UNSC HEARS THAT GUINEA-BISSAU PROGRESS IS FRAGILE

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 000816

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GB
SUBJECT: UNSC HEARS THAT GUINEA-BISSAU PROGRESS IS FRAGILE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Secretary-General's representative,
Shola Omoregie, told the Security Council on October 3 that
the evident calm in Guinea-Bissau is deceptive. Political,
security, and social tensions are rising beneath the surface
and will likely rise further in the run-up to elections.
Omoregie praised the efforts of the Guinea-Bissau Government
to reform the security sector, combat narcotics trafficking,
and control spending and argued that continued progress would
require continued assistance, especially financial
assistance, of bilateral donors, international financial
institutions, as well as coordination of efforts, possibly
through the Peace Building Commission. All members
expressing an opinion endorsed in principle a Council
referral of Guinea-Bissau to the Peace Building Commission;
the U.S. and UK suggested that the Council should develop
clear criteria for such referrals. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In closed consultations on October 3, SYG
Representative Shola Omoregie, chief of the UN Peacebuilding
Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS),told Security
Council members that the Government of Guinea-Bissau has
continued to impress him with sustained efforts to address
the country's many problems. He praised particularly the
government's demonstration of relative fiscal restraint and
its development of a security sector reform plan of action.


3. (SBU) Omoregie made clear, however, that progress in
Guinea-Bissau has been limited and is not yet
self-sustaining. He said payment of public sector salaries
is chronically problematic and arrearages regularly threaten
social order. In response to a question from the South
African PermRep, he acknowledged that Guinea-Bissau has far
too many generals in its active-duty army but sympathized
that "they cannot retire because they have no pensions and no
assurance of gainful employment." Omoregie described the
legislative elections, expected next spring, as both an
opportunity and a risk in that democracy could be deepened
but violence is also a distinct possibility as divisions are
exposed.


4. (SBU) Omoregie also flagged narcotics trafficking as an
overarching concern and one against which the government is
potentially overmatched from a resource perspective.
Although he praised the government for ratifying the UN
Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime, he
described a reality that has planes arriving with regularity
in the coastal archipelago from South America with illicit
cargos of such value that the planes themselves are
expendable.


5. (SBU) Several members urged a holistic approach to dealing
with Guinea-Bissau's many problems and, in this regard,
endorsed Prime Minister N'Dafa Cabi's request that
Guinea-Bissau be placed on the Peace Building Commission's
agenda. South Africa, Congo, China, and Ghana expressly
endorsed the referral. No member spoke in opposition.
Ambassador Wolcott said that the USG supports such a referral
in principle and, seconded by the UK, she suggested that the
Council should at the same time develop comprehensive
criteria for such referrals.


6. (SBU) Ambassador Wolcott also asked Omoregie whether the
Government of Guinea-Bissau appreciated the extent to which a
Peace Building Commission presence would insist on access to
every aspect of the nation's governance as the price of PBC
interest. Omoregie replied that he has several times
personally explained the consequences of a PBC presence to
both the prime minister and the foreign minister, adding that
"the patient has no choice but to agree to the surgery out of
desperation."
KHALILZAD