GAMBARI RAISES ISSUES FOR A TRANSITION IN BURMA

S E C R E T USUN NEW YORK 000832

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR NSA STEPHEN HADLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC BM
SUBJECT: GAMBARI RAISES ISSUES FOR A TRANSITION IN BURMA


Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, Permanent Representative.
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) This is an action request. See para 6.


2. (S) On October 8, Ambassador Khalilzad met with Special
Adviser Ibrahim Gambari to discuss next steps following the
latter's return from Burma. Several issues emerged in the
discussion, which could benefit from an NSC-led interagency
review, with an eye toward developing options for a
negotiated transition in the country.


3. (S) The Fate of the Military: Recalling her father's
military background, ASSK told Gambari that the military was
important for the country and could not be allowed to
disintegrate. In that vein, she said she was prepared to
accept the establishment of a joint transition period with
the military. Noting Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew statement on
October 5 that Burma was a "time bomb" for the region,
Gambari reported that Singapore had already prepared a
message to the regime offering to receive some military
leaders as part of a transition agreement. What kind of
assurances should opposition leaders like ASSK be willing to
provide regime leaders about the fate of the military? What
are the models we need to review where the role of the
military has successfully transitioned in a civilian
government? How deep into the ranks of the military would
one need to go? What would be the role of the U.S. be in
such a negotiation with the military, if any, and what kind
of assurances would we be willing to give?


4. (S) The effectiveness of ASSK: Gambari told Ambassador
Khalilzad that some of her advisers were nearing 80 years old
and have been isolated for many years. How can we best
strengthen her ability to conduct a dialogue with all
sections of Burmese society to begin the transition to a
civilian, representative government? Who is advising her?
Does she have the capacity to do the job? Does the
international community, including the U.S., need to help
identify available Burmese talent? Should this task be given
to UNDP? Is it the correct institution or are there others?


5. (S) Transitional Fund: Can the creation of a transition
fund of some dimension help provide economic stability? What
activities can be supported during the transition, such as in
the medical field, which will make a positive contribution.
Can our own Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and
Malaria contribute in any way?

ACTION REQUEST
--------------


6. (S) USUN requests that an inter-agency group review these
and related issues, for the consideration by Deputies in an
expedited manner. Gambari has requested that the U.S.
convene in the next few days a small core group comprised of
China, Japan, India, Russia, Singapore (as president of
ASEAN) and the EU/EC to help him brainstorm on transition and
other issues, as he and the Secretary General consider how
best to take advantage of the momentum Gambari's trip has
generated.
KHALILZAD