UNSYG BAN'S PRE-BALI CLIMATE CHANGE BRIEFER FROM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000903

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SENSITIVE
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NSC FOR CEQ CONNAUGHTON, VAN DYKE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON KGHG SENV
SUBJECT: UNSYG BAN'S PRE-BALI CLIMATE CHANGE BRIEFER FROM
UNFCCC

REF: JAKARTA 2945

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In an October 18 briefing memo to the UN
Secretary-General summarizing events and possible actions

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leading up to the December ministerial in Bali, Yvo de Boer,
the UN's top climate change official, says he expects an
Indonesian-hosted pre-ministerial in Bogor October 23-25 to
reveal a great deal about whether Bali will be a "success" or
"failure," as well as guide the SYG on how best to wield his
own influence to facilitate a successful outcome. The SYG
plans a busy travel agenda in coming months to further
spotlight concerns on climate change. End summary.


2. (SBU) Following UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's
September 24 High-Level Event on climate change in New York,
Ban convened an October 8 meeting of his climate change
Special Envoys and principals of his informal Climate Change
Team to strategize on how best to promote a successful
outcome for the Bali Climate Change ministerial in December.
Among the apparent outcomes of that process are the SYG's
decisions to highlight climate change during upcoming visits
to Antarctica (being facilitated by Chile, whose former
president Ricardo Lagos is one of the SYG's special climate
envoys),to Amazonia, and to Valencia, Spain for the November
release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Fourth Assessment synthesis report. The SYG will
attend the high-level segment of the Bali conference as well.
The October 8 meeting also stimulated Yvo de Boer, Executive
Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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(UNFCCC) Secretariat, to write a briefing and recommendations
paper to the SYG, which was submitted on October 18. (Note:
A copy, which we obtained privately from a UN contact, has
been forwarded to IO/EDA. End note.)

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Background on Bali
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3. (SBU) In his briefing paper, de Boer describes the five
main meetings taking place during the Bali conference,
focusing on the three "that will determine the outcome of
Bali in terms of future negotiations": the Conference of
Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 13),the Meeting of the Parties to
the Kyoto Protocol (CMP),and the Kyoto Protocol's Ad Hoc
Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties
(AWG). De Boer tells the SYG that the COP 13 will consider
the report of an informal dialogue (begun in 2005) on four
options for further action:

-- continuation of the dialogue (favored by China);

-- launch of discussions on future commitments/actions within
the COP;

-- launch of a negotiating group under the COP to develop a
new agreement either to supplement or to succeed the Kyoto
Protocol; or

-- launch of joint negotiations under the Convention and the
Kyoto Protocol in a single process.

De Boer states that the first option would be considered a
"failure" for Bali, while the developing states are likely to
reject the final option. He therefore asserts that either of
the middle two options, and preferably the third, are the
most likely outcomes of Bali.


4. (SBU) The CMP will undertake a review of the Kyoto
Protocol, but talks on this theme during previous
ministerials broke down over splits among developed and
developing countries. Meanwhile, the AWG will discuss a
workplan and timetable for Annex I Parties to complete a new
negotiation for further greenhouse gas reductions (on the
order of 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020).

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UNFCCC Recommendations on the SYG's Role
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5. (SBU) De Boer's memo emphasizes that the UNFCCC process is
"government driven" where "parties guard their prerogatives
jealously," warning the SYG and UN agencies from taking too
proactive a role. He also cautions the SYG against

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establishing any new UN "coordination mechanisms" outside the
UNFCCC Secretariat. More broadly, however, he sees the most
"urgent" requirement as the implementation by UN system
agencies of existing mandates, particularly regarding
adaptation to climate change. "The UN system record in that
respect is not what it could be and this is not lost in the
eyes of the Parties." De Boer recommends that the SYG's
Climate Change Team stick to drafting statements and talking
points for the SYG and his envoys, but not to get involved in
Bali preparations or negotiations.


6. (SBU) De Boer promises to brief the SYG on the outcome of
an informal ministerial meeting of about 40 countries on
October 23-25 in Bogor, Indonesia, which Indonesia is
convening to help "prepare the ground" for Bali (reftel). He
predicts that the results of the Bogor meeting "will provide
a clear indication of where we are going in terms of success
or failure in Bali." (Note: De Boer also requested to
deliver a statement from the SYG at Bogor. End note.) "Once
the Bogor results are known, that would be a good time... to
approach countries that may have been most recalcitrant." De
Boer suggests employing the SYG's and his envoys' personal
interventions. "Having established yourself as an important
voice and actor on climate change, your authority would need
to be invoked on topics of strategic importance ('the high
ground') without getting involved in the highly divisive
technicalities of the negotiations." De Boer concludes with
a recommendation that the SYG's program for the December
12-14 high-level segment in Bali be kept flexible in case he
should choose to engage in "corridor and back-room diplomacy."
WOLFF