (C) The Liberal Democrats ran an innovative grassroots
campaign, which may partially account for the party's
popularity nationwide. Paksas also excels at playing the
victim (which he may be),and this added to his allure to the
common man. Paksas himself is still barred from national
office, but he is challenging this restriction in the
European Court of Human Rights. The head of Lithuania's
Constitutional Court recently told the Ambassador that Paksas
has no chance to win that case. If he does win, Paksas would
certainly become an MP in Fall 2008 to position himself for a
presidential run in Summer 2009.

Bio Note
--------------


9. (C) In the Ambassador's courtesy call on him April 25,
Imbrasas appeared to be pragmatic and intelligent. He said
he would eschew major changes in the existing plans for
Vilnius's year as Europe's culture capital (in 2009),because
planning is already well underway. He criticized his
predecessor's tendency to support projects in which he was
alleged to have a personal interest. Imbrasas expressed his
desire to work positively with the USG.


10. (U) Juozas Imbrasas was born on January 8, 1941 in the
Ukmerge region of Lithuania. A construction engineer, he
graduated from Vilnius Construction Professional School in
1961, and the Kaunas Polytechnic Institute (Vilnius chapter)
in 1967. He was a Conservative Party member from 1995 until
1999, when he joined the Liberal Union. He joined the
Liberal Democratic Party in 2002. Imbrasas was a strong
supporter of Paksas during the latter's impeachment process
in 2003 - 2004, even organizing an un-permitted pro-Paksas
demonstration in December 2003. He has been a Vilnius City
Council member since 1999, and served as mayor from June 1999
to April 2000. He is married to Birute Imbrasiene and has a
son (Gediminas) and a daughter (Ramune). He speaks Russian
and a little English.
CLOUD