DPKO BRIEFS P3 PLUS BELGIUM AND SOUTH AFRICA ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000557

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ASEC UNSC KPKO MOPS CG
SUBJECT: DPKO BRIEFS P3 PLUS BELGIUM AND SOUTH AFRICA ON
KIVUS AND CONSULTATION WITH DRC

REF: KINSHASA 754


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations Guehenno briefed the P3 plus Two (South Africa and
Belgium) on the situation in the DRC and its implications for
an eventual MONUC phase-out. The discussion mostly concerned
the deteriorating security situation in the Kivus and the
Government's failure to come up with a coherent plan for a
political and diplomatic settlement of serious ethnic
tensions and conflict. Guehenno also discussed the role of
the Rwandan government given its economic and political
interests in eastern DRC and suggested diplomatic initiatives
to ecourage positive Rwandan involvement in resolving the
Kivu conflict. Guehenno advocated continued international
support of security sector reform and the formation of a
DRC-based consultation mechanism to be similarly led by the
P3 plus Two. END SUMMARY.

SITUATION IN THE KIVUS


2. (SBU) At his initiative, DPKO A/S Jean-Marie Guehenno
briefed the P3 plus 2 missions on July 5 on the deteriorating
security situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
particularly in the Kivus region. PolMinCouns and Pol Intern
represented USUN.


3. (SBU) According to Guehenno, it is not a question of if
hostilities will break out, but rather when. A
government-proposed roundtable in Kisangani has not
materialized and there seems to be little thought of a
political settlement, with key stakeholders opposing any
meeting outside of the Kivus. Suspicion in the Kivus remains
strong that the government has a military resolution in mind
for insecurity in the provinces. The Tutsi and Banyamulenge
are reacting to what they feel is a genuine threat. This
lack of trust has also stalled efforts to integrate military
forces in the region. As a result, Guehenno reported that
citizens are turning to self-defense groups rather than the
national army for protection. The Democratic Liberation
Forces of Rwanda (FDLR) and former DRC Army General turned
rebel Laurent Nkunda are two such groups, according to
Guehenno.


4. (SBU) Efforts continue to deprive General Nkunda of his
political base, said Mr. Guehenno. He regretted that DRC
President Kabila was not making more use of the presidents of
the Senate and the Assembly who could clearly play positive
roles in facilitating a political settlement. (COMMENT:
Council members received on July 5 the text of the peace plan
for the Kivus proposed during the SC mission by Assembly
President Kamerhe. The document was circulated to Council
members at the request of the Congo mission but government
endorsement is not clear. END OF COMMENT.) Rwanda's
relationship to Gen. Nkunda remains unclear, although there
are reliable reports about the recruiting of troops in Rwanda
for Nkunda's ranks. Given a relatively well-run public
administration in Rwanda, Guehenno found it difficult to
believe that this is happening without at least tacit
permission of the Government. According to PermRep Kumalo of
South Africa, while the GOR publicly denies any support of
Nkunda, the Rwandan Government also seems to think Nkunda is
a viable way of countering the threat from the former
genocidal forces in Rwanda, the Interahamwe.


5. (SBU) According to MONUC estimates, 115,000-200,000
people have been displaced by the situation in the Kivus.
Both Mr. Guehenno and PermRep de La Sabliere of France
expressed the belief that President Kabila wants a pacific
solution to the problems in the east, although he is under
strong countervailing political pressure from his political
base in the east. PermRep de La Sabliere offered to work on
agreed upon points should member capitals decide to deliver
demarches in Kinshasa. All agreed that more active diplomacy
was required to bring Rwandan President Kagame and DRC
President Kabila together in a relationship of mutual benefit
aimed at stabilizing Eastern Congo and opening up trade
links. Rwanda has remained a key player, according to
Guehenno, both because of its economic and political
interests in the neighboring eastern DRC and due to the
number of former Rwandan armed forces present in the region.


6. (SBU) There was skepticism in the meeting about the
seriousness of the threat to Kigali of the remaining FDLR

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elements, with several representatives asserting that the
Rwandans appear to be exploiting the alleged threat for their
own purposes in the DRC. Others suggested using the brassage
(retraining and reintegration of regional units into one
national military) and SSR processes to weed out
ex-Interahamwe who have infiltrated the ranks of the FADRC.
According to MONUC, 6,000-8,000 FDLR fighters are now present
in the DRC. The Rwandan Ambassador estimates the number at
15,000. Due to the aging of FDLR members into their forties,
and in many cases their settlement in the DRC, however,
Guehenno agreed that they did not seem poised to attack
Rwanda or capable of doing so.


7. (SBU) Some participants, however, made the point that
Rwandan President Kagame believes that the international
community has not taken the issue of impunity for the
ex-genocidaires in the DRC as seriously as it should. His
relations with Nkunda needed to be seen in the light of
Nkunda's self-appointed role as protector of the Tutsis and
allied ethnic groups, although Nkunda was personally
responsible for atrocities that made him an unacceptable
ally. The Council needs to acknowledge the need to deal with
the leaders of these criminals, who should be brought before
the tribunal in Arusha. P3 plus Two representatives also
pushed for MONUC to continue its active role in containing
militia forces, although Guehenno insisted that the real
solution to the problem of armed militias in the DRC was the
extension of legitimate government authority to all parts of
the country. This underlined the necessity of successful
security sector reform. MONUC would continue active sweeps
to reduce violence against civilians but could not be
expected, given the vastness of the territory, to chase down
and disarm all the armed groups in the Kivus.

SECURITY SECTOR REFORM AND A CONSULTATIVE MECHANISM


8. (SBU) These comments led directly to Guehenno's final
pitch for increased international support for achieving
security sector reform and DDR. Progress was uneven and the
process would be long, but there is no other realistic way to
neutralize armed groups preying on the civilian population.
The inter-mixing of Rwandan soldiers into DRC battalions is a
new cause for concern. The negative experience with mixing
of armed groups in the case of Nkunda underlined the
necessity of genuine integration of forces, especially in the
ethnically tense Kivus.


9. (SBU) On the issue of a consultative mechanism for the
main players in the international community to communicate
with the government, French Ambassador de La Sabliere
provided an account of the SC mission's discussions of this
proposal in Kinshasa. He noted the evident sensitivity of
President Kabila about recreating the mechanisms of the
transition but also Kabila's expressed openness to a formal
or informal dialogue with the international community. USUN
PolMinCouns noted that there seemed to be a clear preference
for an informal arrangement.


9. (SBU) Most delegations expressed willingness to have a
group of ambassadors from like-minded states engage in
regular, informal meetings and to periodically consult
directly with President Kabila. These meetings would be
coupled with ongoing technical exchanges facilitated by
MONUC. Guehenno encouraged the P3 plus Two representatives
in Kinshasa to organize themselves for such a dialogue in
cooperation with MONUC. He believed this group would be the
most appropriate interlocutor for such a high level dialogue
with the GDRC. One dissenting note came from South African
Ambassador Kumalo, who said that Kabila had made clear on a
recent visit to Pretoria his unwillingness to entertain any
sort of standing consultative mechanism. The sensitivities
of a sovereign elected government had to be respected.
Kumalo then went on to suggest that an informal dialogue with
President Kabila may not be appropriate now that there is an
elected government in place. Rather an informal dialogue
should be maintained with PM Gizenga and his ministers, since
the PM's office is the working head of the Cabinet.

KHALILZAD